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Hamilton East—Stoney Creek



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek


Liberal Chad Collins*
Conservative Ned Kuruc
NDP Nayla Mithani
PPC Jim Boutsikakis

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 56% ± 8%▲ LPC 33% ± 8% CPC 9% ± 4%▲ NDP LPC 2021 39.1% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton East—Stoney Creek >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

LPC 56% ± 8% CPC 33% ± 8% NDP 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 43% CPC 36% NDP 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 46% CPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 46% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 46% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 46% CPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 49% CPC 34% NDP 11% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 49% CPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 51% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 51% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 51% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 52% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 53% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 54% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 54% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 54% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 54% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 56% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 40.7% 39.1% 56% ± 8% CPC 27.4% 30.1% 33% ± 8% NDP 25.0% 21.7% 9% ± 4% PPC 1.9% 7.3% 2% ± 3% GPC 5.0% 1.9% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.