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Canada

Kildonan—St. Paul


MP elect: Raquel Dancho (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC leaning

Candidates | Kildonan—St. Paul


Liberal Thomas Naaykens
Conservative Raquel Dancho*
NDP Emily Clark
PPC Erik Holmes

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Kildonan—St. Paul 48% ± 0%▲ CPC 45% ± 0%▼ LPC 7% ± 0%▼ NDP CPC 2025 47.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kildonan—St. Paul 75%▲ CPC 25%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kildonan—St. Paul

LPC 45% ± 0% CPC 48% ± 0% NDP 7% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Kildonan—St. Paul 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 46% LPC 32% NDP 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 43% LPC 35% NDP 15% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 43% LPC 41% NDP 11% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 43% LPC 42% NDP 11% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 42% LPC 42% NDP 11% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 43% LPC 42% NDP 11% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 43% LPC 42% NDP 11% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 43% LPC 42% NDP 11% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 43% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 43% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 43% CPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 43% CPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 43% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 43% LPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 44% LPC 42% NDP 10% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 44% LPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 43% CPC 43% NDP 9% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 44% LPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 44% LPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 44% CPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 44% CPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 44% CPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 45% CPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 46% CPC 43% NDP 10% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 45% LPC 44% NDP 10% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 9% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 48% LPC 45% NDP 7% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Kildonan—St. Paul

LPC 25% CPC 75% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 53% CPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 50% LPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 64% LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 59% LPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 58% LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 56% LPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 52% CPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 52% LPC 48% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 55% LPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 53% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 51% LPC 49% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Kildonan—St. Paul



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 48% ± 0% 45.4% 42.4% 47.6% LPC 45% ± 0% 26.4% 27.9% 44.6% NDP 7% ± 0% 22.0% 23.8% 6.9% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.2% 5.4% 0.9% GPC 0% ± 0% 4.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.