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Canada

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
CPC likely
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 39% ± 7% CPC 30% ± 7% LPC 22% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 5% PPC 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 39.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 96% CPC 4% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

LPC 30% ± 7% CPC 39% ± 7% NDP 22% ± 6% GPC 4% ± 3% PPC 4% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 40% LPC 30% NDP 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 40% LPC 30% NDP 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 39% LPC 31% NDP 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 39% LPC 31% NDP 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 39% LPC 31% NDP 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 38% LPC 31% NDP 23% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 38% LPC 30% NDP 24% GPC 4% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 39% LPC 30% NDP 23% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 39% LPC 30% NDP 23% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 39% LPC 30% NDP 22% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 39% LPC 30% NDP 22% PPC 4% GPC 4% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

LPC 4% CPC 96% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 40.7% 39.1% 30% ± 7% CPC 27.4% 30.1% 39% ± 7% NDP 25.0% 21.7% 22% ± 6% PPC 1.9% 7.3% 4% ± 5% GPC 5.0% 1.9% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.