logo
logo
Canada

Welcome to 338Canada!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


237 CPC 45 BQ 37 LPC 22 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats ON 99 13 9 1 QC 45 17 14 2 BC 36 5 1 1 AB 36 1 MB 11 2 1 SK 14 NS 9 1 1 NB 8 2 NL 5 2 PEI 4 YK NWT NU 338Canada federal projections Click on map to see projection details Updated on January 12, 2025

ON QC BC AB MB SK NS NB NL PEI YK NWT NU 338Canada provincial projections Click on a province to see projection details 90 20 11 2 1 70 31 9 8 7 47 44 2 59 28 36 20 1 34 27 43 9 2 1 31 16 2 18 17 3 2

Latest 338Canada updates


Click on any chart to access projection details

Canada (federal)

Updated January 12, 2025
CPC 45% ± 4% LPC 21% ± 3%▲ NDP 18% ± 3%▼ BQ 9% ± 1% GPC 4% ± 2% Projections | Polls | Districts

Ontario

Updated December 15, 2024
PCPO 42% ± 4%▲ OLP 26% ± 3% NDP 21% ± 3% GPO 7% ± 2% Projections | Polls | Districts

Quebec

Updated December 8, 2024
PQ 33% ± 4%▼ CAQ 22% ± 3%▲ LIB 17% ± 3% QS 13% ± 2% CPQ 12% ± 2% Projections | Polls | Districts

Nova Scotia

Updated November 27, 2024
PC 53% ± 0%▲ LIB 23% ± 0%▲ NDP 22% ± 0%▼ IND 1% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

Saskatchewan

Updated November 12, 2024
SKP 52% ± 0% NDP 40% ± 0%▲ SUP 4% ± 0% GRN 2% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

British Columbia

Updated November 10, 2024
NDP 45% ± 0%▲ CPBC 43% ± 0% BCG 8% ± 0% IND 4% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

New Brunswick

Updated October 22, 2024
LIB 48% ± 0%▲ PC 35% ± 0%▼ GRN 14% ± 0% NDP 1% ± 0% PANB 1% ± 0%▼ Projections | Polls | Districts

Alberta

Updated July 7, 2024
UCP 54% ± 5%▲ NDP 41% ± 5%▼ ABP 2% ± 1% GPA 1% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Manitoba

Updated June 19, 2024
NDP 48% ± 4%▲ PC 41% ± 4%▼ LIB 9% ± 2%▼ GRN 1% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

Newfoundland & Labrador

Updated May 27, 2024
LIB 40% ± 6% PC 40% ± 6%▲ NDP 16% ± 4% Projections | Polls | Districts

Election calendar

2025
March 9, 2025
LPC leadership race






2026






2027






2028