logo
Canada

Markham—Thornhill


MP elect: Tim Hodgson (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | Markham—Thornhill


Liberal Tim Hodgson
Conservative Lionel Loganathan
NDP Aftab Qureshi
PPC Mimi Lee
Centrist Haider Qureshi

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Markham—Thornhill 54% ± 0%▼ LPC 42% ± 0%▲ CPC LPC 2025 54.3% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Markham—Thornhill >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Markham—Thornhill

LPC 54% ± 0% CPC 42% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Markham—Thornhill 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 58% CPC 31% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 59% CPC 30% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 61% CPC 29% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 61% CPC 28% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 62% CPC 28% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 61% CPC 28% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 62% CPC 28% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 62% CPC 28% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 63% CPC 28% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 62% CPC 29% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 63% CPC 28% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 64% CPC 28% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 64% CPC 28% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 64% CPC 28% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 64% CPC 29% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 65% CPC 29% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 66% CPC 28% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 65% CPC 29% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 65% CPC 29% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 65% CPC 29% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 65% CPC 29% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 65% CPC 29% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 65% CPC 29% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 65% CPC 29% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 64% CPC 28% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 64% CPC 28% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 64% CPC 28% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 64% CPC 28% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 64% CPC 28% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 66% CPC 28% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 66% CPC 28% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 65% CPC 28% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 64% CPC 29% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 60% CPC 34% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 60% CPC 34% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 60% CPC 33% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 61% CPC 32% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 61% CPC 33% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 61% CPC 33% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 61% CPC 33% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 61% CPC 33% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 61% CPC 33% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 61% CPC 33% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 54% CPC 42% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Markham—Thornhill

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Markham—Thornhill



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 54% ± 0% 53.8% 61.5% 54.3% CPC 42% ± 0% 33.7% 26.4% 41.9% NDP 2% ± 0% 7.3% 8.4% 2.0% PPC 2% ± 0% 0.8% 1.7% 1.5% IND 0% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 2.6% 2.0% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.