logo
Canada

Recent electoral history | Central Nova


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 48% ± 7% 44.2% 44.3% 51.9% CPC 41% ± 7% 29.4% 32.8% 42.7% NDP 7% ± 4% 14.3% 16.1% 3.3% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.2% 4.0% 0.7%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Canada flag

338Canada Central Nova projection

Latest update: January 25, 2026

Central Nova 40% 55% 48% ± 7% LPC 34% 48% 41% ± 7% CPC 3% 10% 7% ± 4% NDP LPC 2025 51.9% 338Canada vote projection | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Central Nova 85%▲ LPC 15%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Central Nova

LPC 48% ± 7% CPC 41% ± 7% NDP 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Central Nova 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND January 25, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 54% CPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 54% CPC 37% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 54% CPC 37% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 52% CPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 52% CPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 52% CPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 52% CPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 52% CPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 52% CPC 42% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 54% CPC 41% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 54% CPC 40% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 51% CPC 40% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 51% CPC 41% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 51% CPC 40% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 7% GPC 2% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 7% GPC 2% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 7% GPC 2% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 7% GPC 2% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 7% GPC 2% 2026-01-25

Odds of winning | Central Nova

LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 25, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2026-01-25


Flag of Canada

Demographic data | Central Nova

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 98.9% English 0.4% French 0.1% Tagalog 0.1% Arabic 0.1% Spanish 0.1% Mi'kmaq 0.1% GermanCentral NovaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 11.5% No diploma 27.7% High school 10.9% Trade 29.3% College / Cégep 1.9% Some university 13.2% Bachelor's 5.5% PostgraduateCentral NovaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 96.2% Not visible minority 3.8% Visible minority 1.8% Black 0.4% South Asian 0.4% Filipino 0.3% Chinese 0.2% Latin American 0.2% ArabCentral NovaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 36.7% No Religion 23.0% Catholic 10.2% United Church 9.5% Anglican 8.3% Presbyterian 3.6% Christian (n.o.s.) 3.2% Baptist 2.2% Other ChristianCentral NovaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 80.8% Owner 18.8% Renter 0.4% Community housingCentral NovaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 49.5% Employed 43.5% Not in labour force 7.0% UnemployedCentral NovaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 95.4% Non-Indigenous 4.6% Indigenous identity 2.4% First Nations 1.9% Metis 0.1% Others 0.1% MultipleCentral NovaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 93.7% Car / truck / van 3.2% Walking 2.2% Other 0.8% Public transit 0.1% BicycleCentral NovaSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.