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Canada

Carleton


MP elect: Bruce Fanjoy (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC leaning

Candidates | Carleton


Liberal Bruce Fanjoy
Conservative Pierre Poilievre *
NDP Beth Prokaska
Green Mark Watson
Rhinoceros Sebastien CoRhino
Canadian Future Shawn MacEachern
United Karen Bourdeau
Marijuana Danny Legare
Independent Longest ballot committee

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Carleton 51% ± 6% LPC 46% ± 6%▼ CPC LPC 2025 50.9% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Carleton 85%▲ LPC 15%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Carleton

LPC 51% ± 6% CPC 46% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Carleton 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 66% LPC 16% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 65% LPC 17% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 65% LPC 17% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 62% LPC 21% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 60% LPC 23% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 59% LPC 26% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 57% LPC 27% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 56% LPC 29% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 56% LPC 28% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 55% LPC 30% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 54% LPC 32% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 53% LPC 33% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 53% LPC 33% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 53% LPC 33% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 53% LPC 33% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 53% LPC 33% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 53% LPC 35% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 53% LPC 36% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 52% LPC 36% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 50% LPC 37% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 50% LPC 38% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 50% LPC 38% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 51% LPC 38% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 51% LPC 38% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 51% LPC 39% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 51% LPC 39% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 51% LPC 39% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 51% LPC 40% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 50% LPC 41% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 50% LPC 40% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 50% LPC 42% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 50% LPC 42% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 51% CPC 47% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 51% CPC 47% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 51% CPC 47% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 51% CPC 46% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Carleton

LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 85% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Carleton



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 51% ± 6% 35.1% 31.9% 50.9% CPC 46% ± 6% 48.8% 51.9% 45.7% NDP 1% ± 1% 9.3% 11.4% 1.4% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% GPC 1% ± 1% 5.5% 2.1% 0.7% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.3% 2.8% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.