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Nepean



Latest projection: March 16, 2025
LPC likely
Nepean 47% ± 8%▲ LPC 37% ± 8%▼ CPC 10% ± 5%▼ NDP 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 45.7% 338Canada vote projection | March 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nepean 93%▲ LPC 7%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nepean

LPC 47% ± 8% CPC 37% ± 8% NDP 10% ± 5% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Nepean 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 CPC 44% LPC 33% NDP 16% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 43% LPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 43% LPC 34% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 43% LPC 34% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 43% LPC 34% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 42% LPC 35% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 44% LPC 33% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 44% LPC 32% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 44% LPC 31% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 44% LPC 31% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 45% LPC 30% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 45% LPC 30% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 45% LPC 29% NDP 20% GPC 4% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 46% LPC 30% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 45% LPC 31% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 45% LPC 32% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 43% LPC 35% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 41% LPC 38% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 45% CPC 38% NDP 12% GPC 3% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 45% CPC 38% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 45% CPC 38% NDP 11% GPC 3% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 47% CPC 37% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2025-03-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Nepean

LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Nepean



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 46.8% 45.7% 47% ± 8% CPC 33.2% 33.4% 37% ± 8% NDP 12.9% 16.2% 10% ± 5% GPC 6.0% 1.9% 3% ± 3% PPC 0.9% 2.7% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.