logo
Canada

Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou


MP elect: Mandy Gull (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC leaning

Candidates | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou


Liberal Mandy Gull
Conservative Steve Corriveau
NDP Thai Dillon Higashihara
Bloc Quebecois Sylvie Berube*

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou 41% ± 8% LPC 34% ± 7% BQ 22% ± 6%▼ CPC LPC 2025 41.2% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou 89%▲ LPC 11%▼ BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou

LPC 41% ± 8% CPC 22% ± 6% BQ 34% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 42% CPC 25% LPC 13% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 41% CPC 26% LPC 13% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 41% CPC 26% LPC 13% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 41% CPC 25% LPC 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 39% CPC 24% LPC 17% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 38% CPC 24% LPC 18% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 37% CPC 25% LPC 20% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 36% CPC 25% LPC 22% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 35% CPC 25% LPC 22% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 34% CPC 25% LPC 24% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 34% LPC 26% CPC 24% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 33% LPC 26% CPC 24% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 33% LPC 26% CPC 24% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 33% LPC 26% CPC 24% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 34% LPC 26% CPC 24% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 34% LPC 26% CPC 24% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 33% LPC 29% CPC 23% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 33% LPC 29% CPC 23% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 32% LPC 30% CPC 23% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 32% LPC 30% CPC 24% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 31% LPC 31% CPC 24% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 31% BQ 31% CPC 24% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 31% BQ 31% CPC 24% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 32% BQ 31% CPC 25% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 33% BQ 30% CPC 25% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 34% BQ 30% CPC 25% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 33% BQ 30% CPC 25% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 33% BQ 30% CPC 24% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 33% BQ 31% CPC 24% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 33% BQ 31% CPC 25% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 33% BQ 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 33% BQ 32% CPC 23% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 35% BQ 33% CPC 24% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 35% BQ 33% CPC 25% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 35% BQ 33% CPC 25% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 34% BQ 33% CPC 25% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 34% BQ 33% CPC 25% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 34% BQ 33% CPC 25% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 35% BQ 33% CPC 25% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 35% BQ 33% CPC 25% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 34% BQ 33% CPC 25% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 34% BQ 34% CPC 25% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 34% BQ 34% CPC 25% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 34% LPC 33% CPC 25% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 35% LPC 33% CPC 25% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 35% BQ 34% CPC 24% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 34% LPC 34% CPC 25% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 34% LPC 34% CPC 25% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 34% BQ 34% CPC 24% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 34% BQ 34% CPC 24% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 35% BQ 34% CPC 24% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 23% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 23% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 23% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 22% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou

LPC 89% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 11% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 97% CPC 3% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 95% CPC 4% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 93% CPC 4% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 88% LPC 8% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 87% LPC 10% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 86% LPC 10% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 87% LPC 10% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 88% LPC 9% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 89% LPC 8% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 74% LPC 25% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 71% LPC 27% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 63% LPC 35% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 57% LPC 41% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 49% LPC 48% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 52% BQ 44% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 50% BQ 47% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 58% BQ 39% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 64% BQ 32% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 70% BQ 27% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 66% BQ 31% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 67% BQ 30% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 62% BQ 35% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 64% BQ 33% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 62% BQ 37% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 56% BQ 43% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 60% BQ 39% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 59% BQ 39% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 58% BQ 41% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 57% BQ 41% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 52% BQ 45% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 56% BQ 42% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 62% BQ 37% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 58% BQ 41% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 55% BQ 44% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 52% BQ 47% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 52% BQ 47% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 57% LPC 41% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 63% LPC 35% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 51% BQ 48% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 52% LPC 47% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 54% LPC 45% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 52% BQ 48% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 52% BQ 47% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 59% BQ 41% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 89% BQ 11% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 89% BQ 11% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 88% BQ 12% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 89% BQ 11% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 41% ± 8% 28.3% 26.0% 41.2% BQ 34% ± 7% 36.1% 37.9% 34.0% CPC 22% ± 6% 16.6% 15.9% 22.4% NDP 2% ± 2% 13.0% 11.7% 2.5% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.2% 3.8% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 3.6% 1.6% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.