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Recent electoral history | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 41% ± 8% 28.3% 26.0% 41.2% BQ 35% ± 8% 36.1% 37.9% 34.0% CPC 19% ± 6% 16.6% 15.9% 22.4% NDP 3% ± 3% 13.0% 11.7% 2.5% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.2% 3.8% 0.0%

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338Canada Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou projection

Latest update: March 8, 2026

Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou 33% 49% 41% ± 8% LPC 27% 43% 35% ± 8% BQ 13% 25% 19% ± 6% CPC 0% 6% 3% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 41.2% 338Canada vote projection | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou 84%▲ LPC 16%▼ BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou

LPC 41% ± 8% CPC 19% ± 6% BQ 35% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 34% BQ 34% CPC 24% NDP 8% GPC 0% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 34% BQ 34% CPC 24% NDP 7% GPC 0% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 35% BQ 34% CPC 24% NDP 7% GPC 0% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 23% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 23% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 23% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 22% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 22% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 22% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 41% BQ 35% CPC 22% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 42% BQ 34% CPC 22% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 43% BQ 33% CPC 21% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 45% BQ 32% CPC 20% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 45% BQ 32% CPC 20% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 46% BQ 32% CPC 20% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 45% BQ 32% CPC 20% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 46% BQ 32% CPC 19% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 44% BQ 33% CPC 19% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 43% BQ 34% CPC 20% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 43% BQ 34% CPC 20% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 42% BQ 35% CPC 20% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 41% BQ 36% CPC 20% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 41% BQ 35% CPC 21% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 21% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 40% BQ 35% CPC 22% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 40% BQ 35% CPC 22% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 39% BQ 36% CPC 21% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 39% BQ 36% CPC 21% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 39% BQ 36% CPC 22% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 39% BQ 36% CPC 22% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 39% BQ 36% CPC 22% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 38% BQ 36% CPC 22% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 38% BQ 36% CPC 22% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 38% BQ 36% CPC 22% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 39% BQ 38% CPC 20% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 38% BQ 37% CPC 21% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 BQ 38% LPC 37% CPC 21% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 BQ 37% LPC 37% CPC 19% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 BQ 37% LPC 37% CPC 19% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 BQ 37% LPC 37% CPC 19% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 BQ 38% LPC 36% CPC 19% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 BQ 38% LPC 36% CPC 19% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 39% BQ 34% CPC 20% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 40% BQ 34% CPC 20% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 20% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 20% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC 41% BQ 35% CPC 19% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 LPC 41% BQ 35% CPC 19% NDP 3% GPC 1% 2026-03-08

Odds of winning | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou

LPC 84% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 16% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 52% BQ 48% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 52% BQ 47% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 59% BQ 41% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 89% BQ 11% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 89% BQ 11% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 88% BQ 12% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 89% BQ 11% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 86% BQ 14% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 85% BQ 15% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 83% BQ 17% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 86% BQ 14% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 93% BQ 7% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 89% BQ 11% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 87% BQ 13% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 78% BQ 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 82% BQ 18% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 85% BQ 15% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 79% BQ 21% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 79% BQ 21% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 68% BQ 32% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 67% BQ 33% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 66% BQ 34% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 66% BQ 34% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 68% BQ 32% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 65% BQ 35% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 62% BQ 38% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 62% BQ 38% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 54% BQ 46% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 54% BQ 46% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 BQ 56% LPC 44% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 BQ 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 BQ 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 BQ 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 BQ 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 BQ 62% LPC 38% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 77% BQ 23% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 84% BQ 16% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 84% BQ 16% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 LPC 84% BQ 16% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-03-08


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Demographic data | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 64.3% French 14.1% Algonquian 13.9% Cree 13.7% Inuktitut 7.5% English 0.1% Spanish 0.1% ArabicAbitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—EeyouSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 28.5% No diploma 17.6% High school 22.1% Trade 16.0% College / Cégep 2.8% Some university 9.5% Bachelor's 3.5% PostgraduateAbitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—EeyouSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 97.5% Not visible minority 2.5% Visible minority 1.2% Black 0.4% Arab 0.2% Filipino 0.2% Latin American 0.1% Southeast Asian 0.1% ChineseAbitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—EeyouSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 43.7% Catholic 26.1% No Religion 18.8% Anglican 4.0% Christian (n.o.s.) 3.5% Pentecostal 1.3% Indigenous Spirituality 0.8% Muslim 0.7% Other ChristianAbitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—EeyouSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 50.6% Owner 39.9% Renter 9.5% Community housingAbitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—EeyouSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 59.7% Employed 36.4% Not in labour force 3.9% UnemployedAbitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—EeyouSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 60.4% Non-Indigenous 39.6% Indigenous identity 23.1% First Nations 14.4% Inuk 1.4% Metis 0.5% Others 0.3% MultipleAbitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—EeyouSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 79.8% Car / truck / van 12.3% Walking 6.6% Other 0.7% Bicycle 0.6% Public transitAbitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—EeyouSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.