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Canada

Saanich—Gulf Islands


MP elect: Elizabeth May (GPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
GPC likely

Candidates | Saanich—Gulf Islands


Liberal David Beckham
Conservative Cathie Ounsted
NDP Colin Plant
Green Elizabeth May *

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Saanich—Gulf Islands 39% ± 5% GPC 32% ± 5% LPC 25% ± 5% CPC 4% ± 2% NDP GPC 2025 38.8% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saanich—Gulf Islands 96%▼ GPC 4%▲ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saanich—Gulf Islands

LPC 32% ± 5% CPC 25% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 2% GPC 39% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Saanich—Gulf Islands 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 GPC 35% CPC 33% NDP 19% LPC 11% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 34% GPC 34% NDP 18% LPC 12% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 34% GPC 33% NDP 18% LPC 12% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 34% GPC 33% NDP 18% LPC 13% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 GPC 33% CPC 33% NDP 17% LPC 15% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 GPC 34% CPC 31% LPC 17% NDP 16% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 GPC 35% CPC 30% LPC 18% NDP 15% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 GPC 34% CPC 28% LPC 20% NDP 15% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 GPC 33% CPC 28% LPC 21% NDP 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 GPC 33% CPC 29% LPC 22% NDP 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 GPC 32% CPC 30% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 GPC 32% CPC 30% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 GPC 31% CPC 30% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 GPC 31% CPC 30% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 GPC 31% CPC 30% LPC 29% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 GPC 30% CPC 30% LPC 29% NDP 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 32% CPC 29% GPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 32% CPC 30% GPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 33% CPC 30% GPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 31% CPC 31% GPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 32% CPC 30% GPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 32% CPC 30% GPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 32% CPC 31% GPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 33% CPC 30% GPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 33% CPC 30% GPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 34% CPC 30% GPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 32% CPC 31% GPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 32% CPC 31% GPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 32% LPC 31% GPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 32% LPC 31% GPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 32% LPC 31% GPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 33% GPC 30% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 32% GPC 31% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 GPC 33% CPC 32% LPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 GPC 33% CPC 32% LPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 GPC 33% CPC 32% LPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 GPC 33% CPC 32% LPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 GPC 33% CPC 32% LPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 33% GPC 33% LPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 33% GPC 32% LPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 33% GPC 33% LPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 33% GPC 33% LPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 34% GPC 33% LPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 35% GPC 34% LPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 35% GPC 33% LPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 35% GPC 33% LPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 34% GPC 34% LPC 25% NDP 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 34% GPC 33% LPC 25% NDP 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 34% GPC 33% LPC 25% NDP 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 35% GPC 33% LPC 25% NDP 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 34% GPC 33% LPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 GPC 39% LPC 32% CPC 25% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 GPC 39% LPC 32% CPC 25% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 GPC 39% LPC 32% CPC 25% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 GPC 39% LPC 32% CPC 25% NDP 4% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Saanich—Gulf Islands

LPC 4% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC 96% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 GPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 53% GPC 47% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 53% GPC 47% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 53% GPC 47% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 GPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 GPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 GPC 76% CPC 24% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 GPC 82% CPC 18% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 GPC 80% CPC 20% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 GPC 70% CPC 30% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 GPC 62% CPC 29% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 GPC 56% CPC 30% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 GPC 53% CPC 31% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 GPC 48% CPC 33% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 GPC 47% CPC 32% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 GPC 42% CPC 33% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 57% GPC 22% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 60% CPC 21% GPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 63% CPC 20% GPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 44% CPC 33% GPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 49% CPC 30% GPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 53% CPC 29% GPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 52% CPC 32% GPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 63% CPC 24% GPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 65% CPC 23% GPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 73% CPC 17% GPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 44% CPC 37% GPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 41% CPC 40% GPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 41% LPC 38% GPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 42% LPC 32% GPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 44% LPC 30% GPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 54% GPC 26% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 47% GPC 31% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 GPC 54% CPC 42% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 GPC 58% CPC 39% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 GPC 58% CPC 41% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 GPC 57% CPC 42% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 GPC 52% CPC 47% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 51% GPC 49% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 53% GPC 46% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 50% GPC 49% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 52% GPC 48% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 53% GPC 46% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 55% GPC 45% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 60% GPC 40% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 63% GPC 37% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 52% GPC 48% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 53% GPC 46% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 56% GPC 44% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 58% GPC 41% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 56% GPC 42% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 GPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 GPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 GPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 GPC 96% LPC 4% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Saanich—Gulf Islands



2019 2021 2025 Proj. GPC 39% ± 5% 47.7% 35.8% 38.8% LPC 32% ± 5% 16.9% 18.8% 31.9% CPC 25% ± 5% 20.5% 22.6% 25.2% NDP 4% ± 2% 13.6% 19.5% 4.0% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.3% 3.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.