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Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
BQ likely
Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation 39% ± 7% BQ 28% ± 6% LPC 18% ± 5% CPC 9% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 39.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation 98% BQ 2% LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation

LPC 28% ± 6% CPC 18% ± 5% NDP 9% ± 4% BQ 39% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 37% LPC 31% CPC 19% NDP 7% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 40% LPC 30% CPC 18% NDP 7% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 39% LPC 31% CPC 18% NDP 7% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 36% LPC 32% CPC 19% NDP 7% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 36% LPC 32% CPC 19% NDP 8% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 35% LPC 33% CPC 20% NDP 8% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 37% LPC 31% CPC 19% NDP 8% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 37% LPC 30% CPC 19% NDP 8% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 38% LPC 30% CPC 18% NDP 8% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 37% LPC 30% CPC 18% NDP 8% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 37% LPC 30% CPC 18% NDP 8% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 37% LPC 30% CPC 18% NDP 8% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 37% LPC 32% CPC 18% NDP 8% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 36% LPC 32% CPC 18% NDP 8% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 36% LPC 31% CPC 19% NDP 8% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 35% LPC 32% CPC 18% NDP 8% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 34% LPC 33% CPC 18% NDP 8% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 35% LPC 33% CPC 18% NDP 8% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 36% LPC 32% CPC 18% NDP 8% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 36% LPC 32% CPC 18% NDP 8% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 36% LPC 30% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 37% LPC 30% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 37% LPC 31% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 37% LPC 31% CPC 17% NDP 9% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 37% LPC 31% CPC 17% NDP 9% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 37% LPC 31% CPC 17% NDP 9% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 38% LPC 31% CPC 17% NDP 8% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 38% LPC 30% CPC 18% NDP 8% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 38% LPC 29% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 38% LPC 29% CPC 19% NDP 9% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 39% LPC 28% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 39% LPC 28% CPC 18% NDP 9% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation

LPC 2% NDP <1% BQ 98% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 39.7% 39.2% 28% ± 6% BQ 33.4% 32.8% 39% ± 7% CPC 12.6% 13.5% 18% ± 5% NDP 8.1% 7.1% 9% ± 4% PPC 1.4% 5.8% 3% ± 4% GPC 4.7% 0.4% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.