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Canada

Toronto—St. Paul’s



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Toronto—St. Paul’s 39% ± 7%▼ CPC 38% ± 7% LPC 12% ± 4% NDP 7% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 49.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Toronto—St. Paul’s 57%▼ CPC 43%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Toronto—St. Paul’s

LPC 38% ± 7% CPC 39% ± 7% NDP 12% ± 4% GPC 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Toronto—St. Paul’s 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 38% CPC 35% NDP 16% GPC 10% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 38% CPC 35% NDP 16% GPC 10% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 10% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 10% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 39% CPC 35% NDP 13% GPC 10% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 40% CPC 35% NDP 14% GPC 10% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 39% CPC 35% NDP 14% GPC 10% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 11% GPC 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 11% GPC 6% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 41% LPC 39% NDP 11% GPC 6% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 41% LPC 38% NDP 11% GPC 6% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 41% LPC 38% NDP 11% GPC 6% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 41% LPC 38% NDP 11% GPC 7% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 41% LPC 38% NDP 11% GPC 7% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 40% LPC 39% NDP 11% GPC 7% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 40% CPC 39% NDP 11% GPC 7% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 40% LPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 7% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 40% LPC 39% NDP 10% GPC 7% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 42% LPC 38% NDP 10% GPC 7% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 9% GPC 7% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 42% LPC 37% NDP 10% GPC 7% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 42% LPC 36% NDP 12% GPC 7% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 12% GPC 7% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 12% GPC 7% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 41% LPC 37% NDP 12% GPC 7% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 40% LPC 37% NDP 12% GPC 7% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 40% LPC 38% NDP 12% GPC 7% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 39% LPC 38% NDP 12% GPC 7% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Toronto—St. Paul’s

LPC 43% CPC 57% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Toronto—St. Paul’s



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 55.1% 49.5% 38% ± 7% CPC 22.2% 26.5% 39% ± 7% NDP 14.3% 15.9% 12% ± 4% GPC 6.8% 5.6% 7% ± 4% PPC 1.5% 2.5% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.