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Canada

Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles


MP: Pierre Paul-Hus (CPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
CPC likely

Recent electoral history | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 42% ± 7% 38.4% 45.0% 42.4% LPC 35% ± 7% 21.3% 19.7% 34.6% BQ 19% ± 5% 27.0% 24.6% 18.9% NDP 3% ± 2% 7.5% 5.9% 2.7% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.3% 2.2% 0.8% GPC 0% ± 0% 3.4% 1.7% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles 42% ± 7% CPC 35% ± 7% LPC 19% ± 5% BQ 3% ± 2% NDP CPC 2025 42.4% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles 91%▼ CPC 9%▲ LPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles

LPC 35% ± 7% CPC 42% ± 7% BQ 19% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 54% BQ 26% LPC 9% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 55% BQ 25% LPC 9% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 55% BQ 25% LPC 9% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 54% BQ 26% LPC 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 53% BQ 24% LPC 12% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 53% BQ 24% LPC 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 53% BQ 23% LPC 14% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 51% BQ 22% LPC 16% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 52% BQ 21% LPC 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 51% BQ 21% LPC 17% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 51% BQ 20% LPC 19% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 51% BQ 20% LPC 19% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 51% BQ 20% LPC 19% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 50% BQ 20% LPC 19% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 50% BQ 20% LPC 19% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 50% BQ 21% LPC 19% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 49% LPC 21% BQ 20% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 48% LPC 21% BQ 20% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 49% LPC 22% BQ 20% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 50% LPC 22% BQ 19% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 50% LPC 22% BQ 19% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 50% LPC 22% BQ 18% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 51% LPC 22% BQ 18% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 52% LPC 23% BQ 17% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 52% LPC 23% BQ 16% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 52% LPC 24% BQ 16% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 52% LPC 24% BQ 16% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 52% LPC 24% BQ 16% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 53% LPC 24% BQ 15% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 54% LPC 24% BQ 15% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 54% LPC 24% BQ 15% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 54% LPC 23% BQ 15% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 55% LPC 24% BQ 15% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 56% LPC 23% BQ 15% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 56% LPC 23% BQ 14% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 56% LPC 23% BQ 14% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 57% LPC 22% BQ 14% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 55% LPC 24% BQ 14% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 53% LPC 26% BQ 14% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 51% LPC 27% BQ 15% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 51% LPC 27% BQ 15% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 51% LPC 27% BQ 15% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 52% LPC 26% BQ 15% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 52% LPC 26% BQ 15% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 51% LPC 26% BQ 16% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 52% LPC 25% BQ 16% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 53% LPC 25% BQ 16% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 53% LPC 24% BQ 16% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 53% LPC 24% BQ 15% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 54% LPC 24% BQ 15% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 53% LPC 25% BQ 15% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 42% LPC 35% BQ 19% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 42% LPC 35% BQ 19% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 42% LPC 35% BQ 19% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 42% LPC 35% BQ 19% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 42% LPC 35% BQ 19% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles

LPC 9% CPC 91% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader