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Canada

Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
CPC safe
Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake 50% ± 8% CPC 23% ± 6% LPC 18% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC 4% ± 5% PPC CPC 2021 37.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake

LPC 23% ± 6% CPC 50% ± 8% NDP 18% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 3% PPC 4% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 51% LPC 23% NDP 19% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 51% LPC 23% NDP 18% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 50% LPC 24% NDP 18% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 50% LPC 24% NDP 19% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 50% LPC 24% NDP 18% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 49% LPC 24% NDP 19% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 49% LPC 23% NDP 20% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 50% LPC 23% NDP 19% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 50% LPC 23% NDP 19% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 50% LPC 23% NDP 18% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 50% LPC 23% NDP 18% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 34.3% 37.4% 50% ± 8% LPC 34.1% 35.2% 23% ± 6% NDP 17.2% 17.9% 18% ± 5% PPC 1.3% 7.6% 4% ± 5% GPC 4.7% 1.9% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.