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Canada

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC likely
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 41% ± 7% CPC 27% ± 6% LPC 24% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 5% PPC 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 39.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton East—Stoney Creek >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

LPC 27% ± 6% CPC 41% ± 7% NDP 24% ± 6% GPC 4% ± 3% PPC 4% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 40% LPC 30% NDP 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 40% LPC 30% NDP 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 39% LPC 31% NDP 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 39% LPC 31% NDP 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 39% LPC 31% NDP 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 38% LPC 31% NDP 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 38% LPC 30% NDP 24% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 39% LPC 30% NDP 23% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 39% LPC 30% NDP 23% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 39% LPC 30% NDP 22% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 39% LPC 30% NDP 22% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 39% LPC 30% NDP 22% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 39% LPC 29% NDP 23% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 39% LPC 29% NDP 23% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 38% LPC 30% NDP 23% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 37% LPC 31% NDP 22% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 38% LPC 31% NDP 21% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 39% LPC 31% NDP 21% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 40% LPC 30% NDP 21% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 41% LPC 30% NDP 20% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 42% LPC 29% NDP 21% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 42% LPC 28% NDP 21% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 41% LPC 29% NDP 22% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 40% LPC 29% NDP 22% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 40% LPC 29% NDP 22% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 40% LPC 29% NDP 22% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 40% LPC 29% NDP 22% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 39% LPC 30% NDP 22% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 41% LPC 28% NDP 22% GPC 4% PPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 41% LPC 28% NDP 22% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 41% LPC 27% NDP 24% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 41% LPC 27% NDP 24% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 40.7% 39.1% 27% ± 6% CPC 27.4% 30.1% 41% ± 7% NDP 25.0% 21.7% 24% ± 6% PPC 1.9% 7.3% 4% ± 5% GPC 5.0% 1.9% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.