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Kitchener Centre



Latest projection: December 29, 2024
GPC leaning
Kitchener Centre 36% ± 8% GPC 31% ± 7% CPC 17% ± 5% NDP 13% ± 5% LPC 3% ± 4% PPC GPC 2021 33.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kitchener Centre 83%▲ GPC 17%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 29, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kitchener Centre

LPC 13% ± 5% CPC 31% ± 7% NDP 17% ± 5% GPC 36% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener Centre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 GPC 39% CPC 28% LPC 17% NDP 13% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 GPC 39% CPC 28% LPC 17% NDP 13% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 GPC 38% CPC 28% LPC 18% NDP 13% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 GPC 39% CPC 27% LPC 17% NDP 13% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 GPC 39% CPC 27% LPC 17% NDP 13% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 GPC 39% CPC 27% LPC 17% NDP 13% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 GPC 39% CPC 27% LPC 17% NDP 14% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 GPC 36% CPC 29% LPC 17% NDP 14% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 GPC 36% CPC 29% LPC 17% NDP 13% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 GPC 36% CPC 29% LPC 17% NDP 13% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 GPC 37% CPC 29% LPC 17% NDP 13% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 GPC 37% CPC 29% LPC 17% NDP 13% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 GPC 37% CPC 28% LPC 16% NDP 14% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 GPC 38% CPC 28% LPC 16% NDP 14% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 GPC 38% CPC 28% LPC 16% NDP 13% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 GPC 38% CPC 27% LPC 17% NDP 13% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 GPC 39% CPC 28% LPC 17% NDP 12% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 GPC 40% CPC 28% LPC 16% NDP 12% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 GPC 40% CPC 29% LPC 15% NDP 12% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 GPC 40% CPC 30% LPC 15% NDP 11% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 GPC 40% CPC 30% LPC 15% NDP 12% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 GPC 39% CPC 30% LPC 15% NDP 12% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 GPC 39% CPC 29% LPC 15% NDP 12% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 GPC 40% CPC 29% LPC 15% NDP 12% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 GPC 40% CPC 29% LPC 15% NDP 12% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 GPC 40% CPC 28% LPC 15% NDP 12% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 GPC 38% CPC 28% LPC 15% NDP 14% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 GPC 39% CPC 28% LPC 15% NDP 14% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 GPC 38% CPC 29% LPC 15% NDP 14% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 GPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 15% LPC 14% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 GPC 37% CPC 29% NDP 15% LPC 14% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 GPC 37% CPC 29% NDP 16% LPC 14% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 GPC 36% CPC 31% NDP 17% LPC 13% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 GPC 36% CPC 31% NDP 17% LPC 13% 2024-12-29

Odds of winning | Kitchener Centre

LPC <1% CPC 17% NDP <1% GPC 83% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 GPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 GPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 GPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 GPC 97% CPC 3% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 GPC 98% CPC 2% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 GPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 GPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 GPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 GPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 GPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 GPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 GPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 GPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 GPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 GPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 GPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 GPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 GPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 GPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 GPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 GPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 GPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 GPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 GPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 GPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 GPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 GPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 GPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 GPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 GPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 GPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 GPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 GPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 GPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-29

Recent electoral history | Kitchener Centre



2019 2021 Proj. GPC 25.5% 33.4% 36% ± 8% CPC 24.1% 24.8% 31% ± 7% NDP 11.5% 17.5% 17% ± 5% LPC 36.7% 17.4% 13% ± 5% PPC 1.9% 6.6% 3% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.