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Recent electoral history | Wellington—Halton Hills North


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 45% ± 7% 42.2% 46.8% 50.6% LPC 45% ± 7% 30.1% 30.3% 44.4% NDP 4% ± 3% 9.6% 12.0% 2.0% GPC 4% ± 3% 15.8% 4.7% 2.1% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.0% 6.2% 0.8%

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338Canada Wellington—Halton Hills North projection

Latest update: March 8, 2026

Wellington—Halton Hills North 38% 52% 45% ± 7% CPC 38% 52% 45% ± 7% LPC 1% 7% 4% ± 3% NDP 1% 7% 4% ± 3% GPC CPC 2025 50.6% 338Canada vote projection | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Wellington—Halton Hills North 51%▼ CPC 49%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Wellington—Halton Hills North

LPC 45% ± 7% CPC 45% ± 7% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Wellington—Halton Hills North 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 4% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 4% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 4% GPC 4% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 51% LPC 44% GPC 2% NDP 2% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 51% LPC 44% GPC 2% NDP 2% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 51% LPC 44% GPC 2% NDP 2% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 51% LPC 44% GPC 2% NDP 2% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 51% LPC 44% GPC 2% NDP 2% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 50% LPC 45% GPC 2% NDP 2% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 50% LPC 45% GPC 2% NDP 2% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 49% LPC 45% GPC 2% NDP 2% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 2% GPC 2% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 2% GPC 2% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 2% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 2% GPC 2% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 48% LPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 49% LPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 50% LPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 50% LPC 42% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 50% LPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 50% LPC 42% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 50% LPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 50% LPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 49% LPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 49% LPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 50% LPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 50% LPC 43% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 3% GPC 3% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 48% LPC 43% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 5% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 5% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 5% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 5% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 47% LPC 41% NDP 6% GPC 5% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 47% LPC 42% NDP 5% GPC 5% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 47% LPC 43% NDP 5% GPC 4% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 CPC 46% LPC 44% NDP 5% GPC 4% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 CPC 47% LPC 43% NDP 4% GPC 4% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 CPC 46% LPC 44% NDP 4% GPC 4% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 CPC 45% LPC 45% NDP 4% GPC 4% 2026-03-08

Odds of winning | Wellington—Halton Hills North

LPC 49% CPC 51% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 61% LPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 77% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2026-03-08


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Demographic data | Wellington—Halton Hills North

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 93.6% English 1.0% Punjabi 0.8% Mandarin 0.4% Spanish 0.3% Polish 0.3% Urdu 0.2% FrenchWellington—Halton Hills NorthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 6.8% No diploma 23.9% High school 6.5% Trade 27.2% College / Cégep 2.0% Some university 22.4% Bachelor's 11.2% PostgraduateWellington—Halton Hills NorthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 85.7% Not visible minority 14.3% Visible minority 5.4% South Asian 2.0% Chinese 1.7% Black 1.0% Filipino 0.9% Latin American 0.7% West AsianWellington—Halton Hills NorthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 37.1% No Religion 23.6% Catholic 8.4% Christian (n.o.s.) 6.1% United Church 5.0% Anglican 3.5% Presbyterian 2.8% Other Christian 2.6% MuslimWellington—Halton Hills NorthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 84.3% Owner 15.7% RenterWellington—Halton Hills NorthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 62.1% Employed 32.1% Not in labour force 5.8% UnemployedWellington—Halton Hills NorthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 98.4% Non-Indigenous 1.6% Indigenous identity 0.8% First Nations 0.6% Metis 0.1% OthersWellington—Halton Hills NorthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 93.3% Car / truck / van 3.2% Walking 1.8% Other 1.2% Public transit 0.5% BicycleWellington—Halton Hills NorthSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.