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338Canada federal projection | Quebec, 78 districts


Latest update: April 30, 2025
Quebec 42% ± 1%▲ LPC 28% ± 1%▲ BQ 23% ± 1%▼ CPC 4% ± 0%▼ NDP 338Canada federal vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Quebec, 78 federal districts 43▲ [41-47] LPC 23 [20-26] BQ 11▼ [8-12] CPC 1 [1-1] NDP 338Canada seat projection | April 30, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Federal vote projection | Quebec

LPC 42% ± 1% CPC 23% ± 1% NDP 4% ± 0% BQ 28% ± 1% Popular vote projection % | Quebec 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP BQ April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 32% BQ 29% CPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 34% BQ 29% CPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 36% BQ 28% CPC 23% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 36% BQ 28% CPC 23% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 36% BQ 28% CPC 23% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 36% BQ 28% CPC 23% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 36% BQ 28% CPC 23% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 36% BQ 28% CPC 23% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 38% BQ 27% CPC 22% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 39% BQ 27% CPC 22% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 39% BQ 27% CPC 22% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 40% BQ 26% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 40% BQ 25% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 40% BQ 25% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 41% BQ 25% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 42% BQ 24% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 42% BQ 24% CPC 24% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 43% BQ 23% CPC 23% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 43% BQ 24% CPC 23% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 43% BQ 24% CPC 23% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 43% BQ 24% CPC 23% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 43% CPC 23% BQ 23% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 44% BQ 24% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 43% BQ 24% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 44% BQ 24% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 44% BQ 24% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 43% BQ 24% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 43% BQ 24% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 42% BQ 24% CPC 24% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 43% BQ 24% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 43% BQ 24% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 43% BQ 25% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 43% BQ 25% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 42% BQ 25% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 42% BQ 25% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 42% BQ 25% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 42% BQ 26% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 41% BQ 26% CPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 41% BQ 26% CPC 24% NDP 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 40% BQ 26% CPC 24% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 40% BQ 26% CPC 24% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 40% BQ 26% CPC 24% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 41% BQ 26% CPC 24% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 42% BQ 28% CPC 23% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Federal seat projection | Quebec

LPC 43 [41-47] CPC 11 [8-12] NDP 1 [1-1] BQ 23 [20-26] Seat projection | Quebec 50 40 30 20 10 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP BQ April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 36 BQ 28 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 37 BQ 27 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 39 BQ 25 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 39 BQ 25 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 39 BQ 25 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 39 BQ 25 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 39 BQ 25 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 39 BQ 25 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 40 BQ 24 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 40 BQ 24 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 41 BQ 23 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 41 BQ 23 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 43 BQ 21 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 45 BQ 19 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 43 BQ 21 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 46 BQ 18 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 47 BQ 17 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 49 BQ 16 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 48 BQ 17 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 49 BQ 16 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 49 BQ 16 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 49 BQ 16 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 49 BQ 16 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 46 BQ 19 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 48 BQ 17 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48 BQ 17 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 47 BQ 18 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 47 BQ 18 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 45 BQ 20 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 46 BQ 19 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 45 BQ 20 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 45 BQ 20 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 43 BQ 22 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 43 BQ 22 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 43 BQ 22 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 42 BQ 23 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 42 BQ 23 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 43 BQ 22 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 41 BQ 24 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 41 BQ 24 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 42 BQ 23 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 42 BQ 23 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 42 BQ 23 CPC 12 NDP 1 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 43 BQ 23 CPC 11 NDP 1 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Seat projection | Quebec


Latest update: April 30, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2025)
37 3 2 1 43 43
11 9 1 2 23 23
7 1 1 2 11 11
0 1 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts | Quebec


Latest update: April 30, 2025
Electoral district Transposed
2021 winner
Latest projection
24001 Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou LPC leaning
24002 Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ safe
24003 Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe
24004 Alfred-Pellan LPC safe
24005 Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation LPC safe
24006 Beauce CPC safe
24007 Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ safe
24008 Beauport—Limoilou LPC likely
24009 Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe
24010 Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe
24011 Beloeil—Chambly BQ safe
24012 Berthier—Maskinongé BQ safe
24013 Bourassa LPC safe
24014 Brome—Missisquoi LPC safe
24015 Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe
24016 Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC likely
24017 Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville LPC safe
24018 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
24019 Compton—Stanstead LPC safe
24020 Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe
24021 Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ safe
24022 Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe
24023 Drummond BQ safe
24024 Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely
24025 Gatineau LPC safe
24026 Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est LPC safe
24027 Honoré-Mercier LPC safe
24028 Hull—Aylmer LPC safe
24029 Joliette—Manawan BQ safe
24030 Jonquière BQ likely
24031 La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ likely
24032 La Prairie—Atateken LPC likely
24033 Lac-Saint-Jean BQ safe
24034 Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe
24035 LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC safe
24036 Laurentides—Labelle BQ likely
24037 Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC safe
24038 Laval—Les Îles LPC safe
24039 Les Pays-d’en-Haut LPC leaning
24040 Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe
24041 Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne LPC safe
24042 Longueuil—Saint-Hubert Toss up LPC/BQ
24043 Louis-Hébert LPC safe
24044 Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe
24045 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC safe
24046 Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe
24047 Mirabel BQ likely
24048 Mount Royal LPC likely
24049 Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie LPC safe
24050 Montcalm BQ safe
24051 Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
24052 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe
24053 Outremont LPC safe
24054 Papineau LPC safe
24055 Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ likely
24056 Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe
24057 Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC safe
24058 Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe
24059 Québec Centre LPC safe
24060 Repentigny BQ leaning
24061 Richmond—Arthabaska CPC leaning
24062 Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ likely
24063 Rivière-des-Milles-Îles LPC safe
24064 Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe
24065 Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP likely
24066 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ likely
24067 Saint-Jean BQ likely
24068 Saint-Laurent LPC safe
24069 Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe
24070 Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC safe
24071 Shefford Toss up LPC/BQ
24072 Sherbrooke LPC safe
24073 Terrebonne Toss up LPC/BQ
24074 Thérèse-De Blainville LPC safe
24075 Trois-Rivières LPC safe
24076 Vaudreuil LPC safe
24077 Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe
24078 Vimy LPC safe