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Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
BQ safe
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou 41% ± 9% BQ 22% ± 7% CPC 16% ± 6% LPC 15% ± 6%▲ NDP 4% ± 4% GPC BQ 2021 37.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou

LPC 16% ± 6% CPC 22% ± 7% NDP 15% ± 6% GPC 4% ± 4% BQ 41% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 40% CPC 24% LPC 16% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 42% CPC 23% LPC 16% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 41% CPC 23% LPC 16% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 39% CPC 24% LPC 17% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 38% CPC 25% LPC 17% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 37% CPC 25% LPC 17% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 39% CPC 24% LPC 16% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 40% CPC 24% LPC 15% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 40% CPC 24% LPC 15% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 40% CPC 23% LPC 16% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 40% CPC 23% LPC 16% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 40% CPC 23% LPC 16% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 40% CPC 23% LPC 17% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 39% CPC 23% LPC 17% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 39% CPC 24% LPC 16% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 38% CPC 23% LPC 17% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 37% CPC 23% LPC 18% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 38% CPC 22% LPC 17% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 39% CPC 22% LPC 17% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 39% CPC 22% LPC 17% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 39% CPC 22% LPC 16% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 39% CPC 22% NDP 16% LPC 16% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 39% CPC 22% LPC 16% NDP 16% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 40% CPC 21% LPC 16% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 40% CPC 21% LPC 16% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 41% CPC 21% LPC 16% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 41% CPC 22% LPC 16% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 41% CPC 22% LPC 16% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 36.1% 37.9% 41% ± 9% LPC 28.3% 26.0% 16% ± 6% CPC 16.6% 15.9% 22% ± 7% NDP 13.0% 11.7% 15% ± 6% PPC 1.2% 3.8% 2% ± 3% GPC 3.6% 1.6% 4% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.