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Canada


Kitchener South–Hespeler (federal)


MP: Valerie Bradford (LPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

CPC likely gain
Kitchener South–Hespeler 41% ± 7%▼ 31% ± 7%▲ 17% ± 5% 7% ± 4% 4% ± 4% LPC 2021 37.45% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Kitchener South–Hespeler 97%▼ 3%▲ <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kitchener South–Hespeler

LPC 31% ± 7% CPC 41% ± 7% NDP 17% ± 5% GPC 7% ± 4% PPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener South–Hespeler 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Odds of winning | Kitchener South–Hespeler

LPC 3% CPC 97% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Kitchener South–Hespeler



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 42.3% 40.2% 37.45% 31% ± 7% CPC 36.7% 33.5% 35.54% 41% ± 7% NDP 15.6% 13.3% 16.27% 17% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.9% 6.75% 4% ± 4% GPC 3.7% 10.9% 3.44% 7% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.24% 0% ± 0%