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Canada

Welcome to 338Canada!



338Canada is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data.

This website is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L’actualité, as well as a regular contributor to Politico Canada and The Walrus.

He also appears as a panelist on CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter to stay updated — and enjoy the website!



182 LPC 127 CPC 22 BQ 10 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats ON 74 46 1 1 QC 47 22 8 1 BC 22 17 3 1 AB 33 2 2 MB 7 5 2 SK 13 1 NS 11 NB 7 3 NL 5 2 PEI 4 YT NWT NU 338Canada federal projections Click on map to see projection details Updated on August 24, 2025

ON QC BC AB MB SK NS NB NL PEI YT NWT NU 338Canada provincial projections Click on a province to see projection details 83 25 13 2 1 75 38 7 5 48 43 2 61 26 40 16 1 34 27 43 9 2 1 31 16 2 18 17 3 2


Latest 338Canada updates


Click on any chart to access projection details

Canada (federal)

Updated August 24, 2025
LPC 44% ± 4%▼ CPC 39% ± 4%▲ NDP 8% ± 2% BQ 6% ± 1% GPC 1% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Quebec

Updated August 22, 2025
PQ 34% ± 4%▲ LIB 25% ± 3%▼ CAQ 17% ± 2% CPQ 13% ± 2%▼ QS 9% ± 1%▼ Projections | Polls | Districts

Ontario

Updated July 27, 2025
PCPO 44% ± 4%▲ OLP 30% ± 4% NDP 18% ± 2% GPO 5% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Manitoba

Updated June 18, 2025
NDP 53% ± 4%▲ PC 37% ± 4%▼ LIB 9% ± 2% GRN 1% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

British Columbia

Updated June 18, 2025
NDP 45% ± 5% CPBC 43% ± 5% BCG 8% ± 2% IND 4% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Alberta

Updated May 30, 2025
UCP 56% ± 5%▲ NDP 40% ± 5%▼ ABP 2% ± 1% GPA 1% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Nova Scotia

Updated November 27, 2024
PC 53% ± 0%▲ LIB 23% ± 0%▲ NDP 22% ± 0%▼ IND 1% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

Saskatchewan

Updated November 12, 2024
SKP 52% ± 0% NDP 40% ± 0%▲ SUP 4% ± 0% GRN 2% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

New Brunswick

Updated October 22, 2024
LIB 48% ± 0%▲ PC 35% ± 0%▼ GRN 14% ± 0% NDP 1% ± 0% PANB 1% ± 0%▼ Projections | Polls | Districts

Newfoundland & Labrador

Updated May 27, 2024
LIB 40% ± 6% PC 40% ± 6%▲ NDP 16% ± 4% Projections | Polls | Districts

Election calendar

2025
September 24, 2025
BC Green Party leadership




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October 5, 2026
Quebec general election




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