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Canada

Berthier—Maskinongé



Latest projection: December 29, 2024
BQ likely
Berthier—Maskinongé 40% ± 7% BQ 32% ± 7% NDP 15% ± 5% CPC 8% ± 4% LPC BQ 2021 35.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Berthier—Maskinongé 93%▲ BQ 7%▼ NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 29, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Berthier—Maskinongé

LPC 8% ± 4% CPC 15% ± 5% NDP 32% ± 7% BQ 40% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Berthier—Maskinongé 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 39% NDP 31% CPC 15% LPC 10% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 41% NDP 31% CPC 14% LPC 10% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 40% NDP 31% CPC 14% LPC 10% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 38% NDP 32% CPC 15% LPC 10% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 37% NDP 32% CPC 15% LPC 10% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 37% NDP 32% CPC 16% LPC 11% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 39% NDP 32% CPC 15% LPC 10% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 39% NDP 32% CPC 15% LPC 9% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 39% NDP 31% CPC 14% LPC 9% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 39% NDP 31% CPC 14% LPC 10% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 39% NDP 31% CPC 14% LPC 10% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 39% NDP 31% CPC 14% LPC 10% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 39% NDP 31% CPC 14% LPC 10% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 38% NDP 31% CPC 14% LPC 10% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 38% NDP 32% CPC 14% LPC 10% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 38% NDP 32% CPC 14% LPC 10% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 37% NDP 32% CPC 14% LPC 11% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 37% NDP 33% CPC 14% LPC 10% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 38% NDP 32% CPC 14% LPC 10% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 38% NDP 32% CPC 14% LPC 10% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 38% NDP 33% CPC 13% LPC 10% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 38% NDP 34% CPC 13% LPC 9% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 38% NDP 34% CPC 13% LPC 10% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 39% NDP 33% CPC 13% LPC 10% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 39% NDP 32% CPC 13% LPC 10% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 39% NDP 32% CPC 13% LPC 10% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 40% NDP 31% CPC 13% LPC 10% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 40% NDP 31% CPC 13% LPC 10% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 40% NDP 31% CPC 14% LPC 9% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 39% NDP 32% CPC 14% LPC 9% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 39% NDP 33% CPC 13% LPC 9% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 39% NDP 33% CPC 13% LPC 9% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 BQ 40% NDP 32% CPC 15% LPC 8% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 BQ 40% NDP 32% CPC 15% LPC 8% 2024-12-29

Odds of winning | Berthier—Maskinongé

LPC <1% NDP 7% BQ 93% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 93% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 97% NDP 3% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 94% NDP 6% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 82% NDP 18% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 79% NDP 21% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 88% NDP 12% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 90% NDP 10% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 93% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 92% NDP 8% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 93% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 93% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 91% NDP 9% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 90% NDP 10% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 77% NDP 23% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 79% NDP 21% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 84% NDP 16% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 84% NDP 16% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 80% NDP 20% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 76% NDP 24% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 79% NDP 21% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 85% NDP 15% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 88% NDP 12% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 90% NDP 10% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 95% NDP 5% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 94% NDP 6% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 93% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 90% NDP 10% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 86% NDP 14% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 87% NDP 13% LPC <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 BQ 92% NDP 8% LPC <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 BQ 93% NDP 7% LPC <1% 2024-12-29

Recent electoral history | Berthier—Maskinongé



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 38.4% 35.9% 40% ± 7% NDP 34.0% 32.7% 32% ± 7% CPC 10.3% 10.9% 15% ± 5% LPC 14.0% 15.4% 8% ± 4% GPC 1.9% 1.0% 2% ± 2% PPC 0.8% 2.6% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.