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Canada


Vancouver South (federal)


MP: Harjit Sajjan (LPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

LPC likely hold
Vancouver South 45% ± 7%▲ 32% ± 7% 22% ± 6%▲ LPC 2021 49.43% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Vancouver South 99%▲ 1%▼ <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vancouver South

LPC 45% ± 7% CPC 32% ± 7% NDP 22% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver South 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP

Odds of winning | Vancouver South

LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Vancouver South



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 48.8% 41.2% 49.43% 45% ± 7% NDP 14.0% 18.6% 24.66% 22% ± 6% CPC 33.9% 33.3% 22.44% 32% ± 7% PPC 0.0% 1.2% 2.74% 1% ± 2% GPC 2.6% 5.7% 0.0% 1% ± 1%