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Canada

338Canada federal projection | Quebec, 78 districts


Latest update: September 24, 2023
Quebec 33% ± 4%▲ 30% ± 5% 20% ± 4%▼ 12% ± 3% 4% ± 2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Quebec, 78 federal districts 37 [31-43] 30 [22-35] 10 [9-13] 1 [1-3] 338Canada seat projection | September 24, 2023
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Quebec

LPC 30% ± 5% CPC 20% ± 4% NDP 12% ± 3% GPC 4% ± 2% BQ 33% ± 4% 338Canada Popular vote projection % | Quebec 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Seat projection | Quebec

LPC 30 [22-35] CPC 10 [9-13] NDP 1 [1-3] BQ 37 [31-43] 338Canada seat projection | Quebec 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2021)
22 8 2 5 37 32
19 2 4 5 30 35
9 1 0 0 10 10
1 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts


Latest update: September 24, 2023
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
24001 Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ safe hold
24002 Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ safe hold
24003 Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold
24004 Alfred-Pellan LPC safe hold
24005 Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation Toss up LPC/BQ
24006 Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ safe hold
24007 Beauce CPC safe hold
24008 Beauport–Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ
24009 Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel BQ safe hold
24010 Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis CPC safe hold
24011 Beloeil–Chambly BQ safe hold
24012 Berthier–Maskinongé BQ safe hold
24013 Thérèse-De Blainville BQ likely hold
24014 Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ safe hold
24015 Bourassa LPC safe hold
24016 Brome–Missisquoi BQ leaning gain
24017 Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold
24018 Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ safe hold
24019 Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold
24020 Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix BQ likely hold
24021 Châteauguay–Lacolle BQ leaning gain
24022 Chicoutimi–Le Fjord CPC likely hold
24023 Compton–Stanstead Toss up LPC/BQ
24024 Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe hold
24025 Drummond BQ safe hold
24026 Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up LPC/BQ
24027 Gatineau LPC safe hold
24028 Hochelaga Toss up LPC/BQ
24029 Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold
24030 Hull–Aylmer LPC safe hold
24031 Joliette BQ safe hold
24032 Jonquière BQ likely hold
24033 La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ safe hold
24034 La Prairie BQ likely hold
24035 Lac-Saint-Jean BQ safe hold
24036 Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold
24037 LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC likely hold
24038 Laurentides–Labelle BQ safe hold
24039 Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP
24040 Laval–Les Îles LPC safe hold
24041 Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne Toss up LPC/BQ
24042 Lévis–Lotbinière CPC safe hold
24043 Longueuil–Saint-Hubert BQ likely hold
24044 Louis-Hébert LPC leaning hold
24045 Louis-Saint-Laurent CPC safe hold
24046 Manicouagan BQ safe hold
24047 Mégantic–L’Érable CPC safe hold
24048 Mirabel BQ safe hold
24049 Montarville BQ likely hold
24050 Montcalm BQ safe hold
24051 Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup CPC safe hold
24052 Mount Royal LPC safe hold
24053 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe hold
24054 Outremont LPC leaning hold
24055 Papineau LPC likely hold
24056 Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe hold
24057 Pontiac LPC safe hold
24058 Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold
24059 Québec Toss up LPC/BQ
24060 Repentigny BQ safe hold
24061 Richmond–Arthabaska CPC safe hold
24062 Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ likely hold
24063 Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe hold
24064 Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie NDP safe hold
24065 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC leaning hold
24066 Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ safe hold
24067 Saint-Jean BQ safe hold
24068 Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold
24069 Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe hold
24070 Saint-Maurice–Champlain LPC leaning hold
24071 Salaberry–Suroît BQ safe hold
24072 Shefford BQ likely hold
24073 Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ
24074 Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe hold
24075 Terrebonne BQ safe hold
24076 Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ
24077 Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold
24078 Vimy LPC safe hold