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Canada

North Island—Powell River



Latest projection: April 21, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | North Island—Powell River


Liberal Jennifer Lash
Conservative Aaron Gunn
NDP Tanille Johnston
Green Jessica Wegg
PPC Paul Macknight
Independent Glen Staples

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


North Island—Powell River 51% ± 8%▲ CPC 26% ± 7%▼ NDP 16% ± 5%▼ LPC 3% ± 3% GPC NDP 2021 39.5% 338Canada vote projection | April 21, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% North Island—Powell River >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | April 21, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | North Island—Powell River

LPC 16% ± 5% CPC 51% ± 8% NDP 26% ± 7% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | North Island—Powell River 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 21, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 47% NDP 29% LPC 15% GPC 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 48% NDP 28% LPC 16% GPC 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 48% NDP 23% LPC 20% GPC 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 48% NDP 24% LPC 21% GPC 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 48% NDP 24% LPC 21% GPC 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 48% NDP 23% LPC 21% GPC 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 48% NDP 23% LPC 21% GPC 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 48% NDP 23% LPC 22% GPC 5% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 47% NDP 24% LPC 22% GPC 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 47% NDP 23% LPC 23% GPC 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 47% NDP 23% LPC 23% GPC 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 47% NDP 25% LPC 21% GPC 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 47% NDP 25% LPC 21% GPC 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 47% NDP 25% LPC 22% GPC 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 47% NDP 25% LPC 21% GPC 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 47% NDP 26% LPC 22% GPC 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 47% NDP 26% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 46% NDP 26% LPC 23% GPC 3% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 47% NDP 26% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 47% NDP 26% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 47% NDP 26% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 48% NDP 25% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 48% NDP 25% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 50% NDP 24% LPC 21% GPC 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 49% NDP 24% LPC 21% GPC 3% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 48% NDP 24% LPC 21% GPC 3% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 46% NDP 25% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 46% NDP 25% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 46% NDP 26% LPC 21% GPC 3% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 46% NDP 26% LPC 21% GPC 3% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 47% NDP 25% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 46% NDP 26% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 45% NDP 27% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 45% NDP 26% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 43% NDP 28% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 51% NDP 26% LPC 16% GPC 3% 2025-04-21 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | North Island—Powell River

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 21, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | North Island—Powell River



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 33.4% 36.2% 51% ± 8% NDP 37.5% 39.5% 26% ± 7% LPC 13.2% 13.3% 16% ± 5% GPC 13.8% 5.9% 3% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% PPC 1.6% 4.6% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.