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Canada

Central Newfoundland


MP elect: Clifford Small (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Central Newfoundland


Liberal Lynette Powell
Conservative Clifford Small*
NDP Darian Vincent

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Central Newfoundland 54% ± 0%▲ CPC 44% ± 0%▼ LPC CPC 2025 54.1% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Central Newfoundland 98%▲ CPC 2%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Central Newfoundland

LPC 44% ± 0% CPC 54% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Central Newfoundland 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 54% CPC 40% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 54% CPC 40% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 50% CPC 44% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 50% CPC 44% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 51% CPC 44% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 51% CPC 44% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 51% CPC 44% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 49% CPC 46% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 51% CPC 46% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 48% CPC 48% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 48% CPC 48% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 48% LPC 48% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 49% LPC 47% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 49% LPC 47% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 48% LPC 47% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 48% LPC 48% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 48% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 54% LPC 44% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Central Newfoundland

LPC 2% CPC 98% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Central Newfoundland



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 54% ± 0% 35.3% 46.9% 54.1% LPC 44% ± 0% 48.3% 46.0% 43.5% NDP 2% ± 0% 12.4% 7.1% 2.4% GPC 0% ± 0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.