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Canada

North Vancouver—Capilano


Latest projection: September 15, 2024
CPC leaning
North Vancouver—Capilano 43% ± 7%▲ CPC 36% ± 7%▲ LPC 14% ± 5%▼ NDP 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 44.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% North Vancouver—Capilano 88%▲ CPC 12%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | September 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | North Vancouver—Capilano

LPC 36% ± 7% CPC 43% ± 7% NDP 14% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | North Vancouver—Capilano 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC September 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 48% LPC 30% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 48% LPC 31% NDP 15% GPC 6% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 46% LPC 32% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 45% LPC 32% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 45% LPC 33% NDP 16% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 44% LPC 34% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 43% LPC 33% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 42% LPC 33% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 42% LPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 42% LPC 34% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 42% LPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 42% LPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 41% LPC 35% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 42% LPC 34% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 42% LPC 34% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 42% LPC 34% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 42% LPC 35% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 42% LPC 35% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 43% LPC 36% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-09-15

Odds of winning | North Vancouver—Capilano

LPC 12% CPC 88% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP September 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-09-15

Recent electoral history | North Vancouver—Capilano



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 42.8% 44.7% 36% ± 7% CPC 28.3% 29.4% 43% ± 7% NDP 15.3% 19.1% 14% ± 5% GPC 12.2% 4.3% 5% ± 4% PPC 1.4% 2.6% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.