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Canada

Laurier—Sainte-Marie



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
Toss up LPC/NDP
Laurier—Sainte-Marie 31% ± 7% NDP 30% ± 7% LPC 25% ± 6% BQ 7% ± 4% CPC 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 39.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Laurier—Sainte-Marie 56%▲ NDP 40%▼ LPC 4% BQ Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Laurier—Sainte-Marie

LPC 30% ± 7% CPC 7% ± 4% NDP 31% ± 7% GPC 4% ± 3% BQ 25% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Laurier—Sainte-Marie 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 37% NDP 29% BQ 21% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 36% NDP 29% BQ 22% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 37% NDP 29% BQ 21% CPC 6% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 38% NDP 29% BQ 20% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 38% NDP 29% BQ 19% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 38% NDP 29% BQ 19% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 35% NDP 31% BQ 20% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 34% NDP 31% BQ 20% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 34% NDP 30% BQ 20% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 34% NDP 30% BQ 20% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 34% NDP 30% BQ 20% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 34% NDP 30% BQ 20% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 36% NDP 30% BQ 20% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 36% NDP 30% BQ 20% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 35% NDP 30% BQ 19% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 36% NDP 30% BQ 19% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 37% NDP 30% BQ 18% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 36% NDP 30% BQ 18% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 35% NDP 30% BQ 19% CPC 8% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 NDP 32% LPC 31% BQ 23% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 NDP 32% LPC 29% BQ 23% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 NDP 33% LPC 29% BQ 23% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 NDP 33% LPC 29% BQ 23% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 32% LPC 30% BQ 24% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 32% LPC 30% BQ 24% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 32% LPC 30% BQ 24% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP 31% LPC 30% BQ 25% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 31% LPC 30% BQ 25% CPC 7% GPC 4% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Laurier—Sainte-Marie

LPC 40% NDP 56% BQ 4% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 93% NDP 7% BQ <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 91% NDP 9% BQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 93% NDP 7% BQ <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 94% NDP 6% BQ <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 94% NDP 6% BQ <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 95% NDP 5% BQ <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 75% NDP 25% BQ <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 69% NDP 31% BQ <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 74% NDP 26% BQ <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 77% NDP 23% BQ <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 79% NDP 21% BQ <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 79% NDP 21% BQ <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 85% NDP 15% BQ <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 86% NDP 14% BQ <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 80% NDP 20% BQ <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 87% NDP 13% BQ <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 89% NDP 11% BQ <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 83% NDP 17% BQ <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 82% NDP 18% BQ <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 NDP 56% LPC 43% BQ 1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 NDP 72% LPC 27% BQ 1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 NDP 81% LPC 18% BQ 1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 NDP 75% LPC 25% BQ 1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 64% LPC 35% BQ 1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 60% LPC 39% BQ 2% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 60% LPC 38% BQ 2% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP 52% LPC 44% BQ 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 56% LPC 40% BQ 4% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Laurier—Sainte-Marie



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 42.7% 39.5% 30% ± 7% NDP 23.9% 30.4% 31% ± 7% BQ 22.6% 20.1% 25% ± 6% CPC 3.4% 4.5% 7% ± 4% GPC 5.9% 2.2% 4% ± 3% PPC 0.6% 1.8% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.