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Canada


Willowdale (federal)


MP: Ali Ehsassi (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

CPC leaning gain
Willowdale 44% ± 7% 36% ± 7%▼ 12% ± 4% 6% ± 3% LPC 2021 51.15% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Willowdale 90%▲ 10%▼ <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Willowdale

LPC 36% ± 7% CPC 44% ± 7% NDP 12% ± 4% GPC 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Willowdale 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Willowdale

LPC 10% CPC 90% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Willowdale



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 53.4% 49.0% 51.15% 36% ± 7% CPC 37.0% 36.2% 33.9% 44% ± 7% NDP 7.0% 9.3% 10.29% 12% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.2% 2.68% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.2% 3.7% 1.98% 6% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0% ± 0%