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Canada


Davenport (federal)


MP: Julie Dzerowicz (LPC)


Latest projection: April 14, 2024

Toss up LPC/NDP
Davenport 39% ± 7% 38% ± 7%▲ 14% ± 4% 7% ± 4% LPC 2021 42.14% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Davenport 59%▼ 41%▲ <1% Odds of winning | April 14, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Davenport

LPC 38% ± 7% CPC 14% ± 4% NDP 39% ± 7% GPC 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Davenport 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Davenport

LPC 41% CPC <1% NDP 59% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Davenport



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 44.3% 43.7% 42.14% 38% ± 7% NDP 41.4% 41.0% 41.79% 39% ± 7% CPC 10.6% 9.3% 10.06% 14% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 0.9% 3.36% 2% ± 2% GPC 3.1% 4.5% 2.29% 7% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.3% 0.36% 0% ± 0%