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Canada


Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa (federal)


MP: Dan Mazier (CPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

CPC safe hold
Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa 63% ± 7%▲ 19% ± 5% 9% ± 4%▼ 3% ± 3% 3% ± 3% CPC 2021 59.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa

LPC 9% ± 4% CPC 63% ± 7% NDP 19% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP

Odds of winning | Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 46.3% 64.3% 59.0% 63% ± 7% NDP 12.3% 14.1% 14.77% 19% ± 5% LPC 29.5% 13.2% 12.46% 9% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 1.8% 10.52% 3% ± 3% GPC 3.8% 5.5% 2.19% 3% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% MAV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%