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Carleton



Latest projection: April 16, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Carleton


Liberal Bruce Fanjoy
Conservative Pierre Poilievre *
NDP Beth Prokaska
Green Mark Watson
Rhinoceros Sebastien CoRhino
Canadian Future Shawn MacEachern
United Karen Bourdeau
Marijuana Danny Legare
Independent Longest ballot committee

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Carleton 50% ± 8% CPC 41% ± 8% LPC 5% ± 4% NDP CPC 2021 51.9% 338Canada vote projection | April 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Carleton 92%▲ CPC 8%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Carleton

LPC 41% ± 8% CPC 50% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Carleton 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 16, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 56% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 55% LPC 30% NDP 8% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 54% LPC 32% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 53% LPC 33% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 53% LPC 33% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 53% LPC 33% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 53% LPC 33% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 53% LPC 33% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 53% LPC 35% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 53% LPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 52% LPC 36% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 50% LPC 37% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 50% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 51% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 51% LPC 38% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 51% LPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 51% LPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 51% LPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 50% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 50% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 50% LPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 50% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 50% LPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Carleton

LPC 8% CPC 92% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 16, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Carleton



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 48.8% 51.9% 50% ± 8% LPC 35.1% 31.9% 41% ± 8% NDP 9.3% 11.4% 5% ± 4% GPC 5.5% 2.1% 2% ± 2% PPC 1.3% 2.8% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.