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Canada

Carleton


MP: Bruce Fanjoy (LPC)

Latest projection: June 29, 2025
LPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Carleton


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 52% ± 8% 35.1% 31.9% 50.9% CPC 45% ± 8% 48.8% 51.9% 45.7% NDP 2% ± 1% 9.3% 11.4% 1.4% GPC 1% ± 1% 5.5% 2.1% 0.7% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.3% 2.8% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Carleton


Carleton 52% ± 8% LPC 45% ± 8%▲ CPC LPC 2025 50.9% 338Canada vote projection | June 29, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Carleton 85%▼ LPC 15%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 29, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Carleton

LPC 52% ± 8% CPC 45% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Carleton 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 66% LPC 16% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 65% LPC 17% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 65% LPC 17% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 62% LPC 21% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 60% LPC 23% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 59% LPC 26% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 57% LPC 27% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 56% LPC 29% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 56% LPC 28% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 55% LPC 30% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 54% LPC 32% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 53% LPC 33% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 53% LPC 33% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 53% LPC 33% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 53% LPC 33% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 53% LPC 33% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 53% LPC 35% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 53% LPC 36% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 52% LPC 36% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 50% LPC 37% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 50% LPC 38% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 50% LPC 38% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 51% LPC 38% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 51% LPC 38% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 51% LPC 39% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 51% LPC 39% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 51% LPC 39% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 50% LPC 42% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 50% LPC 42% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 51% CPC 47% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 51% CPC 47% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 51% CPC 47% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 51% CPC 46% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 51% CPC 46% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 51% CPC 45% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 52% CPC 45% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 52% CPC 44% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 52% CPC 45% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Carleton

LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader