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Canada

338Canada federal projection | Quebec, 78 districts


Latest update: February 9, 2025
Quebec 33% ± 5%▼ BQ 25% ± 5%▲ LPC 25% ± 4% CPC 11% ± 3% NDP 3% ± 2% GPC 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Quebec, 78 federal districts 40▼ [31-47] BQ 24▲ [18-32] LPC 13▲ [9-16] CPC 1▼ [1-3] NDP 338Canada seat projection | February 9, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Quebec

LPC 25% ± 5% CPC 25% ± 4% NDP 11% ± 3% BQ 33% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Quebec 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ February 9, 2025 2024-01-14 BQ 30% LPC 30% CPC 22% NDP 12% 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 LPC 30% BQ 30% CPC 21% NDP 12% 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 BQ 32% LPC 29% CPC 21% NDP 12% 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 BQ 32% LPC 30% CPC 21% NDP 12% 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 BQ 32% LPC 29% CPC 22% NDP 12% 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 BQ 31% LPC 27% CPC 24% NDP 12% 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 BQ 32% LPC 27% CPC 24% NDP 12% 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 BQ 31% LPC 26% CPC 25% NDP 12% 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 BQ 31% CPC 26% LPC 25% NDP 13% 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 BQ 31% CPC 26% LPC 25% NDP 13% 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 BQ 31% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 13% 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 BQ 32% LPC 25% CPC 24% NDP 13% 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 BQ 33% LPC 26% CPC 23% NDP 12% 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 BQ 32% LPC 27% CPC 24% NDP 12% 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 BQ 34% LPC 27% CPC 22% NDP 11% 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 BQ 34% LPC 26% CPC 23% NDP 10% 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 BQ 34% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 BQ 34% LPC 26% CPC 25% NDP 10% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 35% LPC 26% CPC 23% NDP 10% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 35% LPC 27% CPC 23% NDP 10% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 33% LPC 27% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 32% LPC 27% CPC 25% NDP 10% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 31% LPC 27% CPC 25% NDP 10% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 33% CPC 25% LPC 25% NDP 11% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 33% CPC 25% LPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 33% CPC 25% LPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 33% LPC 25% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 33% LPC 25% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 33% LPC 25% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 33% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 33% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 32% LPC 25% CPC 25% NDP 11% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 32% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 31% LPC 27% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 32% LPC 27% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 33% LPC 26% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 33% LPC 25% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 34% LPC 24% CPC 24% NDP 12% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 34% LPC 24% CPC 24% NDP 12% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 34% LPC 24% CPC 23% NDP 12% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 34% LPC 25% CPC 23% NDP 12% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 34% LPC 25% CPC 22% NDP 11% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 35% LPC 25% CPC 23% NDP 11% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 35% LPC 24% CPC 23% NDP 11% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 35% LPC 24% CPC 23% NDP 11% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 35% CPC 24% LPC 23% NDP 11% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 35% CPC 24% LPC 23% NDP 12% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 35% CPC 24% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 35% CPC 23% LPC 22% NDP 12% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 BQ 35% CPC 25% LPC 21% NDP 12% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 BQ 36% CPC 25% LPC 21% NDP 12% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 BQ 36% CPC 25% LPC 21% NDP 12% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 BQ 36% CPC 26% LPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 36% CPC 26% LPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 35% CPC 26% LPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 35% CPC 25% LPC 22% NDP 11% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 33% LPC 25% CPC 25% NDP 11% 2025-02-09 ▼ Trudeau resigns

Seat projection | Quebec

LPC 24 [18-32] CPC 13 [9-16] NDP 1 [1-3] BQ 40 [31-47] Seat projection | Quebec 50 40 30 20 10 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ February 9, 2025 2024-01-14 BQ 34 LPC 31 CPC 12 NDP 1 2024-01-14 2024-01-21 LPC 33 BQ 32 CPC 12 NDP 1 2024-01-21 2024-01-28 BQ 38 LPC 29 CPC 10 NDP 1 2024-01-28 2024-02-04 BQ 37 LPC 30 CPC 10 NDP 1 2024-02-04 2024-02-11 BQ 36 LPC 29 CPC 12 NDP 1 2024-02-11 2024-02-18 BQ 38 LPC 26 CPC 13 NDP 1 2024-02-18 2024-02-25 BQ 38 LPC 26 CPC 13 NDP 1 2024-02-25 2024-03-03 BQ 38 LPC 26 CPC 13 NDP 1 2024-03-03 2024-03-10 BQ 37 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 2 2024-03-10 2024-03-17 BQ 36 LPC 25 CPC 15 NDP 2 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 13 NDP 2 2024-03-24 2024-03-31 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 13 NDP 2 2024-03-31 2024-04-07 BQ 38 LPC 26 CPC 13 NDP 1 2024-04-07 2024-04-14 BQ 38 LPC 26 CPC 13 NDP 1 2024-04-14 2024-04-21 BQ 40 LPC 25 CPC 12 NDP 1 2024-04-21 2024-04-28 BQ 39 LPC 25 CPC 13 NDP 1 2024-04-28 2024-05-05 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-05-05 2024-05-12 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 40 LPC 25 CPC 12 NDP 1 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 40 LPC 25 CPC 12 NDP 1 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 37 LPC 26 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 36 LPC 27 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 34 LPC 29 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 38 LPC 25 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 38 LPC 26 CPC 13 NDP 1 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 37 LPC 26 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 37 LPC 26 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 36 LPC 27 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 34 LPC 29 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 36 LPC 27 CPC 14 NDP 1 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 40 LPC 24 CPC 13 NDP 1 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 42 LPC 21 CPC 13 NDP 2 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 42 LPC 21 CPC 13 NDP 2 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 42 LPC 21 CPC 13 NDP 2 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 42 LPC 21 CPC 13 NDP 2 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 43 LPC 21 CPC 12 NDP 2 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 44 LPC 21 CPC 11 NDP 2 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 44 LPC 21 CPC 11 NDP 2 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 44 LPC 21 CPC 11 NDP 2 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 44 LPC 21 CPC 11 NDP 2 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 43 LPC 21 CPC 12 NDP 2 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 42 LPC 21 CPC 13 NDP 2 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 45 LPC 20 CPC 11 NDP 2 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 45 LPC 20 CPC 11 NDP 2 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 BQ 45 LPC 20 CPC 11 NDP 2 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 BQ 45 LPC 20 CPC 11 NDP 2 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 BQ 45 LPC 19 CPC 12 NDP 2 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 BQ 45 LPC 17 CPC 14 NDP 2 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 42 LPC 18 CPC 16 NDP 2 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 42 LPC 19 CPC 15 NDP 2 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 44 LPC 20 CPC 12 NDP 2 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 40 LPC 24 CPC 13 NDP 1 2025-02-09 ▼ Trudeau resigns

Seat projection | Quebec


Latest update: February 9, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2021)
20 12 2 6 40 34
7 13 1 3 24 33
9 0 2 2 13 10
1 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts | Quebec


Latest update: February 9, 2025
Electoral district Transposed
2021 winner		 Latest projection
24001 Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou BQ likely
24002 Abitibi—Témiscamingue BQ safe
24003 Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC likely
24004 Alfred-Pellan LPC leaning
24005 Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ leaning
24006 Beauce CPC safe
24007 Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon BQ safe
24008 Beauport—Limoilou Toss up CPC/BQ
24009 Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak BQ safe
24010 Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC safe
24011 Beloeil—Chambly BQ safe
24012 Berthier—Maskinongé BQ likely
24013 Bourassa LPC safe
24014 Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely
24015 Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC likely
24016 Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles CPC safe
24017 Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely
24018 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Toss up CPC/BQ
24019 Compton—Stanstead BQ leaning
24020 Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata CPC safe
24021 Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan BQ likely
24022 Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC likely
24023 Drummond BQ likely
24024 Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely
24025 Gatineau LPC likely
24026 Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Toss up LPC/BQ
24027 Honoré-Mercier LPC safe
24028 Hull—Aylmer LPC safe
24029 Joliette—Manawan BQ safe
24030 Jonquière BQ likely
24031 La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ safe
24032 La Prairie—Atateken BQ safe
24033 Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely
24034 Lac-Saint-Louis LPC likely
24035 LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ
24036 Laurentides—Labelle BQ safe
24037 Laurier—Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP
24038 Laval—Les Îles LPC likely
24039 Les Pays-d’en-Haut BQ safe
24040 Lévis—Lotbinière CPC safe
24041 Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne Toss up LPC/BQ
24042 Longueuil—Saint-Hubert BQ likely
24043 Louis-Hébert CPC leaning
24044 Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk CPC safe
24045 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Toss up LPC/BQ
24046 Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière CPC safe
24047 Mirabel BQ safe
24048 Mount Royal LPC likely
24049 Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie BQ likely
24050 Montcalm BQ safe
24051 Montmorency—Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
24052 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe
24053 Outremont LPC likely
24054 Papineau LPC likely
24055 Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères BQ safe
24056 Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC likely
24057 Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC likely
24058 Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier CPC safe
24059 Québec Centre Toss up LPC/BQ
24060 Repentigny BQ safe
24061 Richmond—Arthabaska CPC safe
24062 Rimouski—La Matapédia BQ safe
24063 Rivière-des-Milles-Îles BQ safe
24064 Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe
24065 Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP safe
24066 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton BQ safe
24067 Saint-Jean BQ safe
24068 Saint-Laurent LPC safe
24069 Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe
24070 Saint-Maurice—Champlain Toss up LPC/BQ
24071 Shefford BQ safe
24072 Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ
24073 Terrebonne BQ safe
24074 Thérèse-De Blainville BQ likely
24075 Trois-Rivières CPC leaning
24076 Vaudreuil LPC likely
24077 Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe
24078 Vimy LPC likely