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Canada

Wellington—Halton Hills North



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Wellington—Halton Hills North


Liberal Sean Carscadden
Conservative Michael Chong*
NDP Andrew Bascombe
Green Liam Stiles
PPC Syl Carle
Centrist Ian Smith

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Wellington—Halton Hills North 49% ± 8% CPC 38% ± 8% LPC 5% ± 4% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC CPC 2021 46.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Wellington—Halton Hills North 94%▼ CPC 6%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Wellington—Halton Hills North

LPC 38% ± 8% CPC 49% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Wellington—Halton Hills North 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 53% LPC 27% NDP 10% GPC 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 51% LPC 29% NDP 9% GPC 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 8% GPC 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 8% GPC 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 8% GPC 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 8% GPC 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 49% LPC 32% NDP 8% GPC 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 50% LPC 32% NDP 8% GPC 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 49% LPC 34% NDP 7% GPC 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 50% LPC 34% NDP 7% GPC 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 7% GPC 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 6% GPC 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 49% LPC 36% GPC 6% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 49% LPC 36% GPC 6% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 50% LPC 36% GPC 6% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 5% GPC 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 51% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 50% LPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 50% LPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 51% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 51% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 50% LPC 39% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 5% GPC 4% 2025-04-15 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Wellington—Halton Hills North

LPC 6% CPC 94% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Wellington—Halton Hills North



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 42.2% 46.8% 49% ± 8% LPC 30.1% 30.3% 38% ± 8% NDP 9.6% 12.0% 5% ± 4% GPC 15.8% 4.7% 4% ± 3% PPC 2.0% 6.2% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.