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Thérèse-De Blainville

Latest update: March 8, 2026
L
MP: Madeleine Chenette
Quebec
LPC likely
Projection — Thérèse-De Blainville → Demographic data — Thérèse-De Blainville → Regional projection — Quebec → All federal districts → Federal projection map → Federal polls → Back to 338Canada home → Riding roulette! →

Recent electoral history | Thérèse-De Blainville


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 45% ± 7% 36.0% 35.2% 45.8% BQ 34% ± 6% 41.8% 40.9% 32.3% CPC 15% ± 4% 9.0% 11.0% 18.7% NDP 4% ± 3% 7.5% 7.3% 2.5%

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338Canada Thérèse-De Blainville projection

Latest update: March 8, 2026

Thérèse-De Blainville 38% 52% 45% ± 7% LPC 27% 40% 34% ± 6% BQ 11% 20% 15% ± 4% CPC 1% 6% 4% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 45.8% 338Canada vote projection | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thérèse-De Blainville 98% LPC 2% BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | March 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Thérèse-De Blainville

LPC 45% ± 7% CPC 15% ± 4% NDP 4% ± 3% BQ 34% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Thérèse-De Blainville 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 41% BQ 39% CPC 15% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 41% BQ 39% CPC 15% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 42% BQ 39% CPC 15% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 46% BQ 32% CPC 19% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 46% BQ 32% CPC 19% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 46% BQ 32% CPC 19% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 46% BQ 32% CPC 19% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 46% BQ 32% CPC 19% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 46% BQ 33% CPC 18% NDP 2% GPC 0% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 46% BQ 33% CPC 18% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 46% BQ 33% CPC 18% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 48% BQ 31% CPC 17% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 49% BQ 31% CPC 17% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 50% BQ 30% CPC 17% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 50% BQ 30% CPC 16% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 50% BQ 31% CPC 16% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 50% BQ 30% CPC 16% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 49% BQ 32% CPC 16% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 48% BQ 32% CPC 16% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 47% BQ 33% CPC 17% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 47% BQ 33% CPC 17% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 45% BQ 34% CPC 17% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 46% BQ 33% CPC 17% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 46% BQ 33% CPC 17% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 45% BQ 33% CPC 18% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 45% BQ 33% CPC 18% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 44% BQ 35% CPC 18% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 44% BQ 35% CPC 18% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 43% BQ 35% CPC 18% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 43% BQ 35% CPC 18% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 43% BQ 34% CPC 18% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 43% BQ 34% CPC 19% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 43% BQ 35% CPC 19% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 43% BQ 35% CPC 19% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 43% BQ 36% CPC 17% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 42% BQ 37% CPC 18% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 41% BQ 37% CPC 17% NDP 3% GPC 0% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 40% BQ 36% CPC 16% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 40% BQ 37% CPC 16% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 40% BQ 37% CPC 16% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 40% BQ 37% CPC 16% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 39% BQ 37% CPC 16% NDP 5% GPC 1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 43% BQ 33% CPC 17% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 44% BQ 33% CPC 17% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 45% BQ 33% CPC 16% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 44% BQ 33% CPC 16% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC 45% BQ 34% CPC 15% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 LPC 45% BQ 34% CPC 15% NDP 4% GPC 1% 2026-03-08

Odds of winning | Thérèse-De Blainville

LPC 98% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ March 8, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 65% BQ 35% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 62% BQ 38% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 69% BQ 31% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 87% BQ 13% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 83% BQ 17% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 74% BQ 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 75% BQ 25% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 74% BQ 26% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 75% BQ 25% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 69% BQ 31% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 67% BQ 33% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-22 2026-03-01 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-03-01 2026-03-08 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-03-08


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Demographic data | Thérèse-De Blainville

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 89.7% French 5.8% English 1.0% Spanish 0.9% Arabic 0.4% Romanian 0.3% Portuguese 0.3% MandarinThérèse-De BlainvilleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 9.0% No diploma 16.7% High school 18.4% Trade 21.0% College / Cégep 5.3% Some university 19.8% Bachelor's 9.9% PostgraduateThérèse-De BlainvilleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 87.7% Not visible minority 12.3% Visible minority 4.7% Black 3.1% Arab 1.7% Latin American 0.7% Southeast Asian 0.7% Chinese 0.4% South AsianThérèse-De BlainvilleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 56.1% Catholic 28.7% No Religion 6.2% Christian (n.o.s.) 3.7% Muslim 1.7% Orthodox 1.2% Other Christian 0.6% Baptist 0.4% PentecostalThérèse-De BlainvilleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 70.7% Owner 29.3% RenterThérèse-De BlainvilleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 65.2% Employed 30.4% Not in labour force 4.4% UnemployedThérèse-De BlainvilleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 98.8% Non-Indigenous 1.2% Indigenous identity 0.7% First Nations 0.4% Metis 0.1% OthersThérèse-De BlainvilleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 90.3% Car / truck / van 4.5% Public transit 2.9% Walking 1.5% Other 0.8% BicycleThérèse-De BlainvilleSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.