logo
logo
Canada

Kitchener Centre


MP elect: Kelly DeRidder (CPC)

Latest projection: May 18, 2025
Toss up CPC/GPC

Candidates | Kitchener Centre


Liberal Brian Adeba
Conservative Kelly DeRidder
NDP Heather Zaleski
Green Mike Morrice*
PPC Wasai Rahimi
United Margaretha Dyck
Animal Protection Ellen Papenburg

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Kitchener Centre 34% ± 5% CPC 34% ± 5% GPC 29% ± 5% LPC CPC 2025 34.3% 338Canada vote projection | May 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kitchener Centre 55%▼ CPC 41% GPC 4%▲ LPC Odds of winning | May 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kitchener Centre

LPC 29% ± 5% CPC 34% ± 5% GPC 34% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener Centre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC GPC May 18, 2025 2025-01-12 GPC 35% CPC 32% LPC 13% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 GPC 35% CPC 31% LPC 14% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 GPC 35% CPC 31% LPC 14% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 GPC 36% CPC 30% LPC 16% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 GPC 35% CPC 29% LPC 18% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 GPC 36% CPC 28% LPC 20% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 GPC 35% CPC 28% LPC 22% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 GPC 35% CPC 28% LPC 23% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 GPC 34% CPC 29% LPC 23% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 GPC 35% CPC 27% LPC 24% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 GPC 35% CPC 27% LPC 26% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 GPC 35% CPC 26% LPC 26% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 GPC 35% CPC 26% LPC 26% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 GPC 35% CPC 27% LPC 26% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 GPC 36% LPC 26% CPC 25% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 GPC 36% LPC 27% CPC 25% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 GPC 34% LPC 29% CPC 26% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 GPC 34% LPC 29% CPC 26% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 GPC 33% LPC 30% CPC 26% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 GPC 33% LPC 31% CPC 26% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 GPC 32% LPC 31% CPC 26% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 GPC 35% LPC 31% CPC 24% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 GPC 35% LPC 31% CPC 25% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 GPC 35% LPC 32% CPC 25% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 GPC 34% LPC 32% CPC 25% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 GPC 34% LPC 33% CPC 24% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 GPC 35% LPC 32% CPC 24% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 GPC 35% LPC 33% CPC 24% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 GPC 35% LPC 33% CPC 24% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 GPC 34% LPC 32% CPC 24% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 GPC 34% LPC 33% CPC 24% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 GPC 35% LPC 33% CPC 24% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 GPC 34% LPC 32% CPC 23% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 GPC 35% LPC 31% CPC 24% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 GPC 36% LPC 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 GPC 36% LPC 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 GPC 36% LPC 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 GPC 36% LPC 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 GPC 36% LPC 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 GPC 36% LPC 30% CPC 23% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 GPC 36% LPC 30% CPC 24% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 GPC 37% LPC 30% CPC 24% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 GPC 37% LPC 30% CPC 23% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 GPC 37% LPC 30% CPC 23% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 GPC 36% LPC 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 GPC 36% LPC 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 GPC 36% LPC 30% CPC 23% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 GPC 36% LPC 30% CPC 23% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 GPC 36% LPC 30% CPC 23% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 GPC 35% LPC 31% CPC 23% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 GPC 35% LPC 31% CPC 24% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 34% GPC 34% LPC 29% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 34% GPC 34% LPC 29% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 34% GPC 34% LPC 29% 2025-05-18 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Kitchener Centre

LPC 4% CPC 55% NDP <1% GPC 41% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC May 18, 2025 2025-01-12 GPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 GPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 GPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 GPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 GPC 83% CPC 17% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 GPC 89% CPC 11% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 GPC 88% CPC 11% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 GPC 86% CPC 13% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 GPC 81% CPC 18% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 GPC 88% CPC 11% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 GPC 86% CPC 9% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 GPC 88% CPC 6% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 GPC 88% CPC 6% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 GPC 87% CPC 7% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 GPC 92% LPC 5% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 GPC 91% LPC 6% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 GPC 76% LPC 20% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 GPC 74% LPC 22% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 GPC 68% LPC 28% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 GPC 60% LPC 36% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 GPC 52% LPC 43% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 GPC 73% LPC 27% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 GPC 73% LPC 26% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 GPC 68% LPC 32% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 GPC 60% LPC 39% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 GPC 60% LPC 40% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 GPC 64% LPC 35% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 GPC 60% LPC 39% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 GPC 64% LPC 36% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 GPC 62% LPC 37% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 GPC 61% LPC 38% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 GPC 62% LPC 38% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 GPC 64% LPC 35% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 GPC 77% LPC 22% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 GPC 77% LPC 22% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 GPC 78% LPC 22% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 GPC 79% LPC 20% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 GPC 80% LPC 20% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 GPC 81% LPC 19% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 GPC 82% LPC 18% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 GPC 84% LPC 15% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 GPC 85% LPC 15% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 GPC 85% LPC 15% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 GPC 84% LPC 16% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 GPC 81% LPC 19% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 GPC 82% LPC 18% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 GPC 81% LPC 18% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 GPC 82% LPC 18% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 GPC 83% LPC 17% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 GPC 77% LPC 23% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 GPC 75% LPC 25% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 57% GPC 40% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 57% GPC 41% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 55% GPC 41% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Kitchener Centre



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 34% ± 5% 24.1% 24.8% 34.3% GPC 34% ± 5% 25.5% 33.4% 33.6% LPC 29% ± 5% 36.7% 17.4% 29.2% NDP 2% ± 1% 11.5% 17.5% 2.0% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.9% 6.6% 0.6% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.