logo
Canada

Central Nova


MP elect: Sean Fraser (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Central Nova


Liberal Sean Fraser*
Conservative Brycen Jenkins
NDP Jesiah MacDonald
Green Gerald Romsa
PPC Charles MacEachern
Independent Alexander MacKenzie

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Central Nova 52% ± 0%▼ LPC 43% ± 0%▲ CPC 3% ± 0%▼ NDP LPC 2025 52.0% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Central Nova 98%▼ LPC 2%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Central Nova

LPC 52% ± 0% CPC 43% ± 0% NDP 3% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Central Nova 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 45% CPC 37% NDP 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 54% CPC 34% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 54% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 57% CPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 58% CPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 58% CPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 56% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 56% CPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 57% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 56% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 56% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 56% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 57% CPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 57% CPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 57% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 56% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 55% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 55% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 55% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 55% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 55% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 55% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 54% CPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 54% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 54% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 54% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 54% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 54% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 52% CPC 43% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Central Nova

LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Central Nova



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 52% ± 0% 44.2% 44.3% 52.0% CPC 43% ± 0% 29.4% 32.8% 42.7% NDP 3% ± 0% 14.3% 16.1% 3.3% GPC 1% ± 0% 9.3% 1.5% 0.9% PPC 1% ± 0% 2.2% 4.0% 0.7% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.