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Canada

Kitchener Centre


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
GPC leaning
Kitchener Centre 37% ± 8%▲ GPC 29% ± 7% CPC 17% ± 5% LPC 13% ± 5% NDP 3% ± 4% PPC GPC 2021 33.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kitchener Centre 89%▲ GPC 11%▼ CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kitchener Centre

LPC 17% ± 5% CPC 29% ± 7% NDP 13% ± 5% GPC 37% ± 8% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener Centre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 GPC 39% CPC 28% LPC 17% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 GPC 39% CPC 28% LPC 17% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 GPC 38% CPC 28% LPC 18% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 GPC 39% CPC 27% LPC 17% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 GPC 39% CPC 27% LPC 17% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 GPC 39% CPC 27% LPC 17% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 GPC 39% CPC 27% LPC 17% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 GPC 36% CPC 29% LPC 17% NDP 14% PPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 GPC 36% CPC 29% LPC 17% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 GPC 36% CPC 29% LPC 17% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 GPC 37% CPC 29% LPC 17% NDP 13% PPC 3% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Kitchener Centre

LPC <1% CPC 11% NDP <1% GPC 89% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 GPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 GPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 GPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 GPC 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 GPC 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 GPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 GPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 GPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 GPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 GPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 GPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Kitchener Centre



2019 2021 Proj. GPC 25.5% 33.4% 37% ± 8% CPC 24.1% 24.8% 29% ± 7% NDP 11.5% 17.5% 13% ± 5% LPC 36.7% 17.4% 17% ± 5% PPC 1.9% 6.6% 3% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.