logo
Canada

338Canada federal projection | Quebec, 78 districts


Latest update: March 9, 2025
Quebec 32% ± 6% LPC 29% ± 5%▼ BQ 24% ± 4% CPC 8% ± 3%▼ NDP 3% ± 2% GPC 338Canada federal vote projection | March 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Quebec, 78 federal districts 36 [30-40] LPC 28 [23-35] BQ 13 [10-15] CPC 1 [1-1] NDP 338Canada seat projection | March 9, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Federal vote projection | Quebec

LPC 32% ± 6% CPC 24% ± 4% NDP 8% ± 3% BQ 29% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Quebec 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ March 9, 2025 2024-01-14 BQ 30% LPC 30% CPC 22% NDP 12% 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 LPC 30% BQ 30% CPC 21% NDP 12% 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 BQ 32% LPC 29% CPC 21% NDP 12% 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 BQ 32% LPC 30% CPC 21% NDP 12% 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 BQ 32% LPC 29% CPC 22% NDP 12% 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 BQ 31% LPC 27% CPC 24% NDP 12% 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 BQ 32% LPC 27% CPC 24% NDP 12% 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 BQ 31% LPC 26% CPC 25% NDP 12% 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 BQ 31% CPC 26% LPC 25% NDP 13% 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 BQ 31% CPC 26% LPC 25% NDP 13% 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 BQ 31% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 13% 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 BQ 32% LPC 25% CPC 24% NDP 13% 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 BQ 33% LPC 26% CPC 23% NDP 12% 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 BQ 32% LPC 27% CPC 24% NDP 12% 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 BQ 34% LPC 27% CPC 22% NDP 11% 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 BQ 34% LPC 26% CPC 23% NDP 10% 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 BQ 34% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 BQ 34% LPC 26% CPC 25% NDP 10% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 35% LPC 26% CPC 23% NDP 10% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 35% LPC 27% CPC 23% NDP 10% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 33% LPC 27% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 32% LPC 27% CPC 25% NDP 10% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 31% LPC 27% CPC 25% NDP 10% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 33% CPC 25% LPC 25% NDP 11% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 33% CPC 25% LPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 33% CPC 25% LPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 33% LPC 25% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 33% LPC 25% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 33% LPC 25% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 33% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 33% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 32% LPC 25% CPC 25% NDP 11% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 32% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 31% LPC 27% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 32% LPC 27% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 33% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 33% LPC 25% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 34% LPC 24% CPC 24% NDP 12% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 34% LPC 24% CPC 24% NDP 12% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 34% LPC 24% CPC 23% NDP 12% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 34% LPC 25% CPC 23% NDP 12% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 34% LPC 25% CPC 22% NDP 11% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 35% LPC 25% CPC 23% NDP 11% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 35% LPC 24% CPC 23% NDP 11% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 35% LPC 24% CPC 23% NDP 11% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 35% CPC 24% LPC 23% NDP 11% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 35% CPC 24% LPC 23% NDP 12% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 35% CPC 24% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 35% CPC 23% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 BQ 35% CPC 25% LPC 21% NDP 12% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 BQ 36% CPC 25% LPC 21% NDP 12% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 BQ 36% CPC 25% LPC 21% NDP 12% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 BQ 36% CPC 26% LPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 36% CPC 26% LPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 35% CPC 26% LPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 35% CPC 25% LPC 22% NDP 11% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 33% LPC 25% CPC 25% NDP 11% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 33% LPC 27% CPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 32% LPC 29% CPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 32% BQ 30% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 32% BQ 29% CPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-03-09 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Federal seat projection | Quebec

