logo
Canada

Recent electoral history | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek


2019 2021 2025 Projection CPC 45% ± 7% 27.4% 30.1% 48.7% LPC 44% ± 7% 40.7% 39.1% 46.5% NDP 8% ± 4% 25.0% 21.7% 3.7% PPC 1% ± 2% 1.9% 7.3% 1.1%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Canada flag

338Canada Hamilton East—Stoney Creek projection

Latest update: February 1, 2026

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 38% 52% 45% ± 7% CPC 37% 51% 44% ± 7% LPC 4% 11% 8% ± 4% NDP CPC 2025 48.7% 338Canada vote projection | February 1, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 57%▼ CPC 43%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 1, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

LPC 44% ± 7% CPC 45% ± 7% NDP 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC February 1, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 9% GPC 0% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 9% GPC 0% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 8% GPC 0% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 49% LPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 49% LPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 47% LPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 48% CPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 47% CPC 47% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 47% CPC 47% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 47% LPC 46% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 49% LPC 44% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 48% LPC 44% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 47% LPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 46% LPC 46% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 46% LPC 45% NDP 7% GPC 0% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 45% LPC 42% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 45% LPC 42% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 46% LPC 42% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 46% LPC 42% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 45% LPC 43% NDP 9% GPC 1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2026-02-01

Odds of winning | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

LPC 43% CPC 57% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 1, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2026-02-01


Flag of Canada

Demographic data | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 81.8% English 3.3% Serbo-Croatian 2.3% Punjabi 1.6% Arabic 1.5% Urdu 1.2% Italian 1.1% PolishHamilton East—Stoney CreekSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 11.0% No diploma 27.0% High school 6.1% Trade 27.3% College / Cégep 2.2% Some university 18.2% Bachelor's 8.1% PostgraduateHamilton East—Stoney CreekSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 72.7% Not visible minority 27.3% Visible minority 10.2% South Asian 4.9% Black 3.0% Arab 2.1% Latin American 1.8% Southeast Asian 1.6% FilipinoHamilton East—Stoney CreekSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 34.7% Catholic 25.0% No Religion 9.0% Muslim 6.1% Christian (n.o.s.) 5.7% Orthodox 3.2% Sikh 3.0% Anglican 2.6% United ChurchHamilton East—Stoney CreekSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 69.3% Owner 30.6% RenterHamilton East—Stoney CreekSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 53.1% Employed 39.0% Not in labour force 7.9% UnemployedHamilton East—Stoney CreekSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 98.2% Non-Indigenous 1.8% Indigenous identity 1.3% First Nations 0.5% MetisHamilton East—Stoney CreekSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 90.5% Car / truck / van 5.1% Public transit 2.6% Walking 1.4% Other 0.3% BicycleHamilton East—Stoney CreekSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.