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Canada

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek


MP: Ned Kuruc (CPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 47% ± 8% 27.4% 30.1% 48.7% LPC 47% ± 8% 40.7% 39.1% 46.5% NDP 4% ± 3% 25.0% 21.7% 3.7% PPC 1% ± 2% 1.9% 7.3% 1.1% GPC 0% ± 0% 5.0% 1.9% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek


Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 47% ± 8%▼ CPC 47% ± 8% LPC 4% ± 3% NDP CPC 2025 48.7% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 52% CPC 48% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

LPC 47% ± 8% CPC 47% ± 8% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 43% LPC 25% NDP 24% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 42% LPC 27% NDP 23% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 42% LPC 27% NDP 23% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 40% LPC 30% NDP 22% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 38% LPC 34% NDP 20% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 38% CPC 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 40% CPC 37% NDP 15% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 41% CPC 36% NDP 15% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 41% CPC 37% NDP 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 43% CPC 36% NDP 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 46% CPC 35% NDP 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 46% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 46% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 46% CPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 13% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 47% CPC 34% NDP 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 49% CPC 34% NDP 11% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 49% CPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 50% CPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 51% CPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 51% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 51% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 51% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 52% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 53% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 54% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 54% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 54% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 54% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 54% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 56% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 56% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 56% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 56% CPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 56% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 55% CPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 55% CPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 56% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 49% LPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 49% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 49% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 48% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 47% LPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

LPC 48% CPC 52% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader