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Canada

Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound


MP elect: Alex Ruff (CPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound


Liberal Anne Marie Reid-Watson
Conservative Alex Ruff*
NDP Chris Neudorf
Green Natasha Akiwenzie
PPC Pavel Smolko
United Ann Gillies

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound 53% ± 6%▲ CPC 40% ± 6%▲ LPC 3% ± 2% NDP CPC 2025 53.0% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound 99%▼ CPC 1%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

LPC 40% ± 6% CPC 53% ± 6% NDP 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 66% NDP 14% LPC 9% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 65% NDP 13% LPC 10% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 65% NDP 13% LPC 10% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 62% LPC 14% NDP 13% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 61% LPC 16% NDP 12% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 60% LPC 18% NDP 10% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 59% LPC 19% NDP 10% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 59% LPC 20% NDP 10% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 59% LPC 20% NDP 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 58% LPC 21% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 57% LPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 57% LPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 56% LPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 57% LPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 56% LPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 57% LPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 56% LPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 56% LPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 56% LPC 27% NDP 7% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 56% LPC 28% NDP 7% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 56% LPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 56% LPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 57% LPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 58% LPC 29% NDP 6% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 58% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 58% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 58% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 58% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 58% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 58% LPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 58% LPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 58% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 57% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 57% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 57% LPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 57% LPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 58% LPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 57% LPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 58% LPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 57% LPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 57% LPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 57% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 56% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 57% LPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 58% LPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 52% LPC 39% NDP 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 53% LPC 40% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

LPC 1% CPC 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound



2019 2021 2025 Proj. CPC 53% ± 6% 46.1% 49.2% 53.0% LPC 40% ± 6% 30.1% 25.2% 40.1% NDP 3% ± 2% 11.7% 13.6% 3.1% GPC 2% ± 2% 8.8% 3.1% 2.2% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 1% ± 1% 2.8% 8.0% 0.8%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.