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Canada


Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner


Latest projection: June 9, 2024
CPC safe
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner 69% ± 8%▼ CPC 12% ± 5% NDP 5% ± 3% LPC 5% ± 6% PPC CPC 2021 65.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | June 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner

LPC 5% ± 3% CPC 69% ± 8% NDP 12% ± 5% PPC 5% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP PPC June 9, 2024

Odds of winning | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP June 9, 2024

Recent electoral history | Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 80.0% 65.8% 69% ± 8% NDP 8.4% 13.9% 12% ± 5% PPC 2.6% 9.3% 5% ± 6% LPC 6.2% 7.1% 5% ± 3% GPC 2.3% 1.4% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.