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Nepean



Latest projection: April 14, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Nepean


Liberal Mark Carney
Conservative Barbara Bal
NDP Shyam Shukla
Green Greg Hopkins
PPC Eric Fleury

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Nepean 57% ± 8% LPC 34% ± 8% CPC 6% ± 3% NDP LPC 2021 45.7% 338Canada vote projection | April 14, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nepean >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 14, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nepean

LPC 57% ± 8% CPC 34% ± 8% NDP 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Nepean 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 14, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 45% CPC 38% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 47% CPC 37% NDP 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 52% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 52% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 53% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 54% CPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 54% CPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 54% CPC 35% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 54% CPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 55% CPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 56% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 57% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 56% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 57% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 57% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 56% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 56% CPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 57% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 57% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 57% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 57% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 57% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 57% CPC 34% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Nepean

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 14, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Nepean



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 46.8% 45.7% 57% ± 8% CPC 33.2% 33.4% 34% ± 8% NDP 12.9% 16.2% 6% ± 3% GPC 6.0% 1.9% 2% ± 2% PPC 0.9% 2.7% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.