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Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner


Liberal Thomas Rooke
Conservative Glen Motz*
NDP Jocelyn Johnson
Green Andy Shadrack
PPC Jordan Harris

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner 73% ± 7% CPC 17% ± 6% LPC 6% ± 4% NDP CPC 2021 65.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner

LPC 17% ± 6% CPC 73% ± 7% NDP 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 66% NDP 12% LPC 9% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 64% LPC 12% NDP 11% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 65% LPC 17% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 65% LPC 17% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 64% LPC 17% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 65% LPC 17% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 65% LPC 17% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 65% LPC 17% NDP 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 65% LPC 18% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 65% LPC 18% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 65% LPC 18% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 66% LPC 17% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 67% LPC 17% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 67% LPC 17% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 68% LPC 17% NDP 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 68% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 69% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 69% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 69% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 69% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 69% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 72% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 72% LPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 73% LPC 16% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 74% LPC 16% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 74% LPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 73% LPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 73% LPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 74% LPC 17% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 73% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 73% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 73% LPC 17% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 80.0% 65.8% 73% ± 7% LPC 6.2% 7.1% 17% ± 6% NDP 8.4% 13.9% 6% ± 4% PPC 2.6% 9.3% 2% ± 3% GPC 2.3% 1.4% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.