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Canada

Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
BQ likely
Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est 35% ± 7%▼ BQ 25% ± 6% LPC 25% ± 6%▲ NDP 8% ± 4%▼ CPC 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 38.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est 97%▼ BQ 2%▲ LPC 2%▲ NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est

LPC 25% ± 6% CPC 8% ± 4% NDP 25% ± 6% GPC 4% ± 3% BQ 35% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 33% LPC 33% NDP 20% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 35% LPC 32% NDP 20% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 34% LPC 33% NDP 20% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 34% BQ 32% NDP 21% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 34% BQ 31% NDP 21% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 35% BQ 31% NDP 21% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 32% LPC 31% NDP 22% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 32% LPC 30% NDP 22% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 33% LPC 30% NDP 22% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 32% LPC 30% NDP 21% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 33% LPC 31% NDP 21% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 33% LPC 31% NDP 21% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 32% BQ 32% NDP 21% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 32% BQ 32% NDP 21% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 31% BQ 31% NDP 22% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 32% BQ 31% NDP 21% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 33% BQ 29% NDP 22% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 32% BQ 30% NDP 22% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 32% LPC 31% NDP 21% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 34% LPC 29% NDP 22% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 34% LPC 27% NDP 22% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 34% LPC 27% NDP 23% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 34% LPC 28% NDP 23% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 35% LPC 28% NDP 22% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 35% LPC 28% NDP 22% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 35% LPC 28% NDP 22% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 36% LPC 28% NDP 21% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 36% LPC 28% NDP 21% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 36% LPC 26% NDP 22% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 36% LPC 26% NDP 22% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 36% LPC 25% NDP 23% CPC 9% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 35% LPC 25% NDP 25% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est

LPC 2% NDP 2% BQ 97% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 62% BQ 38% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 69% BQ 31% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 77% BQ 23% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 59% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 69% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 51% BQ 49% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 53% BQ 47% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 50% BQ 50% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 62% BQ 38% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 77% BQ 23% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 66% BQ 33% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 91% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 92% LPC 7% NDP 1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 90% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 94% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 98% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 97% LPC 2% NDP 2% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 34.2% 38.4% 25% ± 6% BQ 33.2% 31.4% 35% ± 7% NDP 21.5% 20.3% 25% ± 6% CPC 4.5% 4.7% 8% ± 4% PPC 0.7% 2.3% 1% ± 2% GPC 4.9% 2.0% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.