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Recent electoral history | Saanich—Gulf Islands


2019 2021 2025 Projection GPC 41% ± 8% 47.7% 35.8% 39.1% LPC 31% ± 6% 16.9% 18.8% 31.8% CPC 22% ± 5% 20.5% 22.6% 25.1% NDP 5% ± 3% 13.6% 19.5% 4.0% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.3% 3.0% 0.0%
Latest update: March 15, 2026

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338Canada Saanich—Gulf Islands projection

Latest update: March 15, 2026

Saanich—Gulf Islands 33% 50% 41% ± 8% GPC 25% 37% 31% ± 6% LPC 17% 28% 22% ± 5% CPC 1% 8% 5% ± 3% NDP GPC 2025 39.1% 338Canada vote projection | March 15, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saanich—Gulf Islands 96%▼ GPC 4%▲ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | March 15, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Vote Projection | Saanich—Gulf Islands

Odds of winning | Saanich—Gulf Islands



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Demographic data | Saanich—Gulf Islands

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 92.9% English 1.9% Mandarin 1.0% Cantonese 0.8% Punjabi 0.3% Tagalog 0.3% Korean 0.3% SpanishSaanich—Gulf IslandsSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 4.9% No diploma 22.9% High school 7.9% Trade 19.6% College / Cégep 3.4% Some university 25.2% Bachelor's 16.0% PostgraduateSaanich—Gulf IslandsSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 83.4% Not visible minority 16.6% Visible minority 6.4% Chinese 3.7% South Asian 1.5% Filipino 0.9% Japanese 0.8% Black 0.8% Southeast AsianSaanich—Gulf IslandsSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 57.8% No Religion 10.3% Catholic 6.5% Christian (n.o.s.) 6.5% Anglican 4.6% United Church 2.1% Other Christian 1.9% Sikh 1.3% BaptistSaanich—Gulf IslandsSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 77.7% Owner 22.0% Renter 0.3% Community housingSaanich—Gulf IslandsSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 52.9% Employed 43.5% Not in labour force 3.5% UnemployedSaanich—Gulf IslandsSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 95.8% Non-Indigenous 4.2% Indigenous identity 2.6% First Nations 1.3% Metis 0.1% Others 0.1% MultipleSaanich—Gulf IslandsSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 81.9% Car / truck / van 6.3% Walking 5.5% Public transit 3.5% Bicycle 2.7% OtherSaanich—Gulf IslandsSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.