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Canada

King—Vaughan


MP elect: Anna Roberts (CPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
CPC safe

Candidates | King—Vaughan


Liberal Mubarak Ahmed
Conservative Anna Roberts*
NDP Samantha Sanchez
Green Ann Raney
PPC Vageesh Sabharwal

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



King—Vaughan 62% ± 0%▲ CPC 36% ± 0%▼ LPC CPC 2025 61.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% King—Vaughan >99%▲ CPC <1%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | King—Vaughan

LPC 36% ± 0% CPC 62% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | King—Vaughan 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 52% LPC 37% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 51% LPC 38% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 49% LPC 40% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 49% LPC 41% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 49% LPC 42% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 49% LPC 42% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 48% LPC 43% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 48% LPC 43% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 48% LPC 44% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 48% LPC 44% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 48% LPC 45% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 48% LPC 45% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 48% LPC 44% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 48% LPC 45% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 48% LPC 46% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 49% LPC 45% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 49% LPC 45% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 49% LPC 45% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 49% LPC 45% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 50% LPC 45% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 50% LPC 45% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 49% LPC 45% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 49% LPC 45% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 49% LPC 45% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 49% LPC 46% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 49% LPC 46% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 49% LPC 45% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 49% LPC 46% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 49% LPC 46% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 49% LPC 45% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 50% LPC 44% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 52% LPC 43% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 52% LPC 43% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 51% LPC 43% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 50% LPC 44% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 50% LPC 44% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 51% LPC 44% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 51% LPC 43% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 51% LPC 43% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 51% LPC 43% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 52% LPC 43% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 62% LPC 36% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | King—Vaughan

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 65% LPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 73% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 69% LPC 31% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 74% LPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 70% LPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 71% LPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 68% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 66% LPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 72% LPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 78% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 80% LPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 84% LPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 83% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | King—Vaughan



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 62% ± 0% 42.2% 44.9% 61.8% LPC 36% ± 0% 45.5% 42.9% 35.6% NDP 1% ± 0% 6.9% 6.6% 1.1% GPC 1% ± 0% 4.2% 1.3% 0.9% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.2% 4.4% 0.6%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.