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Canada

Niagara West


MP elect: Dean Allison (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Niagara West


Liberal Jennifer Korstanje
Conservative Dean Allison*
NDP Justin Abando
PPC Ryan Anderson
Christian Heritage Dave Bylsma

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Niagara West 52% ± 0%▲ CPC 43% ± 0%▲ LPC 3% ± 0%▼ NDP CPC 2025 52.0% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Niagara West 99%▲ CPC 1%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Niagara West

LPC 43% ± 0% CPC 52% ± 0% NDP 3% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Niagara West 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 51% LPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 50% LPC 30% NDP 10% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 48% LPC 33% NDP 9% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 48% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 48% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 48% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 48% LPC 34% NDP 9% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 48% LPC 36% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 47% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 47% LPC 37% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 48% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 48% LPC 38% NDP 7% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 49% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 48% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 48% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 48% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 48% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 48% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 48% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 48% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 47% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 48% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 50% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 50% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 52% LPC 43% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Niagara West

LPC 1% CPC 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Niagara West



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 52% ± 0% 43.6% 44.0% 52.0% LPC 43% ± 0% 33.0% 31.1% 42.9% NDP 3% ± 0% 13.6% 14.0% 3.2% IND 1% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.6% 7.1% 0.8% GPC 0% ± 0% 6.6% 2.8% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.