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Canada

Markham—Thornhill



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
LPC likely
Markham—Thornhill 46% ± 8% LPC 37% ± 8% CPC 11% ± 4% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 61.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Markham—Thornhill 90%▼ LPC 10%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Markham—Thornhill

LPC 46% ± 8% CPC 37% ± 8% NDP 11% ± 4% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Markham—Thornhill 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 50% CPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 50% CPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 51% CPC 35% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 51% CPC 35% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 51% CPC 35% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 52% CPC 34% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 50% CPC 34% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 50% CPC 34% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 50% CPC 34% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 51% CPC 33% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 51% CPC 33% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 50% CPC 34% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 50% CPC 35% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 48% CPC 37% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 47% CPC 37% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 48% CPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 48% CPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 48% CPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 48% CPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 49% CPC 35% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 50% CPC 34% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 48% CPC 36% NDP 10% GPC 4% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 47% CPC 37% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 46% CPC 37% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 46% CPC 37% NDP 11% GPC 4% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Markham—Thornhill

LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Markham—Thornhill



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 53.8% 61.5% 46% ± 8% CPC 33.7% 26.4% 37% ± 8% NDP 7.3% 8.4% 11% ± 4% GPC 2.6% 2.0% 4% ± 3% PPC 0.8% 1.7% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.