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Canada

York South—Weston—Etobicoke


MP: Ahmed Hussen (LPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
LPC likely

Recent electoral history | York South—Weston—Etobicoke


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 55% ± 9% 58.4% 55.6% 55.3% CPC 40% ± 9% 21.2% 22.5% 39.8% NDP 5% ± 4% 15.1% 15.1% 4.9% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.5% 4.9% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 3.6% 1.9% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.



York South—Weston—Etobicoke 55% ± 9% LPC 40% ± 9% CPC 5% ± 4% NDP LPC 2025 55.3% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% York South—Weston—Etobicoke 98%▼ LPC 2%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | York South—Weston—Etobicoke

LPC 55% ± 9% CPC 40% ± 9% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | York South—Weston—Etobicoke 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 39% CPC 36% NDP 18% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 40% CPC 35% NDP 18% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 41% CPC 35% NDP 17% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 43% CPC 33% NDP 17% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 47% CPC 32% NDP 15% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 51% CPC 30% NDP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 54% CPC 29% NDP 11% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 54% CPC 29% NDP 11% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 53% CPC 29% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 55% CPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 58% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 58% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 58% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 58% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 59% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 60% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 61% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 64% CPC 26% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 64% CPC 26% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 65% CPC 26% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 65% CPC 26% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 64% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 65% CPC 26% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 66% CPC 26% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 66% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 66% CPC 26% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 66% CPC 26% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 66% CPC 26% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 67% CPC 26% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 67% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 67% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 66% CPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 66% CPC 27% NDP 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 65% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 65% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 66% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 66% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 65% CPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 65% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 66% CPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 55% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | York South—Weston—Etobicoke

LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader