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Calgary Nose Hill



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Calgary Nose Hill


Liberal Tom Becker
Conservative Michelle Rempel Garner*
NDP Ahmed Khan
Green Addison Fach
PPC Giancarlo Staffa
Marxist-Leninist Peggy Askin
Rhinoceros Vanessa Wang

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Calgary Nose Hill 49% ± 8%▼ CPC 40% ± 8%▲ LPC 6% ± 3% NDP CPC 2021 55.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary Nose Hill 92%▼ CPC 8%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Calgary Nose Hill

LPC 40% ± 8% CPC 49% ± 8% NDP 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Calgary Nose Hill 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 55% LPC 23% NDP 14% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 51% LPC 29% NDP 12% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 10% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 48% LPC 35% NDP 10% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 9% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 50% LPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 50% LPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 51% LPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 51% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 51% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 51% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 52% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 52% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 50% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 50% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 50% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 50% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 50% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Calgary Nose Hill

LPC 8% CPC 92% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Calgary Nose Hill



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 68.5% 55.3% 49% ± 8% LPC 15.7% 20.2% 40% ± 8% NDP 9.9% 16.9% 6% ± 3% GPC 3.6% 1.6% 2% ± 2% PPC 2.0% 4.8% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.