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Recent electoral history | Kitchener Centre


2019 2021 2025 Projection GPC 41% ± 9% 25.5% 33.4% 33.6% CPC 30% ± 7% 24.1% 24.8% 34.2% LPC 22% ± 6% 36.7% 17.4% 29.3% NDP 6% ± 4% 11.5% 17.5% 2.0% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.9% 6.6% 0.6%

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338Canada Kitchener Centre projection

Latest update: January 18, 2026

Kitchener Centre 32% 50% 41% ± 9% GPC 23% 37% 30% ± 7% CPC 16% 28% 22% ± 6% LPC 2% 9% 6% ± 4% NDP CPC 2025 34.2% 338Canada vote projection | January 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kitchener Centre 95%▲ GPC 5%▼ CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | January 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Kitchener Centre

LPC 22% ± 6% CPC 30% ± 7% NDP 6% ± 4% GPC 41% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener Centre 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND January 18, 2026 2025-04-26 GPC 36% LPC 30% CPC 23% NDP 7% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 GPC 35% LPC 31% CPC 23% NDP 7% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 GPC 35% LPC 31% CPC 24% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 34% GPC 34% LPC 29% NDP 2% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 34% GPC 34% LPC 29% NDP 2% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 34% GPC 34% LPC 29% NDP 2% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 34% GPC 34% LPC 29% NDP 2% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 34% GPC 34% LPC 29% NDP 2% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 34% GPC 34% LPC 29% NDP 2% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 GPC 34% CPC 33% LPC 29% NDP 2% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 GPC 34% CPC 33% LPC 30% NDP 2% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 GPC 35% CPC 33% LPC 29% NDP 2% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 GPC 36% CPC 33% LPC 29% NDP 2% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 GPC 36% CPC 32% LPC 29% NDP 2% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 GPC 36% CPC 32% LPC 29% NDP 2% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 GPC 37% CPC 32% LPC 28% NDP 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 GPC 37% CPC 31% LPC 28% NDP 2% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 GPC 38% CPC 31% LPC 28% NDP 2% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 GPC 38% CPC 30% LPC 28% NDP 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 GPC 38% CPC 31% LPC 27% NDP 3% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 GPC 39% CPC 31% LPC 27% NDP 3% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 GPC 39% CPC 31% LPC 26% NDP 3% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 GPC 40% CPC 30% LPC 26% NDP 3% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 GPC 38% CPC 33% LPC 26% NDP 3% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 GPC 38% CPC 33% LPC 25% NDP 3% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 GPC 38% CPC 34% LPC 25% NDP 3% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 GPC 36% CPC 35% LPC 26% NDP 3% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 GPC 36% CPC 35% LPC 26% NDP 3% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 GPC 36% CPC 34% LPC 26% NDP 3% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 GPC 36% CPC 34% LPC 26% NDP 3% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 GPC 37% CPC 34% LPC 26% NDP 3% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 GPC 37% CPC 34% LPC 26% NDP 3% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 GPC 37% CPC 34% LPC 25% NDP 3% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 GPC 37% CPC 34% LPC 25% NDP 3% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 GPC 38% CPC 32% LPC 26% NDP 3% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 GPC 38% CPC 32% LPC 26% NDP 3% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 GPC 39% CPC 32% LPC 25% NDP 3% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 GPC 40% CPC 31% LPC 23% NDP 6% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 GPC 40% CPC 31% LPC 23% NDP 6% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 GPC 40% CPC 31% LPC 22% NDP 6% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 GPC 41% CPC 30% LPC 22% NDP 6% 2026-01-18

Odds of winning | Kitchener Centre

LPC <1% CPC 5% NDP <1% GPC 95% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC January 18, 2026 2025-04-26 GPC 83% LPC 17% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 GPC 77% LPC 23% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 GPC 75% LPC 25% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 57% GPC 40% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 57% GPC 41% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 55% GPC 41% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 53% GPC 42% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 49% GPC 43% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 47% GPC 45% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 GPC 50% CPC 41% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 GPC 50% CPC 42% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 GPC 56% CPC 38% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 GPC 64% CPC 31% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 GPC 68% CPC 25% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 GPC 72% CPC 22% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 GPC 76% CPC 19% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 GPC 78% CPC 17% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 GPC 84% CPC 12% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 GPC 86% CPC 10% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 GPC 85% CPC 13% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 GPC 87% CPC 11% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 GPC 90% CPC 9% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 GPC 93% CPC 6% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 GPC 77% CPC 22% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 GPC 76% CPC 24% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 GPC 76% CPC 24% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 GPC 58% CPC 42% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 GPC 59% CPC 41% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 GPC 62% CPC 38% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 GPC 64% CPC 35% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 GPC 69% CPC 30% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 GPC 69% CPC 30% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 GPC 72% CPC 28% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 GPC 71% CPC 29% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 GPC 79% CPC 20% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 GPC 82% CPC 17% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 GPC 85% CPC 14% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 GPC 92% CPC 8% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 GPC 92% CPC 8% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 GPC 93% CPC 7% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 GPC 95% CPC 5% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-18


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Demographic data | Kitchener Centre

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 84.5% English 1.4% Serbo-Croatian 1.3% Arabic 1.2% Spanish 0.7% Punjabi 0.6% Portuguese 0.6% MandarinKitchener CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 11.3% No diploma 25.0% High school 5.7% Trade 22.5% College / Cégep 1.8% Some university 21.9% Bachelor's 11.8% PostgraduateKitchener CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 74.7% Not visible minority 25.3% Visible minority 7.8% Black 5.8% South Asian 2.4% Latin American 2.0% Southeast Asian 1.8% Arab 1.7% ChineseKitchener CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 35.5% No Religion 22.1% Catholic 9.1% Christian (n.o.s.) 5.7% Muslim 4.3% Orthodox 3.6% Lutheran 2.8% United Church 2.6% HinduKitchener CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 51.7% Owner 48.3% RenterKitchener CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 58.3% Employed 34.4% Not in labour force 7.3% UnemployedKitchener CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 97.6% Non-Indigenous 2.4% Indigenous identity 1.4% First Nations 0.9% Metis 0.1% Others 0.1% MultipleKitchener CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 86.2% Car / truck / van 6.2% Public transit 4.4% Walking 2.2% Other 0.9% BicycleKitchener CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.