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Canada

Edmonton Southeast


MP: Jagsharan Singh Mahal (CPC)

Latest projection: June 29, 2025
CPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Edmonton Southeast


2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 49% ± 9% 50.7% 37.7% 52.9% LPC 42% ± 8% 33.1% 34.0% 38.8% NDP 6% ± 4% 12.5% 22.3% 5.3% PPC 2% ± 2% 1.6% 5.7% 1.8%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Edmonton-Sud-Est


Edmonton Southeast 49% ± 9%▼ CPC 42% ± 8%▲ LPC 6% ± 4% NDP CPC 2025 52.9% 338Canada vote projection | June 29, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Edmonton Southeast 83%▼ CPC 17%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 29, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Edmonton Southeast

LPC 42% ± 8% CPC 49% ± 9% NDP 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Edmonton Southeast 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 49% LPC 27% NDP 20% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 50% LPC 28% NDP 19% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 50% LPC 28% NDP 19% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 49% LPC 29% NDP 19% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 48% LPC 31% NDP 18% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 48% LPC 32% NDP 18% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 49% LPC 33% NDP 15% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 47% LPC 35% NDP 15% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 46% LPC 36% NDP 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 48% CPC 39% NDP 11% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 49% CPC 38% NDP 11% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 49% CPC 38% NDP 11% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 46% CPC 39% NDP 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 46% CPC 39% NDP 12% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 46% CPC 40% NDP 13% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 46% CPC 41% NDP 11% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 46% CPC 41% NDP 11% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 46% CPC 41% NDP 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 46% CPC 42% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 46% CPC 42% NDP 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 46% CPC 42% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 47% CPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 47% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 47% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 47% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 47% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 48% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 8% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48% CPC 41% NDP 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 47% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 46% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 46% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 46% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 46% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 46% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 46% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 53% LPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 53% LPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 53% LPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 53% LPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 53% LPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 53% LPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 51% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 6% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Edmonton Southeast

LPC 17% CPC 83% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 69% CPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader