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Canada

York South—Weston—Etobicoke



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
LPC leaning
York South—Weston—Etobicoke 40% ± 8% LPC 34% ± 8% CPC 18% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 55.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% York South—Weston—Etobicoke 82% LPC 18% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | York South—Weston—Etobicoke

LPC 40% ± 8% CPC 34% ± 8% NDP 18% ± 6% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | York South—Weston—Etobicoke 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 45% CPC 32% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 46% CPC 31% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 47% CPC 31% NDP 16% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 46% CPC 31% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 47% CPC 31% NDP 16% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 47% CPC 30% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 46% CPC 30% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 44% CPC 34% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 44% CPC 33% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 44% CPC 34% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 44% CPC 34% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 44% CPC 34% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 43% CPC 33% NDP 16% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 43% CPC 33% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 44% CPC 33% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 45% CPC 32% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 46% CPC 33% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 45% CPC 33% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 44% CPC 35% NDP 14% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 44% CPC 35% NDP 13% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 43% CPC 35% NDP 15% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 42% CPC 35% NDP 16% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 42% CPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 43% CPC 34% NDP 16% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 43% CPC 33% NDP 16% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 43% CPC 33% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 43% CPC 33% NDP 16% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 44% CPC 32% NDP 16% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 42% CPC 34% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 41% CPC 35% NDP 17% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 40% CPC 34% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 40% CPC 34% NDP 18% GPC 4% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | York South—Weston—Etobicoke

LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | York South—Weston—Etobicoke



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 58.4% 55.6% 40% ± 8% CPC 21.2% 22.5% 34% ± 8% NDP 15.1% 15.1% 18% ± 6% PPC 1.5% 4.9% 3% ± 4% GPC 3.6% 1.9% 4% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.