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Canada

Kitchener Centre


MP: Kelly DeRidder (CPC)

Latest projection: June 29, 2025
Toss up CPC/GPC

Recent electoral history | Kitchener Centre


2019 2021 2025 Proj. GPC 35% ± 9% 25.5% 33.4% 33.6% CPC 33% ± 8% 24.1% 24.8% 34.2% LPC 29% ± 7% 36.7% 17.4% 29.3% NDP 2% ± 2% 11.5% 17.5% 2.0% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.9% 6.6% 0.6%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Kitchener-Centre


Kitchener Centre 35% ± 9%▲ GPC 33% ± 8% CPC 29% ± 7%▼ LPC CPC 2025 34.2% 338Canada vote projection | June 29, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kitchener Centre 56%▲ GPC 38%▼ CPC 7%▼ LPC Odds of winning | June 29, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kitchener Centre

LPC 29% ± 7% CPC 33% ± 8% GPC 35% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener Centre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC GPC June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 GPC 35% CPC 32% LPC 13% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 GPC 35% CPC 31% LPC 14% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 GPC 35% CPC 31% LPC 14% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 GPC 36% CPC 30% LPC 16% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 GPC 35% CPC 29% LPC 18% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 GPC 36% CPC 28% LPC 20% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 GPC 35% CPC 28% LPC 22% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 GPC 35% CPC 28% LPC 23% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 GPC 34% CPC 29% LPC 23% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 GPC 35% CPC 27% LPC 24% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 GPC 35% CPC 27% LPC 26% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 GPC 35% CPC 26% LPC 26% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 GPC 35% CPC 26% LPC 26% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 GPC 35% CPC 27% LPC 26% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 GPC 36% LPC 26% CPC 25% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 GPC 36% LPC 27% CPC 25% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 GPC 34% LPC 29% CPC 26% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 GPC 34% LPC 29% CPC 26% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 GPC 33% LPC 30% CPC 26% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 GPC 33% LPC 31% CPC 26% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 GPC 32% LPC 31% CPC 26% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 GPC 35% LPC 31% CPC 24% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 GPC 35% LPC 31% CPC 25% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 GPC 35% LPC 32% CPC 25% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 GPC 34% LPC 32% CPC 25% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 GPC 34% LPC 33% CPC 24% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 GPC 35% LPC 32% CPC 24% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 GPC 35% LPC 33% CPC 24% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 GPC 35% LPC 33% CPC 24% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 GPC 34% LPC 32% CPC 24% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 GPC 34% LPC 33% CPC 24% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 GPC 35% LPC 33% CPC 24% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 GPC 34% LPC 32% CPC 23% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 GPC 35% LPC 31% CPC 24% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 GPC 36% LPC 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 GPC 36% LPC 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 GPC 36% LPC 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 GPC 36% LPC 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 GPC 36% LPC 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 GPC 36% LPC 30% CPC 23% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 GPC 36% LPC 30% CPC 24% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 GPC 37% LPC 30% CPC 24% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 GPC 37% LPC 30% CPC 23% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 GPC 37% LPC 30% CPC 23% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 GPC 36% LPC 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 GPC 36% LPC 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 GPC 36% LPC 30% CPC 23% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 GPC 36% LPC 30% CPC 23% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 GPC 36% LPC 30% CPC 23% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 GPC 35% LPC 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 GPC 35% LPC 31% CPC 24% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 34% GPC 34% LPC 29% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 34% GPC 34% LPC 29% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 34% GPC 34% LPC 29% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 34% GPC 34% LPC 29% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 34% GPC 34% LPC 29% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 34% GPC 34% LPC 29% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 GPC 34% CPC 33% LPC 29% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 GPC 34% CPC 33% LPC 30% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 GPC 35% CPC 33% LPC 29% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Kitchener Centre

LPC 7% CPC 38% NDP <1% GPC 56% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 GPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 GPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 GPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 GPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 GPC 83% CPC 17% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 GPC 89% CPC 11% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 GPC 88% CPC 11% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 GPC 86% CPC 13% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 GPC 81% CPC 18% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 GPC 88% CPC 11% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 GPC 86% CPC 9% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 GPC 88% CPC 6% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 GPC 88% CPC 6% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 GPC 87% CPC 7% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 GPC 92% LPC 5% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 GPC 91% LPC 6% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 GPC 76% LPC 20% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 GPC 74% LPC 22% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 GPC 68% LPC 28% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 GPC 60% LPC 36% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 GPC 52% LPC 43% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 GPC 73% LPC 27% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 GPC 73% LPC 26% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 GPC 68% LPC 32% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 GPC 60% LPC 39% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 GPC 60% LPC 40% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 GPC 64% LPC 35% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 GPC 60% LPC 39% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 GPC 64% LPC 36% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 GPC 62% LPC 37% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 GPC 61% LPC 38% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 GPC 62% LPC 38% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 GPC 64% LPC 35% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 GPC 77% LPC 22% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 GPC 77% LPC 22% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 GPC 78% LPC 22% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 GPC 79% LPC 20% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 GPC 80% LPC 20% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 GPC 81% LPC 19% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 GPC 82% LPC 18% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 GPC 84% LPC 15% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 GPC 85% LPC 15% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 GPC 85% LPC 15% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 GPC 84% LPC 16% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 GPC 81% LPC 19% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 GPC 82% LPC 18% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 GPC 81% LPC 18% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 GPC 82% LPC 18% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 GPC 83% LPC 17% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 GPC 77% LPC 23% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 GPC 75% LPC 25% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 57% GPC 40% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 57% GPC 41% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 55% GPC 41% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 53% GPC 42% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 49% GPC 43% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 47% GPC 45% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 GPC 50% CPC 41% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 GPC 50% CPC 42% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 GPC 56% CPC 38% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader