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Canada

Nepean


MP elect: Mark Carney (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Nepean


Liberal Mark Carney
Conservative Barbara Bal
NDP Shyam Shukla
Green Greg Hopkins
PPC Eric Fleury

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Nepean 64% ± 0%▲ LPC 33% ± 0%▼ CPC LPC 2025 63.7% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nepean >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nepean

LPC 64% ± 0% CPC 33% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Nepean 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 45% CPC 38% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 47% CPC 37% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 49% CPC 36% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 50% CPC 35% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 50% CPC 35% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 50% CPC 35% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 50% CPC 35% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 50% CPC 35% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 52% CPC 35% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 52% CPC 35% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 53% CPC 35% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 54% CPC 35% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 54% CPC 35% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 54% CPC 35% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 54% CPC 36% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 55% CPC 36% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 56% CPC 35% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 57% CPC 35% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 58% CPC 33% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 58% CPC 33% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 57% CPC 34% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 58% CPC 34% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 64% CPC 33% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Nepean

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 82% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 93% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Nepean



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 64% ± 0% 46.8% 45.7% 63.7% CPC 33% ± 0% 33.2% 33.4% 33.4% NDP 2% ± 0% 12.9% 16.2% 2.0% GPC 1% ± 0% 6.0% 1.9% 0.6% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.9% 2.7% 0.4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.