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Recent electoral history | North Island—Powell River


2019 2021 2025 Projection NDP 38% ± 7% 37.5% 39.5% 32.6% CPC 35% ± 6% 33.4% 36.2% 38.7% LPC 22% ± 5% 13.2% 13.3% 26.2% GPC 3% ± 3% 13.8% 5.9% 1.9% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.6% 4.6% 0.4%

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338Canada North Island—Powell River projection

Latest update: January 18, 2026

North Island—Powell River 31% 46% 38% ± 7% NDP 29% 42% 35% ± 6% CPC 17% 27% 22% ± 5% LPC 1% 6% 3% ± 3% GPC CPC 2025 38.7% 338Canada vote projection | January 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% North Island—Powell River 69%▲ NDP 31%▼ CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | January 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | North Island—Powell River

LPC 22% ± 5% CPC 35% ± 6% NDP 38% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | North Island—Powell River 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND January 18, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 53% NDP 24% LPC 17% GPC 3% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 53% NDP 24% LPC 17% GPC 3% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 51% NDP 25% LPC 17% GPC 3% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 25% GPC 2% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 39% NDP 34% LPC 25% GPC 2% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 25% GPC 2% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 38% NDP 34% LPC 25% GPC 2% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 38% NDP 34% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 37% NDP 33% LPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 37% NDP 33% LPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 37% NDP 34% LPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 36% NDP 35% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 36% NDP 35% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 36% NDP 35% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 37% NDP 34% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 37% NDP 34% LPC 25% GPC 2% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 38% NDP 34% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 37% NDP 33% LPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 38% NDP 34% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 38% NDP 34% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 37% NDP 34% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 37% NDP 34% LPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 37% NDP 33% LPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 37% NDP 34% LPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 38% NDP 33% LPC 27% GPC 2% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 38% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 39% NDP 33% LPC 26% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 39% NDP 35% LPC 24% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 38% NDP 35% LPC 24% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 38% NDP 36% LPC 24% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 NDP 38% CPC 36% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 NDP 38% CPC 36% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 NDP 38% CPC 35% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 NDP 38% CPC 35% LPC 22% GPC 3% 2026-01-18

Odds of winning | North Island—Powell River

LPC <1% CPC 31% NDP 69% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 18, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 95% NDP 5% LPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 93% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 85% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 83% NDP 17% LPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 82% NDP 18% LPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 76% NDP 24% LPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 CPC 75% NDP 24% LPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 CPC 76% NDP 24% LPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 CPC 75% NDP 24% LPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 CPC 67% NDP 32% LPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 CPC 56% NDP 43% LPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 CPC 57% NDP 42% LPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 CPC 60% NDP 40% LPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 CPC 64% NDP 35% LPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 70% NDP 30% LPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 76% NDP 24% LPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 77% NDP 23% LPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 78% NDP 22% LPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 74% NDP 26% LPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 74% NDP 25% LPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 75% NDP 25% LPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 75% NDP 25% LPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 74% NDP 25% LPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 79% NDP 21% LPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 85% NDP 15% LPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 89% NDP 11% LPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 88% NDP 12% LPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 75% NDP 25% LPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 71% NDP 29% LPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 64% NDP 36% LPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 NDP 63% CPC 37% LPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 NDP 64% CPC 36% LPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 NDP 67% CPC 33% LPC <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 NDP 69% CPC 31% LPC <1% 2026-01-18


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Demographic data | North Island—Powell River

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 97.5% English 0.6% French 0.2% Punjabi 0.2% Tagalog 0.1% Vietnamese 0.1% Korean 0.1% MandarinNorth Island—Powell RiverSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 10.2% No diploma 30.3% High school 12.1% Trade 23.4% College / Cégep 3.5% Some university 13.1% Bachelor's 7.4% PostgraduateNorth Island—Powell RiverSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 94.9% Not visible minority 5.1% Visible minority 1.0% Filipino 0.9% South Asian 0.8% Chinese 0.5% Southeast Asian 0.5% Black 0.4% JapaneseNorth Island—Powell RiverSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 63.9% No Religion 9.7% Catholic 7.3% Christian (n.o.s.) 4.5% Anglican 3.8% United Church 2.0% Other Christian 1.4% Baptist 1.3% Other ReligionsNorth Island—Powell RiverSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 76.8% Owner 22.2% Renter 1.0% Community housingNorth Island—Powell RiverSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 49.4% Employed 45.9% Not in labour force 4.7% UnemployedNorth Island—Powell RiverSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 88.4% Non-Indigenous 11.6% Indigenous identity 8.1% First Nations 3.0% Metis 0.2% Others 0.2% Multiple 0.1% InukNorth Island—Powell RiverSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 86.6% Car / truck / van 5.9% Walking 3.4% Other 2.2% Public transit 1.9% BicycleNorth Island—Powell RiverSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.