LPC 36 [30-40] CPC 13 [10-15] NDP 1 [1-1] BQ 28 [23-35] Seat projection | Quebec 50 40 30 20 10 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ March 9, 2025 2024-01-14 BQ 34 LPC 31 CPC 12 NDP 1 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 LPC 33 BQ 32 CPC 12 NDP 1 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 BQ 38 LPC 29 CPC 10 NDP 1 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 BQ 37 LPC 30 CPC 10 NDP 1 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 BQ 36 LPC 29 CPC 12 NDP 1 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 BQ 38 LPC 26 CPC 13 NDP 1 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 BQ 38 LPC 26 CPC 13 NDP 1 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 BQ 38 LPC 26 CPC 13 NDP 1 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 BQ 37 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 2 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 BQ 36 LPC 25 CPC 15 NDP 2 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 13 NDP 2 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 13 NDP 2 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 BQ 38 LPC 26 CPC 13 NDP 1 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 BQ 38 LPC 26 CPC 13 NDP 1 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 BQ 40 LPC 25 CPC 12 NDP 1 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 BQ 39 LPC 25 CPC 13 NDP 1 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 40 LPC 25 CPC 12 NDP 1 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 40 LPC 25 CPC 12 NDP 1 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 37 LPC 26 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 36 LPC 27 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 34 LPC 29 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 38 LPC 26 CPC 13 NDP 1 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 37 LPC 26 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 37 LPC 26 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 36 LPC 27 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 34 LPC 29 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 36 LPC 27 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 40 LPC 24 CPC 13 NDP 1 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 42 LPC 21 CPC 13 NDP 2 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 42 LPC 21 CPC 13 NDP 2 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 42 LPC 21 CPC 13 NDP 2 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 42 LPC 21 CPC 13 NDP 2 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 43 LPC 21 CPC 12 NDP 2 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 44 LPC 21 CPC 11 NDP 2 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 44 LPC 21 CPC 11 NDP 2 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 44 LPC 21 CPC 11 NDP 2 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 44 LPC 21 CPC 11 NDP 2 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 43 LPC 21 CPC 12 NDP 2 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 42 LPC 21 CPC 13 NDP 2 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 45 LPC 20 CPC 11 NDP 2 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 45 LPC 20 CPC 11 NDP 2 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 BQ 45 LPC 20 CPC 11 NDP 2 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 BQ 45 LPC 20 CPC 11 NDP 2 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 BQ 45 LPC 19 CPC 12 NDP 2 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 BQ 45 LPC 17 CPC 14 NDP 2 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 42 LPC 18 CPC 16 NDP 2 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 42 LPC 19 CPC 15 NDP 2 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 44 LPC 20 CPC 12 NDP 2 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 40 LPC 24 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 37 LPC 27 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 33 LPC 32 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 36 BQ 28 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 36 BQ 28 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-09 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Seat projection | Quebec


Latest update: March 9, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2021)
21 10 4 1 36 33
12 13 3 0 28 34
9 0 3 1 13 10
1 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts | Quebec


Latest update: March 9, 2025
Electoral district Transposed
2021 winner
Latest projection
24001 Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ likely
24002 Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ safe
24003 Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe
24004 Alfred-Pellan LPC safe
24005 Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LPC likely
24006 Beauce CPC safe
24007 Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ safe
24008 Beauport—Limoilou CPC leaning
24009 Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe
24010 Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe
24011 Beloeil—Chambly BQ safe
24012 Berthier—Maskinongé BQ likely
24013 Bourassa LPC safe
24014 Brome—Missisquoi LPC leaning
24015 Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe
24016 Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe
24017 Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC leaning
24018 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ
24019 Compton—Stanstead LPC likely
24020 Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe
24021 Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ likely
24022 Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe
24023 Drummond BQ likely
24024 Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj LPC leaning
24025 Gatineau LPC safe
24026 Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC likely
24027 Honoré-Mercier LPC safe
24028 Hull—Aylmer LPC safe
24029 Joliette—Manawan BQ safe
24030 Jonquière BQ likely
24031 La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely
24032 La Prairie—Atateken BQ likely
24033 Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely
24034 Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe
24035 LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC likely
24036 Laurentides—Labelle BQ safe
24037 Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC safe
24038 Laval—Les Îles LPC safe
24039 Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ likely
24040 Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe
24041 Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LPC likely
24042 Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ leaning
24043 Louis-Hébert LPC leaning
24044 Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe
24045 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC likely
24046 Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe
24047 Mirabel BQ safe
24048 Mount Royal LPC safe
24049 Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie BQ leaning
24050 Montcalm BQ safe
24051 Montmorency—Charlevoix CPC leaning
24052 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe
24053 Outremont LPC safe
24054 Papineau LPC safe
24055 Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ safe
24056 Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe
24057 Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC likely
24058 Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe
24059 Québec Centre LPC likely
24060 Repentigny BQ likely
24061 Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe
24062 Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ safe
24063 Rivière-des-Milles-Îles BQ leaning
24064 Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe
24065 Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP safe
24066 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ safe
24067 Saint-Jean BQ likely
24068 Saint-Laurent LPC safe
24069 Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe
24070 Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC likely
24071 Shefford BQ likely
24072 Sherbrooke LPC likely
24073 Terrebonne BQ likely
24074 Thérèse-De Blainville Toss up LPC/BQ
24075 Trois-Rivières CPC leaning
24076 Vaudreuil LPC safe
24077 Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe
24078 Vimy LPC safe