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Saanich—Gulf Islands



Latest projection: April 14, 2025
Toss up CPC/GPC

Candidates | Saanich—Gulf Islands


Liberal David Beckham
Conservative Cathie Ounsted
NDP Colin Plant
Green Elizabeth May *
PPC Raymon Farmere

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Saanich—Gulf Islands 33% ± 8% GPC 32% ± 7% CPC 24% ± 6%▼ LPC 9% ± 4% NDP GPC 2021 35.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 14, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saanich—Gulf Islands 57%▼ GPC 42%▲ CPC 1% LPC Odds of winning | April 14, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saanich—Gulf Islands

LPC 24% ± 6% CPC 32% ± 7% NDP 9% ± 4% GPC 33% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Saanich—Gulf Islands 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 14, 2025 2025-03-09 GPC 33% CPC 28% LPC 21% NDP 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 GPC 33% CPC 29% LPC 22% NDP 13% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 GPC 32% CPC 30% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 GPC 32% CPC 30% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 GPC 31% CPC 30% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 GPC 31% CPC 30% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 GPC 31% CPC 30% LPC 29% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 GPC 30% CPC 30% LPC 29% NDP 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 32% CPC 29% GPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 32% CPC 30% GPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 33% CPC 30% GPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 31% CPC 31% GPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 32% CPC 30% GPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 32% CPC 30% GPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 32% CPC 31% GPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 33% CPC 30% GPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 33% CPC 30% GPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 34% CPC 30% GPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 32% CPC 31% GPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 32% CPC 31% GPC 29% NDP 7% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 32% LPC 31% GPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 32% LPC 31% GPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 32% LPC 31% GPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 33% GPC 30% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 32% GPC 31% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 GPC 33% CPC 32% LPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 GPC 33% CPC 32% LPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 GPC 33% CPC 32% LPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 GPC 33% CPC 32% LPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Saanich—Gulf Islands

LPC 1% CPC 42% NDP <1% GPC 57% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 14, 2025 2025-03-09 GPC 80% CPC 20% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 GPC 70% CPC 30% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 GPC 62% CPC 29% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 GPC 56% CPC 30% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 GPC 53% CPC 31% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 GPC 48% CPC 33% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 GPC 47% CPC 32% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 GPC 42% CPC 33% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 57% GPC 22% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 60% CPC 21% GPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 63% CPC 20% GPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 44% CPC 33% GPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 49% CPC 30% GPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 53% CPC 29% GPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 52% CPC 32% GPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 63% CPC 24% GPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 65% CPC 23% GPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 73% CPC 17% GPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 44% CPC 37% GPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 41% CPC 40% GPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 41% LPC 38% GPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 42% LPC 32% GPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 44% LPC 30% GPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 54% GPC 26% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 47% GPC 31% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 GPC 54% CPC 42% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 GPC 58% CPC 39% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 GPC 58% CPC 41% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 GPC 57% CPC 42% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Saanich—Gulf Islands



2019 2021 Proj. GPC 47.7% 35.8% 33% ± 8% CPC 20.5% 22.6% 32% ± 7% LPC 16.9% 18.8% 24% ± 6% NDP 13.6% 19.5% 9% ± 4% PPC 1.3% 3.0% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.