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Halifax



Latest projection: March 18, 2025
LPC safe
Halifax 55% ± 8%▲ LPC 25% ± 7%▼ NDP 16% ± 5% CPC 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 42.2% 338Canada vote projection | March 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Halifax >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | March 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Halifax

LPC 55% ± 8% CPC 16% ± 5% NDP 25% ± 7% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Halifax 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC March 18, 2025 2024-10-13 LPC 37% NDP 35% CPC 22% GPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 37% NDP 35% CPC 22% GPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 22% GPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 22% GPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 38% NDP 35% CPC 21% GPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 39% NDP 35% CPC 21% GPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 38% NDP 36% CPC 21% GPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 21% GPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 38% LPC 35% CPC 22% GPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 38% LPC 35% CPC 22% GPC 3% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 NDP 39% LPC 33% CPC 24% GPC 3% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 NDP 39% LPC 33% CPC 24% GPC 3% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 NDP 39% LPC 32% CPC 24% GPC 3% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 NDP 37% LPC 34% CPC 24% GPC 3% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 37% LPC 34% CPC 24% GPC 3% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 37% LPC 35% CPC 24% GPC 3% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 23% GPC 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 40% NDP 33% CPC 22% GPC 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 45% NDP 29% CPC 21% GPC 3% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 47% NDP 28% CPC 20% GPC 3% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 45% NDP 33% CPC 17% GPC 3% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 45% NDP 33% CPC 17% GPC 3% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 49% NDP 30% CPC 16% GPC 3% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 55% NDP 25% CPC 16% GPC 3% 2025-03-18 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Halifax

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP March 18, 2025 2024-10-13 LPC 67% NDP 33% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 63% NDP 37% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 58% NDP 42% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 59% NDP 41% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 71% NDP 29% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 76% NDP 24% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 62% NDP 38% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 55% NDP 45% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 68% LPC 32% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 73% LPC 27% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 NDP 84% LPC 16% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 NDP 85% LPC 15% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 NDP 88% LPC 12% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 NDP 67% LPC 32% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 67% LPC 33% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 64% LPC 36% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 54% NDP 46% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 86% NDP 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 99% NDP 1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 97% NDP 3% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 97% NDP 3% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Halifax



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 42.0% 42.2% 55% ± 8% NDP 30.5% 40.3% 25% ± 7% CPC 11.5% 12.7% 16% ± 5% GPC 14.5% 2.2% 3% ± 3% PPC 1.2% 2.1% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.