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Canada


Laurier—Sainte-Marie


Latest projection: May 12, 2024
LPC likely
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
Laurier—Sainte-Marie 37% ± 7% LPC 29% ± 7% NDP 21% ± 6% BQ 7% ± 3% CPC 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 39.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Laurier—Sainte-Marie 93%▼ LPC 7%▲ NDP <1% BQ Odds of winning | May 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Laurier—Sainte-Marie

LPC 37% ± 7% CPC 7% ± 3% NDP 29% ± 7% GPC 4% ± 3% BQ 21% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Laurier—Sainte-Marie 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ May 12, 2024

Odds of winning | Laurier—Sainte-Marie

LPC 93% NDP 7% BQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC NDP BQ May 12, 2024

Recent electoral history | Laurier—Sainte-Marie



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 42.7% 39.5% 37% ± 7% NDP 23.9% 30.4% 29% ± 7% BQ 22.6% 20.1% 21% ± 6% CPC 3.4% 4.5% 7% ± 3% GPC 5.9% 2.2% 4% ± 3% PPC 0.6% 1.8% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.