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Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou


Latest projection: May 12, 2024
BQ safe
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou 40% ± 9% BQ 24% ± 7% CPC 16% ± 6% LPC 14% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 4% GPC BQ 2021 37.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | May 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou

LPC 16% ± 6% CPC 24% ± 7% NDP 14% ± 6% GPC 4% ± 4% BQ 40% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ May 12, 2024

Odds of winning | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 12, 2024

Recent electoral history | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 36.1% 37.9% 40% ± 9% LPC 28.3% 26.0% 16% ± 6% CPC 16.6% 15.9% 24% ± 7% NDP 13.0% 11.7% 14% ± 6% PPC 1.2% 3.8% 2% ± 3% GPC 3.6% 1.6% 4% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.