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Canada

Saanich—Gulf Islands



Latest projection: December 1, 2024
GPC leaning
Saanich—Gulf Islands 37% ± 8% GPC 31% ± 6%▲ CPC 18% ± 5% NDP 12% ± 4% LPC GPC 2021 35.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 1, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saanich—Gulf Islands 84%▼ GPC 16%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 1, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saanich—Gulf Islands

LPC 12% ± 4% CPC 31% ± 6% NDP 18% ± 5% GPC 37% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Saanich—Gulf Islands 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 1, 2024 2024-05-12 GPC 41% CPC 32% NDP 15% LPC 11% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 GPC 41% CPC 31% NDP 15% LPC 11% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 GPC 41% CPC 31% NDP 15% LPC 11% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 GPC 40% CPC 31% NDP 16% LPC 12% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 GPC 40% CPC 30% NDP 16% LPC 12% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 GPC 40% CPC 30% NDP 16% LPC 12% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 GPC 39% CPC 30% NDP 17% LPC 12% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 GPC 38% CPC 29% NDP 18% LPC 12% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 GPC 38% CPC 29% NDP 17% LPC 12% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 GPC 38% CPC 29% NDP 17% LPC 12% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 GPC 38% CPC 29% NDP 17% LPC 12% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 GPC 38% CPC 29% NDP 17% LPC 12% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 GPC 37% CPC 29% NDP 18% LPC 13% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 GPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 18% LPC 13% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 GPC 38% CPC 29% NDP 18% LPC 12% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 GPC 38% CPC 29% NDP 18% LPC 13% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 GPC 38% CPC 30% NDP 16% LPC 13% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 GPC 39% CPC 29% NDP 16% LPC 13% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 GPC 38% CPC 30% NDP 16% LPC 14% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 GPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 16% LPC 14% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 GPC 37% CPC 31% NDP 16% LPC 14% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 GPC 37% CPC 31% NDP 17% LPC 12% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 GPC 37% CPC 31% NDP 17% LPC 12% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 GPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 17% LPC 13% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 GPC 38% CPC 29% NDP 17% LPC 13% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 GPC 38% CPC 30% NDP 17% LPC 13% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 GPC 36% CPC 30% NDP 18% LPC 13% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 GPC 36% CPC 30% NDP 18% LPC 13% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 GPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 18% LPC 12% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 GPC 37% CPC 31% NDP 18% LPC 12% 2024-12-01

Odds of winning | Saanich—Gulf Islands

LPC <1% CPC 16% NDP <1% GPC 84% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 1, 2024 2024-05-12 GPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 GPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 GPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 GPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 GPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 GPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 GPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 GPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 GPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 GPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 GPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 GPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 GPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 GPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 GPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 GPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 GPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 GPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 GPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 GPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 GPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 GPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 GPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 GPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 GPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 GPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 GPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 GPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 GPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 GPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-01

Recent electoral history | Saanich—Gulf Islands



2019 2021 Proj. GPC 47.7% 35.8% 37% ± 8% CPC 20.5% 22.6% 31% ± 6% NDP 13.6% 19.5% 18% ± 5% LPC 16.9% 18.8% 12% ± 4% PPC 1.3% 3.0% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.