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Canada

Spadina—Harbourfront



Latest projection: March 2, 2025
LPC likely
Spadina—Harbourfront 41% ± 9%▲ LPC 29% ± 8% CPC 23% ± 7%▼ NDP 5% ± 5% GPC LPC 2021 38.2% 338Canada vote projection | March 2, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Spadina—Harbourfront 97%▲ LPC 3%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 2, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Spadina—Harbourfront

LPC 41% ± 9% CPC 29% ± 8% NDP 23% ± 7% GPC 5% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Spadina—Harbourfront 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC March 2, 2025 2024-10-13 NDP 32% CPC 32% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 33% CPC 31% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 33% CPC 31% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 33% CPC 31% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP 33% CPC 31% LPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 33% CPC 30% LPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 NDP 33% CPC 32% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 NDP 33% CPC 32% LPC 26% GPC 6% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 35% CPC 32% LPC 25% GPC 6% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 35% CPC 31% LPC 25% GPC 6% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 NDP 37% CPC 32% LPC 23% GPC 6% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 NDP 37% CPC 32% LPC 23% GPC 6% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 NDP 37% CPC 32% LPC 22% GPC 6% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 NDP 36% CPC 33% LPC 23% GPC 6% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 34% CPC 33% LPC 25% GPC 6% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 34% CPC 33% LPC 25% GPC 6% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP 32% CPC 31% LPC 29% GPC 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 32% NDP 30% CPC 30% GPC 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 26% GPC 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 39% CPC 29% NDP 24% GPC 5% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 41% CPC 29% NDP 23% GPC 5% 2025-03-02 ▼ Trudeau resigns

Odds of winning | Spadina—Harbourfront

LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 2, 2025 2024-10-13 NDP 50% CPC 44% LPC 6% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 55% CPC 38% LPC 7% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 58% CPC 35% LPC 7% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 61% CPC 32% LPC 7% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP 56% CPC 35% LPC 9% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 60% CPC 28% LPC 12% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 NDP 58% CPC 37% LPC 5% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 NDP 57% CPC 40% LPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 72% CPC 27% LPC 1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 74% CPC 25% LPC 1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 NDP 79% CPC 21% LPC <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 NDP 79% CPC 21% LPC <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 NDP 79% CPC 21% LPC <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 NDP 65% CPC 35% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 59% CPC 39% LPC 2% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 59% CPC 38% LPC 2% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 NDP 46% CPC 35% LPC 19% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 52% NDP 25% CPC 23% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 85% CPC 12% NDP 3% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 95% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 ▼ Trudeau resigns

Recent electoral history | Spadina—Harbourfront



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 56.2% 38.2% 41% ± 9% CPC 19.4% 21.7% 29% ± 8% NDP 18.0% 33.8% 23% ± 7% GPC 5.1% 3.2% 5% ± 5% PPC 1.2% 3.0% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.