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Canada


Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine (federal)


MP: Diane Lebouthillier (LPC)


Latest projection: October 1, 2023

Toss up LPC/BQ
Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 43% ± 8%▲ 41% ± 8%▼ 10% ± 4%▲ 5% ± 3%▲ LPC 2021 46.42% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 1, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 64%▲ 36%▼ <1% Odds of winning | October 1, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine

LPC 43% ± 8% CPC 10% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 3% BQ 41% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Odds of winning | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine

LPC 64% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ 36% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 38.7% 42.5% 46.42% 43% ± 8% BQ 20.9% 40.8% 39.31% 41% ± 8% CPC 6.1% 7.9% 8.13% 10% ± 4% NDP 32.5% 4.5% 3.69% 5% ± 3% PPC 0.0% 0.5% 1.69% 1% ± 2% GPC 1.0% 2.9% 0.0% 1% ± 1%