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Canada

Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est


MP elect: Marie-Gabrielle Menard (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est


Liberal Marie-Gabrielle Menard
Conservative Carl Belley
NDP Julie Girard-Lemay
Green Jacob Pirro
Bloc Quebecois Rose Lessard
Marxist-Leninist Christine Dandenault

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est 46% ± 7% LPC 27% ± 5% BQ 13% ± 4% NDP 11% ± 4% CPC 3% ± 2% GPC LPC 2025 46.1% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est >99% LPC <1% BQ <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est

LPC 46% ± 7% CPC 11% ± 4% NDP 13% ± 4% BQ 27% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 36% NDP 25% LPC 24% CPC 10% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 35% NDP 25% LPC 24% CPC 10% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 35% NDP 25% LPC 24% CPC 10% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 34% LPC 25% NDP 25% CPC 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 32% LPC 29% NDP 24% CPC 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 32% LPC 32% NDP 21% CPC 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 34% BQ 31% NDP 19% CPC 9% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 37% BQ 29% NDP 18% CPC 9% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 38% BQ 29% NDP 18% CPC 9% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 41% BQ 28% NDP 17% CPC 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 43% BQ 27% NDP 16% CPC 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 43% BQ 27% NDP 16% CPC 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 43% BQ 27% NDP 16% CPC 8% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 43% BQ 27% NDP 15% CPC 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 43% BQ 27% NDP 15% CPC 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 43% BQ 27% NDP 15% CPC 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 47% BQ 26% NDP 13% CPC 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 47% BQ 26% NDP 13% CPC 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 48% BQ 25% NDP 13% CPC 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 49% BQ 25% NDP 12% CPC 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 50% BQ 25% NDP 12% CPC 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 50% BQ 24% NDP 12% CPC 8% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 50% BQ 24% NDP 12% CPC 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 53% BQ 22% NDP 12% CPC 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 53% BQ 22% NDP 12% CPC 9% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 55% BQ 21% NDP 11% CPC 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 55% BQ 21% NDP 11% CPC 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 55% BQ 21% NDP 11% CPC 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 55% BQ 21% NDP 11% CPC 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 56% BQ 20% NDP 11% CPC 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 56% BQ 21% NDP 11% CPC 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 55% BQ 21% NDP 11% CPC 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 56% BQ 21% NDP 12% CPC 8% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 55% BQ 20% NDP 12% CPC 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 55% BQ 20% NDP 12% CPC 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 51% BQ 22% NDP 14% CPC 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 51% BQ 22% NDP 14% CPC 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 51% BQ 22% NDP 14% CPC 8% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 50% BQ 23% NDP 14% CPC 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 49% BQ 23% NDP 15% CPC 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 49% BQ 23% NDP 14% CPC 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 49% BQ 23% NDP 14% CPC 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 49% BQ 23% NDP 14% CPC 9% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 49% BQ 24% NDP 14% CPC 9% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 49% BQ 24% NDP 14% CPC 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 48% BQ 24% NDP 14% CPC 9% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 48% BQ 24% NDP 14% CPC 9% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 47% BQ 24% NDP 15% CPC 9% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 47% BQ 24% NDP 15% CPC 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 45% BQ 24% NDP 17% CPC 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 44% BQ 26% NDP 16% CPC 9% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 46% BQ 27% NDP 13% CPC 11% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 46% BQ 27% NDP 13% CPC 11% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 46% BQ 27% NDP 13% CPC 11% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 46% BQ 27% NDP 13% CPC 11% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 98% NDP 2% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 97% NDP 2% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 95% NDP 3% LPC 2% CPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 94% LPC 3% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 68% LPC 30% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 70% BQ 30% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 46% ± 7% 34.2% 38.4% 46.1% BQ 27% ± 5% 33.2% 31.4% 27.2% NDP 13% ± 4% 21.5% 20.3% 13.0% CPC 11% ± 4% 4.5% 4.7% 10.6% GPC 3% ± 2% 4.9% 2.0% 2.6% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.7% 2.3% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.