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Canada


Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke (federal)


MP: Cheryl Gallant (CPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

CPC safe hold
Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke 61% ± 7%▲ 21% ± 6% 9% ± 4%▼ 5% ± 4% 4% ± 4% CPC 2021 49.55% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke

LPC 9% ± 4% CPC 61% ± 7% NDP 21% ± 6% GPC 5% ± 4% PPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Odds of winning | Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 45.8% 52.7% 49.55% 61% ± 7% NDP 8.6% 14.9% 20.94% 21% ± 6% LPC 32.7% 19.6% 19.31% 9% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 2.5% 7.65% 4% ± 4% GPC 1.9% 5.5% 1.9% 5% ± 4% IND 0.0% 3.8% 0.65% 0% ± 0%