logo
logo
Canada

York—Durham



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC safe
York—Durham 65% ± 7% CPC 15% ± 5% LPC 14% ± 5% NDP 3% ± 4% PPC CPC 2021 51.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% York—Durham >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | York—Durham

LPC 15% ± 5% CPC 65% ± 7% NDP 14% ± 5% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | York—Durham 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP PPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 66% LPC 17% NDP 12% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 66% LPC 17% NDP 12% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 65% LPC 18% NDP 12% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 65% LPC 18% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 65% LPC 18% NDP 12% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 64% LPC 18% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 64% LPC 17% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 64% LPC 17% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 64% LPC 17% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 64% LPC 17% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 64% LPC 17% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 64% LPC 17% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 64% LPC 17% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 64% LPC 17% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 63% LPC 17% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 63% LPC 18% NDP 13% PPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 64% LPC 17% NDP 12% PPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 64% LPC 17% NDP 12% PPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 65% LPC 17% NDP 12% PPC 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 66% LPC 16% NDP 12% PPC 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 66% LPC 16% NDP 12% PPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 66% LPC 15% NDP 12% PPC 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 65% LPC 16% NDP 12% PPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 65% LPC 16% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 65% LPC 16% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 64% LPC 16% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 64% LPC 16% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 64% LPC 17% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 65% LPC 16% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 65% LPC 15% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 65% LPC 15% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 65% LPC 15% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | York—Durham

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | York—Durham



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 45.8% 51.8% 65% ± 7% LPC 27.7% 28.5% 15% ± 5% NDP 13.0% 12.6% 14% ± 5% PPC 1.7% 6.4% 3% ± 4% GPC 8.1% 0.6% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.