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Canada

Toronto—St. Paul’s



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Toronto—St. Paul’s


Liberal Leslie Church
Conservative Don Stewart*
NDP Bruce Levy
Green Shane Philips
PPC Joseph Frasca
Marxist-Leninist David Gershuny
Canadian Future Cynthia Valdron

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Toronto—St. Paul’s 59% ± 8% LPC 31% ± 7%▲ CPC 4% ± 3% NDP 3% ± 2% GPC LPC 2021 49.5% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Toronto—St. Paul’s >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Toronto—St. Paul’s

LPC 59% ± 8% CPC 31% ± 7% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Toronto—St. Paul’s 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 48% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 50% CPC 34% NDP 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 52% CPC 33% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 53% CPC 33% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 53% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 53% CPC 33% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 53% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 53% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 55% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 55% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 55% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 56% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 56% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 56% CPC 33% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 58% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 59% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 60% CPC 32% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 60% CPC 32% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 60% CPC 32% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 59% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 59% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 59% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 59% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 59% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 59% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 59% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 59% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Toronto—St. Paul’s

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Toronto—St. Paul’s



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 55.1% 49.5% 59% ± 8% CPC 22.2% 26.5% 31% ± 7% NDP 14.3% 15.9% 4% ± 3% GPC 6.8% 5.6% 3% ± 2% PPC 1.5% 2.5% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.