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Canada


Humber River–Black Creek (federal)


MP: Judy Sgro (LPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

LPC safe hold
Humber River–Black Creek 48% ± 7% 24% ± 6% 20% ± 5% 5% ± 4% 3% ± 3% LPC 2021 60.69% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Humber River–Black Creek >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Humber River–Black Creek

LPC 48% ± 7% CPC 24% ± 6% NDP 20% ± 5% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Humber River–Black Creek 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Humber River–Black Creek

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Humber River–Black Creek



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 67.3% 61.1% 60.69% 48% ± 7% CPC 20.3% 16.2% 17.4% 24% ± 6% NDP 10.8% 19.0% 16.4% 20% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.1% 3.91% 3% ± 3% GPC 1.6% 2.1% 1.21% 5% ± 4%