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Recent electoral history | Berthier—Maskinongé


2019 2021 2025 Projection BQ 35% ± 7% 38.4% 35.9% 35.0% LPC 25% ± 6% 14.0% 15.4% 24.3% NDP 22% ± 6% 34.0% 32.7% 21.7% CPC 13% ± 4% 10.3% 10.9% 17.2%

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338Canada Berthier—Maskinongé projection

Latest update: March 1, 2026

Berthier—Maskinongé 29% 42% 35% ± 7% BQ 20% 31% 25% ± 6% LPC 16% 28% 22% ± 6% NDP 9% 18% 13% ± 4% CPC BQ 2025 35.0% 338Canada vote projection | March 1, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Berthier—Maskinongé 98% BQ 1%▼ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 1, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Berthier—Maskinongé

LPC 25% ± 6% CPC 13% ± 4% NDP 22% ± 6% BQ 35% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Berthier—Maskinongé 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC March 1, 2026 2025-04-26 BQ 37% NDP 26% LPC 19% CPC 13% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 37% NDP 26% LPC 19% CPC 13% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 36% NDP 25% LPC 21% CPC 14% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 17% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 17% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 17% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 17% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 17% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 17% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 17% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 23% CPC 16% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 34% LPC 25% NDP 23% CPC 16% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 BQ 33% LPC 26% NDP 24% CPC 15% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 BQ 32% LPC 26% NDP 24% CPC 15% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 BQ 32% LPC 27% NDP 25% CPC 15% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 BQ 33% LPC 26% NDP 24% CPC 15% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 BQ 32% LPC 27% NDP 25% CPC 15% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 BQ 32% LPC 26% NDP 25% CPC 15% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 BQ 33% NDP 26% LPC 25% CPC 15% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 BQ 33% NDP 26% LPC 24% CPC 14% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 BQ 33% NDP 26% LPC 24% CPC 15% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 BQ 34% NDP 27% LPC 23% CPC 14% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 BQ 34% LPC 26% NDP 24% CPC 15% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 BQ 34% LPC 26% NDP 23% CPC 15% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 BQ 34% LPC 25% NDP 23% CPC 16% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 BQ 34% LPC 25% NDP 23% CPC 16% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 16% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 BQ 36% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 16% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 16% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 16% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 16% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 16% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 23% CPC 16% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 BQ 35% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 16% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 BQ 37% LPC 24% NDP 22% CPC 15% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 BQ 37% LPC 23% NDP 22% CPC 15% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 BQ 37% NDP 23% LPC 23% CPC 15% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 BQ 36% NDP 24% LPC 22% CPC 14% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 BQ 37% NDP 24% LPC 22% CPC 14% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 BQ 36% NDP 24% LPC 22% CPC 14% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 BQ 37% NDP 24% LPC 22% CPC 13% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 BQ 37% NDP 24% LPC 21% CPC 14% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 BQ 34% LPC 24% NDP 23% CPC 15% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 BQ 35% LPC 25% NDP 22% CPC 15% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 BQ 35% LPC 25% NDP 21% CPC 15% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 BQ 35% LPC 25% NDP 21% CPC 15% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 BQ 35% LPC 25% NDP 22% CPC 13% 2026-03-01

Odds of winning | Berthier—Maskinongé

LPC 1% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 98% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ March 1, 2026 2025-04-26 BQ 98% NDP 2% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 98% NDP 2% CPC <1% LPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 BQ 96% LPC 3% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 BQ 91% LPC 7% NDP 2% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 BQ 88% LPC 8% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 BQ 86% LPC 10% NDP 4% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 BQ 90% LPC 8% NDP 3% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 BQ 87% LPC 9% NDP 4% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 BQ 88% NDP 6% LPC 6% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 BQ 90% NDP 6% LPC 3% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 BQ 91% NDP 7% LPC 2% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 BQ 92% NDP 6% LPC 2% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 BQ 94% NDP 6% LPC 1% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 BQ 96% LPC 3% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 BQ 95% LPC 4% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 BQ 97% LPC 2% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 BQ 99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 BQ 99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 BQ 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 BQ 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 BQ 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 BQ 99% NDP 1% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 BQ >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 BQ 98% LPC 1% NDP 1% CPC <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 BQ 98% LPC 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-03-01


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Demographic data | Berthier—Maskinongé

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 98.7% French 0.8% English 0.2% Spanish 0.0% Tagalog 0.0% Arabic 0.0% Portuguese 0.0% MandarinBerthier—MaskinongéSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 18.6% No diploma 20.3% High school 26.4% Trade 18.1% College / Cégep 3.0% Some university 9.8% Bachelor's 3.7% PostgraduateBerthier—MaskinongéSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 98.2% Not visible minority 1.8% Visible minority 0.8% Black 0.4% Latin American 0.2% Arab 0.1% Southeast Asian 0.1% Chinese 0.1% South AsianBerthier—MaskinongéSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 68.9% Catholic 24.5% No Religion 4.6% Christian (n.o.s.) 0.5% Other Christian 0.4% Jehovah's Witness 0.3% Muslim 0.2% Baptist 0.2% Other ReligionsBerthier—MaskinongéSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 74.5% Owner 25.5% RenterBerthier—MaskinongéSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 56.0% Employed 40.3% Not in labour force 3.7% UnemployedBerthier—MaskinongéSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 98.2% Non-Indigenous 1.8% Indigenous identity 1.0% First Nations 0.7% Metis 0.1% OthersBerthier—MaskinongéSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 93.7% Car / truck / van 3.9% Walking 1.3% Other 0.7% Public transit 0.4% BicycleBerthier—MaskinongéSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.