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Canada

Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
Toss up LPC/BQ
Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est 33% ± 7%▲ BQ 31% ± 7%▲ LPC 21% ± 6% NDP 9% ± 4% CPC 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 38.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est 65% BQ 35% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est

LPC 31% ± 7% CPC 9% ± 4% NDP 21% ± 6% GPC 4% ± 3% BQ 33% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 33% LPC 33% NDP 20% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 35% LPC 32% NDP 20% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 34% LPC 33% NDP 20% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 34% BQ 32% NDP 21% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 34% BQ 31% NDP 21% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 35% BQ 31% NDP 21% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 32% LPC 31% NDP 22% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 32% LPC 30% NDP 22% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 33% LPC 30% NDP 22% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 32% LPC 30% NDP 21% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 33% LPC 31% NDP 21% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est

LPC 35% NDP <1% BQ 65% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 62% BQ 38% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 69% BQ 31% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 77% BQ 23% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 59% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 69% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 34.2% 38.4% 31% ± 7% BQ 33.2% 31.4% 33% ± 7% NDP 21.5% 20.3% 21% ± 6% CPC 4.5% 4.7% 9% ± 4% PPC 0.7% 2.3% 1% ± 2% GPC 4.9% 2.0% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.