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Canada


Simcoe North (federal)


MP: Adam Chambers (CPC)


Latest projection: November 26, 2023

CPC safe hold
Simcoe North 55% ± 7% 18% ± 5% 16% ± 5% 7% ± 4% 4% ± 4% CPC 2021 43.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 26, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Simcoe North >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | November 26, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Simcoe North

LPC 18% ± 5% CPC 55% ± 7% NDP 16% ± 5% GPC 7% ± 4% PPC 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Simcoe North 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Odds of winning | Simcoe North

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Simcoe North



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 43.5% 43.4% 43.0% 55% ± 7% LPC 39.8% 30.8% 30.31% 18% ± 5% NDP 10.6% 14.1% 15.62% 16% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.8% 7.76% 4% ± 4% GPC 4.5% 9.4% 2.99% 7% ± 4%