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Burlington North—Milton West



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Burlington North—Milton West


Liberal Adam van Koeverden*
Conservative Nadeem Akbar
NDP Naveed Abdul Ahmed
PPC Charles Zach

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Burlington North—Milton West 56% ± 8%▲ LPC 39% ± 8%▲ CPC 4% ± 3% NDP LPC 2021 47.9% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Burlington North—Milton West 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Burlington North—Milton West

LPC 56% ± 8% CPC 39% ± 8% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Burlington North—Milton West 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 45% CPC 42% NDP 7% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 46% CPC 41% NDP 7% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 49% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 49% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 50% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 49% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 50% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 50% CPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 51% CPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 51% CPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 52% CPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 52% CPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 53% CPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 52% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 53% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 54% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 54% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 55% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 54% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 56% CPC 39% NDP 4% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Burlington North—Milton West

LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Burlington North—Milton West



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 49.5% 47.9% 56% ± 8% CPC 37.0% 36.6% 39% ± 8% NDP 7.8% 9.6% 4% ± 3% PPC 1.1% 4.0% 1% ± 2% GPC 4.7% 1.9% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.