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Canada


Brome–Missisquoi (federal)


MP: Pascale St-Onge (LPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

BQ leaning gain
Brome–Missisquoi 36% ± 7%▲ 30% ± 7%▼ 19% ± 5% 8% ± 4% 5% ± 4% LPC 2021 34.94% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Brome–Missisquoi 86%▲ 14%▼ <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Brome–Missisquoi

LPC 30% ± 7% CPC 19% ± 5% NDP 8% ± 4% GPC 5% ± 4% BQ 36% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Brome–Missisquoi 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Odds of winning | Brome–Missisquoi

LPC 14% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ 86% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Brome–Missisquoi



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 43.9% 38.2% 34.94% 30% ± 7% BQ 17.5% 34.4% 34.64% 36% ± 7% CPC 11.5% 12.5% 16.21% 19% ± 5% NDP 24.5% 8.0% 6.23% 8% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 0.7% 3.23% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.3% 5.4% 2.39% 5% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.24% 0% ± 0%