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Canada

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek


MP elect: Ned Kuruc (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek


Liberal Chad Collins*
Conservative Ned Kuruc
NDP Nayla Mithani
PPC Jim Boutsikakis

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 49% ± 6% CPC 47% ± 6%▲ LPC 4% ± 2% NDP CPC 2025 48.7% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 65%▼ CPC 35%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

LPC 47% ± 6% CPC 49% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 43% LPC 25% NDP 24% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 42% LPC 27% NDP 23% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 42% LPC 27% NDP 23% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 40% LPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 20% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 38% CPC 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 40% CPC 37% NDP 15% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 41% CPC 36% NDP 15% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 43% CPC 36% NDP 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 46% CPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 46% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 46% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 46% CPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 49% CPC 34% NDP 11% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 49% CPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 51% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 51% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 51% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 52% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 53% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 54% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 54% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 54% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 54% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 56% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 56% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 56% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 56% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 56% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 49% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

LPC 35% CPC 65% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 49% ± 6% 27.4% 30.1% 48.7% LPC 47% ± 6% 40.7% 39.1% 46.5% NDP 4% ± 2% 25.0% 21.7% 3.7% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.9% 7.3% 1.1% GPC 0% ± 0% 5.0% 1.9% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.