logo
Canada


Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola (federal)


MP: Dan Albas (CPC)


Latest projection: April 14, 2024

CPC safe hold
Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola 62% ± 7% 16% ± 5% 15% ± 5% 4% ± 3% 3% ± 3% CPC 2021 45.91% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | April 14, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola

LPC 15% ± 5% CPC 62% ± 7% NDP 16% ± 5% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 39.6% 47.9% 45.91% 62% ± 7% LPC 37.2% 25.0% 23.56% 15% ± 5% NDP 19.3% 16.8% 20.72% 16% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 2.1% 7.17% 3% ± 3% GPC 3.9% 7.8% 2.64% 4% ± 3%