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Canada

Vancouver Quadra



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC likely
Vancouver Quadra 44% ± 8% CPC 30% ± 7% LPC 17% ± 5% NDP 7% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 43.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vancouver Quadra 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vancouver Quadra

LPC 30% ± 7% CPC 44% ± 8% NDP 17% ± 5% GPC 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver Quadra 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 47% LPC 29% NDP 15% GPC 7% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 47% LPC 29% NDP 15% GPC 8% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 45% LPC 31% NDP 16% GPC 7% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 45% LPC 31% NDP 16% GPC 7% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 44% LPC 32% NDP 16% GPC 7% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 44% LPC 32% NDP 16% GPC 7% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 43% LPC 32% NDP 17% GPC 7% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 42% LPC 32% NDP 17% GPC 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 41% LPC 32% NDP 17% GPC 7% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 41% LPC 33% NDP 17% GPC 7% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 41% LPC 33% NDP 17% GPC 7% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 41% LPC 33% NDP 17% GPC 7% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 41% LPC 33% NDP 17% GPC 7% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 41% LPC 33% NDP 17% GPC 7% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 41% LPC 32% NDP 17% GPC 7% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 41% LPC 33% NDP 17% GPC 7% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 42% LPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 7% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 41% LPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 7% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 42% LPC 35% NDP 15% GPC 7% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 41% LPC 35% NDP 15% GPC 7% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 42% LPC 34% NDP 15% GPC 7% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 43% LPC 32% NDP 16% GPC 7% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 43% LPC 32% NDP 17% GPC 7% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 42% LPC 33% NDP 17% GPC 7% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 41% LPC 33% NDP 17% GPC 7% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 42% LPC 33% NDP 17% GPC 7% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 42% LPC 33% NDP 16% GPC 7% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 42% LPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 7% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 43% LPC 33% NDP 16% GPC 7% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 43% LPC 32% NDP 16% GPC 7% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 44% LPC 30% NDP 17% GPC 7% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 44% LPC 30% NDP 17% GPC 7% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Vancouver Quadra

LPC 1% CPC 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Vancouver Quadra



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 42.8% 43.4% 30% ± 7% CPC 28.2% 29.2% 44% ± 8% NDP 14.9% 19.4% 17% ± 5% GPC 12.1% 6.0% 7% ± 4% PPC 0.8% 2.0% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.