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Canada

Spadina—Harbourfront



Latest projection: December 29, 2024
NDP leaning
Spadina—Harbourfront 37% ± 8% NDP 32% ± 8% CPC 23% ± 7% LPC 6% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 38.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Spadina—Harbourfront 79% NDP 21% CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | December 29, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Spadina—Harbourfront

LPC 23% ± 7% CPC 32% ± 8% NDP 37% ± 8% GPC 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Spadina—Harbourfront 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 36% CPC 29% LPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 35% CPC 29% LPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 35% CPC 29% LPC 29% GPC 6% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 36% CPC 29% LPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 35% LPC 29% CPC 29% GPC 6% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 36% LPC 29% CPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 37% CPC 28% LPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 32% NDP 31% LPC 29% GPC 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 32% NDP 31% LPC 29% GPC 6% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 32% NDP 31% LPC 29% GPC 6% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 32% NDP 31% LPC 29% GPC 6% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 32% NDP 31% LPC 29% GPC 6% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 32% CPC 31% LPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 32% CPC 31% LPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 32% CPC 31% LPC 29% GPC 6% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP 31% CPC 30% LPC 30% GPC 6% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 31% LPC 30% NDP 30% GPC 6% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 32% NDP 30% LPC 29% GPC 6% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 33% LPC 29% NDP 29% GPC 7% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 34% LPC 28% NDP 28% GPC 7% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 33% NDP 30% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 33% NDP 32% LPC 26% GPC 6% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 NDP 32% CPC 32% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 33% CPC 31% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 33% CPC 31% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 33% CPC 31% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP 33% CPC 31% LPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 33% CPC 30% LPC 28% GPC 6% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 NDP 33% CPC 32% LPC 27% GPC 6% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 NDP 33% CPC 32% LPC 26% GPC 6% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 35% CPC 32% LPC 25% GPC 6% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 35% CPC 31% LPC 25% GPC 6% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 NDP 37% CPC 32% LPC 23% GPC 6% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 NDP 37% CPC 32% LPC 23% GPC 6% 2024-12-29

Odds of winning | Spadina—Harbourfront

LPC <1% CPC 21% NDP 79% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 29, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 83% CPC 12% LPC 6% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 81% CPC 12% LPC 6% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 77% CPC 11% LPC 11% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 82% CPC 9% LPC 8% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 80% LPC 10% CPC 10% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 84% LPC 9% CPC 7% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 89% CPC 6% LPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 45% NDP 41% LPC 14% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 43% NDP 40% LPC 17% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 48% NDP 37% LPC 16% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 50% NDP 36% LPC 14% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 50% NDP 36% LPC 14% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 52% CPC 38% LPC 10% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 NDP 49% CPC 40% LPC 11% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 NDP 46% CPC 37% LPC 17% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 NDP 41% CPC 34% LPC 25% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 47% LPC 28% NDP 25% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 51% NDP 27% LPC 22% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 67% NDP 16% LPC 16% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 75% LPC 12% NDP 12% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 66% NDP 26% LPC 8% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 51% NDP 44% LPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 NDP 50% CPC 44% LPC 6% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 55% CPC 38% LPC 7% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 58% CPC 35% LPC 7% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 61% CPC 32% LPC 7% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 NDP 56% CPC 35% LPC 9% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 NDP 60% CPC 28% LPC 12% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 NDP 58% CPC 37% LPC 5% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 NDP 57% CPC 40% LPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 72% CPC 27% LPC 1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 74% CPC 25% LPC 1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 NDP 79% CPC 21% LPC <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 NDP 79% CPC 21% LPC <1% 2024-12-29

Recent electoral history | Spadina—Harbourfront



2019 2021 Proj. NDP 18.0% 33.8% 37% ± 8% CPC 19.4% 21.7% 32% ± 8% LPC 56.2% 38.2% 23% ± 7% GPC 5.1% 3.2% 6% ± 4% PPC 1.2% 3.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.