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Canada

Central Newfoundland


MP elect: Clifford Small (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Central Newfoundland


Liberal Lynette Powell
Conservative Clifford Small*
NDP Darian Vincent

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Central Newfoundland 54% ± 7% CPC 44% ± 7% LPC CPC 2025 54.1% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Central Newfoundland 95%▼ CPC 5%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Central Newfoundland

LPC 44% ± 7% CPC 54% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Central Newfoundland 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 60% LPC 30% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 59% LPC 30% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 59% LPC 31% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 58% LPC 32% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 55% LPC 35% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 53% LPC 39% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 46% LPC 46% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 46% CPC 45% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 48% CPC 43% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 50% CPC 42% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 51% CPC 42% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 51% CPC 41% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 54% CPC 39% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 53% CPC 40% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 54% CPC 40% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 54% CPC 40% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 50% CPC 44% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 50% CPC 44% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 50% CPC 45% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 51% CPC 44% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 51% CPC 44% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 51% CPC 44% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 49% CPC 46% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 51% CPC 46% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 50% CPC 46% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 49% CPC 47% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 48% CPC 48% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 48% CPC 48% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 48% LPC 48% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 49% LPC 47% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 49% LPC 47% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 48% LPC 47% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 48% LPC 48% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 48% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 54% LPC 44% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 54% LPC 44% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 54% LPC 44% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 54% LPC 44% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Central Newfoundland

LPC 5% CPC 95% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 76% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 73% CPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 60% LPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Central Newfoundland



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 54% ± 7% 35.3% 46.9% 54.1% LPC 44% ± 7% 48.3% 46.0% 43.5% NDP 2% ± 2% 12.4% 7.1% 2.4% GPC 0% ± 0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.