logo
Canada

338Canada federal projection | Quebec, 78 districts


Latest update: April 21, 2024
Quebec 34% ± 5%▲ 27% ± 4% 22% ± 4%▼ 11% ± 3%▼ 4% ± 2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Quebec, 78 federal districts 40▲ [33-45] 25▼ [21-31] 12▼ [9-15] 1 [1-2] 338Canada seat projection | April 21, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Quebec

LPC 27% ± 4% CPC 22% ± 4% NDP 11% ± 3% GPC 4% ± 2% BQ 34% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Quebec 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Seat projection | Quebec

LPC 25 [21-31] CPC 12 [9-15] NDP 1 [1-2] BQ 40 [33-45] Seat projection | Quebec 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2021)
27 4 6 3 40 34.0
18 4 3 0 25 33.0
9 1 0 2 12 10.0
1 0 0 0 1 1.0
0 0 0 0 0 0.0

List of electoral districts


Latest update: April 21, 2024
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
24001 Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ safe hold
24002 Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ safe hold
24003 Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold
24004 Alfred-Pellan LPC safe hold
24005 Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ leaning gain
24006 Beauce CPC safe hold
24007 Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ safe hold
24008 Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ
24009 Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe hold
24010 Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe hold
24011 Beloeil—Chambly BQ safe hold
24012 Berthier—Maskinongé BQ leaning hold
24013 Bourassa LPC safe hold
24014 Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely gain
24015 Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold
24016 Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe hold
24017 Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely hold
24018 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CPC likely hold
24019 Compton—Stanstead BQ leaning gain
24020 Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe hold
24021 Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ safe hold
24022 Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe hold
24023 Drummond BQ safe hold
24024 Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely hold
24025 Gatineau LPC likely hold
24026 Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Toss up LPC/BQ
24027 Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold
24028 Hull—Aylmer LPC safe hold
24029 Joliette—Manawan BQ safe hold
24030 Jonquière BQ likely hold
24031 La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ safe hold
24032 La Prairie—Atateken BQ safe hold
24033 Lac-Saint-Jean BQ safe hold
24034 Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold
24035 LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC likely hold
24036 Laurentides—Labelle BQ safe hold
24037 Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC leaning hold
24038 Laval—Les-Îles LPC safe hold
24039 Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ safe hold
24040 Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe hold
24041 Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning gain
24042 Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ safe hold
24043 Louis-Hébert Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
24044 Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe hold
24045 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC leaning hold
24046 Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe hold
24047 Mirabel BQ safe hold
24048 Mount Royal LPC safe hold
24049 Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie BQ safe hold
24050 Montcalm BQ safe hold
24051 Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
24052 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe hold
24053 Outremont LPC likely hold
24054 Papineau LPC safe hold
24055 Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ safe hold
24056 Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe hold
24057 Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC likely hold
24058 Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe hold
24059 Québec Centre BQ leaning gain
24060 Repentigny BQ safe hold
24061 Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe hold
24062 Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ safe hold
24063 Rivière-des-Milles-Îles BQ safe hold
24064 Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe hold
24065 Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP safe hold
24066 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ safe hold
24067 Saint-Jean BQ safe hold
24068 Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold
24069 Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe hold
24070 Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC leaning hold
24071 Shefford BQ safe hold
24072 Sherbrooke BQ leaning gain
24073 Terrebonne BQ safe hold
24074 Thérèse-De Blainville BQ safe hold
24075 Trois-Rivières Toss up CPC/BQ
24076 Vaudreuil LPC safe hold
24077 Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold
24078 Vimy LPC safe hold