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Canada

Central Newfoundland



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Candidates | Central Newfoundland


Liberal Lynette Powell
Conservative Clifford Small*
NDP Darian Vincent

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Central Newfoundland 49% ± 9% LPC 47% ± 9% CPC 4% ± 3% NDP CPC 2021 46.9% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Central Newfoundland 64%▲ LPC 36%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Central Newfoundland

LPC 49% ± 9% CPC 47% ± 9% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Central Newfoundland 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 46% CPC 45% NDP 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 50% CPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 51% CPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 51% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 51% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 51% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 51% CPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 54% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 54% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 54% CPC 40% NDP 4% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 50% CPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 50% CPC 45% NDP 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 51% CPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 51% CPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 51% CPC 44% NDP 4% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 49% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 51% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 50% CPC 46% NDP 4% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 4% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Central Newfoundland

LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Central Newfoundland



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 48.3% 46.0% 49% ± 9% CPC 35.3% 46.9% 47% ± 9% NDP 12.4% 7.1% 4% ± 3% GPC 4.0% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.