logo
Canada

Burlington North—Milton West


MP: Adam van Koeverden (LPC)

Latest projection: June 29, 2025
LPC likely

Recent electoral history | Burlington North—Milton West


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 54% ± 8% 49.5% 47.9% 52.7% CPC 43% ± 8% 37.0% 36.6% 44.3% NDP 2% ± 2% 7.8% 9.6% 2.1% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.1% 4.0% 0.9% GPC 0% ± 0% 4.7% 1.9% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Burlington-Nord—Milton-Ouest


Burlington North—Milton West 54% ± 8% LPC 43% ± 8% CPC LPC 2025 52.7% 338Canada vote projection | June 29, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Burlington North—Milton West 93%▼ LPC 7%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 29, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Burlington North—Milton West

LPC 54% ± 8% CPC 43% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Burlington North—Milton West 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 50% LPC 31% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 49% LPC 33% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 49% LPC 33% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 47% LPC 36% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 45% LPC 39% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 43% LPC 43% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 45% CPC 41% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 45% CPC 42% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 46% CPC 41% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 50% CPC 38% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 49% CPC 39% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 50% CPC 38% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 50% CPC 38% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 51% CPC 38% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 51% CPC 38% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 52% CPC 38% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 52% CPC 38% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 53% CPC 38% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 53% CPC 38% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 52% CPC 39% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 53% CPC 39% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 54% CPC 38% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 54% CPC 38% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 55% CPC 38% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 54% CPC 38% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 56% CPC 39% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 56% CPC 39% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 55% CPC 39% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 54% CPC 40% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 53% CPC 41% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 54% CPC 40% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 54% CPC 41% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 54% CPC 41% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 54% CPC 41% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 54% CPC 41% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 53% CPC 41% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 53% CPC 42% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 53% CPC 44% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 53% CPC 44% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 53% CPC 44% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 53% CPC 44% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 53% CPC 44% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 53% CPC 44% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 53% CPC 44% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 54% CPC 43% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 54% CPC 43% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Burlington North—Milton West

LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader