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Canada

Laurier—Sainte-Marie


MP elect: Steven Guilbeault (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Laurier—Sainte-Marie


Liberal Steven Guilbeault*
Conservative Mathieu Fournier
NDP Nima Machouf
Green Dylan Perceval-Maxwell
Bloc Quebecois Emmanuel Lapierre
PPC Eugene Duplessis
Marxist-Leninist Michel Labelle
Rhinoceros Chantal Poulin
Communist Adrien Welsh
Independent Simon-Pierre Lauzon
Independent Dimitri Mourkes

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Laurier—Sainte-Marie 52% ± 7% LPC 19% ± 5% NDP 15% ± 4%▼ BQ 9% ± 4% CPC 3% ± 2% GPC LPC 2025 52.1% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Laurier—Sainte-Marie >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% BQ Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Laurier—Sainte-Marie

LPC 52% ± 7% CPC 9% ± 4% NDP 19% ± 5% BQ 15% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Laurier—Sainte-Marie 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 33% LPC 27% BQ 26% CPC 8% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 33% LPC 28% BQ 25% CPC 8% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 33% LPC 28% BQ 25% CPC 8% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP 32% LPC 29% BQ 25% CPC 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 33% NDP 31% BQ 23% CPC 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 36% NDP 28% BQ 22% CPC 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 39% NDP 25% BQ 22% CPC 7% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 42% NDP 24% BQ 20% CPC 6% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 43% NDP 24% BQ 20% CPC 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 46% NDP 22% BQ 19% CPC 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 48% NDP 21% BQ 19% CPC 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 49% NDP 20% BQ 19% CPC 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 49% NDP 20% BQ 18% CPC 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 49% NDP 20% BQ 19% CPC 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 49% NDP 20% BQ 19% CPC 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 49% NDP 20% BQ 19% CPC 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 53% BQ 18% NDP 17% CPC 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 53% BQ 18% NDP 17% CPC 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 53% BQ 18% NDP 17% CPC 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 54% BQ 17% NDP 16% CPC 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 55% BQ 17% NDP 16% CPC 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 56% BQ 17% NDP 15% CPC 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 56% BQ 17% NDP 15% CPC 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 58% BQ 15% NDP 15% CPC 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 59% NDP 15% BQ 15% CPC 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 60% NDP 15% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 60% NDP 15% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 60% NDP 15% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 60% NDP 15% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 60% NDP 15% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 60% NDP 15% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 60% NDP 15% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 60% NDP 15% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 59% NDP 15% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 59% NDP 16% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 59% NDP 16% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 58% NDP 16% BQ 13% CPC 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 59% NDP 16% BQ 13% CPC 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 55% NDP 19% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 55% NDP 19% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 55% NDP 19% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 55% NDP 19% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 55% NDP 19% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 54% NDP 19% BQ 14% CPC 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 53% NDP 19% BQ 15% CPC 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 53% NDP 19% BQ 15% CPC 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 52% NDP 20% BQ 15% CPC 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 52% NDP 20% BQ 15% CPC 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 52% NDP 20% BQ 15% CPC 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 50% NDP 21% BQ 16% CPC 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 49% NDP 22% BQ 16% CPC 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 52% NDP 19% BQ 16% CPC 9% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 52% NDP 19% BQ 16% CPC 9% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 52% NDP 19% BQ 16% CPC 9% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 52% NDP 19% BQ 15% CPC 9% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Laurier—Sainte-Marie

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 79% LPC 14% CPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 79% LPC 16% CPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 79% LPC 18% CPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP 72% LPC 25% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 65% NDP 34% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 93% NDP 6% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 99% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Laurier—Sainte-Marie



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 52% ± 7% 42.7% 39.5% 52.1% NDP 19% ± 5% 23.9% 30.4% 18.8% BQ 15% ± 4% 22.6% 20.1% 15.4% CPC 9% ± 4% 3.4% 4.5% 9.2% GPC 3% ± 2% 5.9% 2.2% 2.8% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 0% ± 1% 0.6% 1.8% 0.5%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.