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Canada

Toronto—St. Paul’s


MP elect: Leslie Church (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Toronto—St. Paul’s


Liberal Leslie Church
Conservative Don Stewart*
NDP Bruce Levy
Green Shane Philips
PPC Joseph Frasca
Marxist-Leninist David Gershuny
Canadian Future Cynthia Valdron

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Toronto—St. Paul’s 62% ± 6% LPC 33% ± 6% CPC 3% ± 2%▼ NDP LPC 2025 61.9% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Toronto—St. Paul’s >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Toronto—St. Paul’s

LPC 62% ± 6% CPC 33% ± 6% NDP 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Toronto—St. Paul’s 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 44% LPC 33% NDP 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 43% LPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 42% LPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 40% LPC 38% NDP 12% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 11% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 45% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 47% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 48% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 48% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 50% CPC 34% NDP 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 52% CPC 33% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 53% CPC 33% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 53% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 53% CPC 33% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 53% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 53% CPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 55% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 55% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 55% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 56% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 56% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 56% CPC 33% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 58% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 59% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 60% CPC 32% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 60% CPC 32% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 59% CPC 32% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 60% CPC 32% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 59% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 59% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 59% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 59% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 59% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 59% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 59% CPC 30% NDP 4% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 59% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 58% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 58% CPC 31% NDP 4% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 57% CPC 32% NDP 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 53% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 54% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 54% CPC 32% NDP 8% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 53% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 53% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 53% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 53% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 52% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 62% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 62% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 62% CPC 33% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 62% CPC 33% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Toronto—St. Paul’s

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Toronto—St. Paul’s



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 62% ± 6% 55.1% 49.5% 61.9% CPC 33% ± 6% 22.2% 26.5% 33.1% NDP 3% ± 2% 14.3% 15.9% 3.5% GPC 1% ± 1% 6.8% 5.6% 0.8% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.5% 2.5% 0.5% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.