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Canada


Cumberland–Colchester (federal)


MP: Stephen Ellis (CPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

CPC safe hold
Cumberland–Colchester 60% ± 7% 22% ± 6%▼ 12% ± 5% 3% ± 3% CPC 2021 46.14% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Cumberland–Colchester >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Cumberland–Colchester

LPC 22% ± 6% CPC 60% ± 7% NDP 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Cumberland–Colchester 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP

Odds of winning | Cumberland–Colchester

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Cumberland–Colchester



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 26.5% 35.7% 46.14% 60% ± 7% LPC 63.7% 36.7% 34.25% 22% ± 6% NDP 5.7% 12.0% 12.2% 12% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.3% 4.14% 2% ± 2% GPC 3.6% 13.2% 2.6% 3% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.5% 0.68% 0% ± 0%