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Canada

York—Durham



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | York—Durham


Liberal Rob Grossi
Conservative Jacob Mantle
NDP Justin Graham
Green Matt Pearce
PPC Patricia Conlin

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


York—Durham 54% ± 8% CPC 37% ± 8%▼ LPC 5% ± 4% NDP CPC 2021 51.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% York—Durham 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | York—Durham

LPC 37% ± 8% CPC 54% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | York—Durham 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 59% LPC 26% NDP 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 56% LPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 56% LPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 56% LPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 55% LPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 56% LPC 31% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 55% LPC 33% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 55% LPC 33% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 55% LPC 34% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 54% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 54% LPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 55% LPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 56% LPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 56% LPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 55% LPC 36% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 56% LPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 56% LPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 56% LPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 56% LPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 57% LPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 57% LPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 56% LPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 54% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 54% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 54% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 54% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 54% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 54% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 54% LPC 38% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 54% LPC 37% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | York—Durham

LPC 1% CPC 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | York—Durham



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 45.8% 51.8% 54% ± 8% LPC 27.7% 28.5% 37% ± 8% NDP 13.0% 12.6% 5% ± 4% PPC 1.7% 6.4% 2% ± 3% GPC 8.1% 0.6% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.