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Berthier—Maskinongé

Latest update: January 11, 2026
B
MP: Yves Perron
Quebec
BQ likely

Recent electoral history | Berthier—Maskinongé


2019 2021 2025 Projection BQ 36% ± 7% 38.4% 35.9% 35.0% NDP 24% ± 6% 34.0% 32.7% 21.7% LPC 22% ± 5% 14.0% 15.4% 24.3% CPC 14% ± 4% 10.3% 10.9% 17.2%

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338Canada Berthier—Maskinongé projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for Berthier—Maskinongé


Berthier—Maskinongé 30% 43% 36% ± 7% BQ 18% 30% 24% ± 6% NDP 16% 27% 22% ± 5% LPC 9% 18% 14% ± 4% CPC BQ 2025 35.0% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Berthier—Maskinongé 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% LPC Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Berthier—Maskinongé

LPC 22% ± 5% CPC 14% ± 4% NDP 24% ± 6% BQ 36% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Berthier—Maskinongé 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 BQ 37% NDP 26% LPC 19% CPC 13% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 37% NDP 26% LPC 19% CPC 13% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 36% NDP 25% LPC 21% CPC 14% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 17% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 17% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 17% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 17% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 17% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 17% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 17% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 23% CPC 16% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 34% LPC 25% NDP 23% CPC 16% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 BQ 33% LPC 26% NDP 24% CPC 15% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 BQ 32% LPC 26% NDP 24% CPC 15% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 BQ 32% LPC 27% NDP 25% CPC 15% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 BQ 33% LPC 26% NDP 24% CPC 15% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 BQ 32% LPC 27% NDP 25% CPC 15% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 BQ 32% LPC 26% NDP 25% CPC 15% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 BQ 33% NDP 26% LPC 25% CPC 15% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 BQ 33% NDP 26% LPC 24% CPC 14% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 BQ 33% NDP 26% LPC 24% CPC 15% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 BQ 34% NDP 27% LPC 23% CPC 14% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 BQ 34% LPC 26% NDP 24% CPC 15% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 BQ 34% LPC 26% NDP 23% CPC 15% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 BQ 34% LPC 25% NDP 23% CPC 16% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 BQ 34% LPC 25% NDP 23% CPC 16% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 16% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 BQ 36% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 16% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 16% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 16% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 16% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 16% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 23% CPC 16% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 16% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 BQ 37% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 15% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 BQ 37% LPC 23% NDP 22% CPC 15% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 BQ 37% NDP 23% LPC 23% CPC 15% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 BQ 36% NDP 24% LPC 22% CPC 14% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 BQ 37% NDP 24% LPC 22% CPC 14% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 BQ 36% NDP 24% LPC 22% CPC 14% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | Berthier—Maskinongé

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP 1% BQ 99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 BQ 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 98% NDP 2% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 96% LPC 3% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 BQ 91% LPC 7% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 BQ 88% LPC 8% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 BQ 86% LPC 10% NDP 4% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 BQ 90% LPC 8% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 BQ 87% LPC 9% NDP 4% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 BQ 88% NDP 6% LPC 6% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 BQ 90% NDP 6% LPC 3% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 BQ 91% NDP 7% LPC 2% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 BQ 92% NDP 6% LPC 2% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 BQ 94% NDP 6% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 BQ 96% LPC 3% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 BQ 95% LPC 4% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 BQ 97% LPC 2% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 BQ 99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 BQ 99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 BQ 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 BQ 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 BQ 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-11