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Canada

Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake


MP elect: Tony Baldinelli (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC leaning

Candidates | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake


Liberal Andrea Kaiser
Conservative Tony Baldinelli*
NDP Shannon Mitchell
Green Celia Taylor
PPC Dinah Althorpe
Centrist Yawar Anwar

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake 49% ± 0%▲ CPC 45% ± 0%▲ LPC 4% ± 0%▼ NDP CPC 2025 49.4% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake 86%▲ CPC 14%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake

LPC 45% ± 0% CPC 49% ± 0% NDP 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 47% LPC 32% NDP 13% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 46% LPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 45% LPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 44% LPC 37% NDP 11% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 11% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 11% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 11% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 44% LPC 38% NDP 11% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 44% LPC 40% NDP 9% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 44% LPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 44% LPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 44% LPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 44% LPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 45% LPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 44% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 44% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 44% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 43% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 43% LPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 44% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 44% LPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 49% LPC 45% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake

LPC 14% CPC 86% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 49% ± 0% 34.3% 37.4% 49.4% LPC 45% ± 0% 34.1% 35.2% 44.8% NDP 4% ± 0% 17.2% 17.9% 3.9% GPC 1% ± 0% 4.7% 1.9% 0.8% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.3% 7.6% 0.8% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.