logo
Canada


Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame (federal)


MP: Clifford Small (CPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

CPC safe hold
Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame 55% ± 8%▼ 36% ± 8% 8% ± 4% CPC 2021 46.86% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame

LPC 36% ± 8% CPC 55% ± 8% NDP 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP

Odds of winning | Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 18.3% 35.3% 46.86% 55% ± 8% LPC 74.8% 48.3% 46.04% 36% ± 8% NDP 6.1% 12.4% 7.1% 8% ± 4% GPC 0.8% 4.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%