logo
logo
Canada

Toronto—St. Paul’s


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Toronto—St. Paul’s 41% ± 7% CPC 38% ± 7%▼ LPC 11% ± 4% NDP 6% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 49.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Toronto—St. Paul’s 69%▲ CPC 31%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Toronto—St. Paul’s

LPC 38% ± 7% CPC 41% ± 7% NDP 11% ± 4% GPC 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Toronto—St. Paul’s 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 38% CPC 35% NDP 16% GPC 10% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 38% CPC 35% NDP 16% GPC 10% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 10% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 10% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 39% CPC 35% NDP 13% GPC 10% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 40% CPC 35% NDP 14% GPC 10% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 39% CPC 35% NDP 14% GPC 10% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 11% GPC 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 11% GPC 6% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 11% GPC 6% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 41% LPC 38% NDP 11% GPC 6% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Toronto—St. Paul’s

LPC 31% CPC 69% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Toronto—St. Paul’s



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 55.1% 49.5% 38% ± 7% CPC 22.2% 26.5% 41% ± 7% NDP 14.3% 15.9% 11% ± 4% GPC 6.8% 5.6% 6% ± 4% PPC 1.5% 2.5% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.