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Canada

North Vancouver—Capilano


MP elect: Jonathan Wilkinson (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | North Vancouver—Capilano


Liberal Jonathan Wilkinson*
Conservative Stephen Curran
NDP Tammy Bentz
Green Andrew Robinson
PPC Ehsan Arjmand
Independent Oliver King

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


North Vancouver—Capilano 60% ± 6% LPC 34% ± 6% CPC 4% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 59.8% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% North Vancouver—Capilano >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | North Vancouver—Capilano

LPC 60% ± 6% CPC 34% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | North Vancouver—Capilano 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 46% LPC 31% NDP 16% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 47% LPC 32% NDP 16% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 46% LPC 32% NDP 15% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 45% LPC 34% NDP 15% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 43% LPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 41% CPC 40% NDP 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 43% CPC 39% NDP 12% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 47% CPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 47% CPC 35% NDP 12% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 54% CPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 58% CPC 33% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 58% CPC 33% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 58% CPC 33% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 58% CPC 33% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 63% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 63% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 58% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 58% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 59% CPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 59% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 58% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 58% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 58% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 58% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 58% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 57% CPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 58% CPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 58% CPC 30% NDP 7% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 58% CPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 58% CPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 58% CPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 58% CPC 31% NDP 7% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 59% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 59% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 59% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 59% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 60% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 60% CPC 34% NDP 4% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | North Vancouver—Capilano

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | North Vancouver—Capilano



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 60% ± 6% 42.8% 44.7% 59.8% CPC 34% ± 6% 28.3% 29.4% 33.7% NDP 4% ± 2% 15.3% 19.1% 4.2% GPC 2% ± 1% 12.2% 4.3% 1.7% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.4% 2.6% 0.4% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.