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Canada

Scarborough—Agincourt



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
CPC leaning
Scarborough—Agincourt 42% ± 8% CPC 39% ± 8% LPC 13% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 56.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough—Agincourt 73% CPC 27% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Scarborough—Agincourt

LPC 39% ± 8% CPC 42% ± 8% NDP 13% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough—Agincourt 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 45% CPC 39% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 45% CPC 39% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 46% CPC 38% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 46% CPC 38% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 46% CPC 38% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 47% CPC 37% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 45% CPC 37% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 43% CPC 41% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 42% CPC 42% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 42% CPC 42% NDP 10% GPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 43% CPC 41% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 44% CPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 44% CPC 40% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 43% CPC 41% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 42% CPC 42% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 43% LPC 42% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 43% LPC 40% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 41% LPC 41% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 41% CPC 41% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 41% CPC 41% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 43% CPC 40% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 42% LPC 41% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 42% LPC 40% NDP 12% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 42% LPC 39% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 42% LPC 39% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Scarborough—Agincourt

LPC 27% CPC 73% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Scarborough—Agincourt



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 50.5% 56.2% 39% ± 8% CPC 36.8% 29.2% 42% ± 8% NDP 8.8% 10.1% 13% ± 5% PPC 1.2% 2.8% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.7% 1.7% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.