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Canada

Central Nova


MP: Sean Fraser (LPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
LPC likely

Recent electoral history | Central Nova


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 55% ± 8% 44.2% 44.3% 51.9% CPC 39% ± 8% 29.4% 32.8% 42.7% NDP 4% ± 3% 14.3% 16.1% 3.3% GPC 1% ± 1% 9.3% 1.5% 0.9% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.2% 4.0% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Nova-Centre


Central Nova 55% ± 8% LPC 39% ± 8% CPC 4% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 51.9% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Central Nova 99%▲ LPC 1%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Central Nova

LPC 55% ± 8% CPC 39% ± 8% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Central Nova 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 50% LPC 29% NDP 16% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 50% LPC 29% NDP 16% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 49% LPC 30% NDP 16% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 48% LPC 31% NDP 15% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 46% LPC 34% NDP 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 12% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 44% CPC 38% NDP 12% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 45% CPC 37% NDP 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 54% CPC 34% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 54% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 57% CPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 58% CPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 58% CPC 33% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 56% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 56% CPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 57% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 56% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 56% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 56% CPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 57% CPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 57% CPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 57% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 56% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 55% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 55% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 55% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 55% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 55% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 55% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 54% CPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 54% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 54% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 54% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 54% CPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 54% CPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 52% CPC 43% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 52% CPC 43% NDP 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 52% CPC 43% NDP 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 52% CPC 43% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 52% CPC 43% NDP 3% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 52% CPC 42% NDP 3% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 54% CPC 41% NDP 3% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 55% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Central Nova

LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader