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Canada

Thérèse-De Blainville


MP: Madeleine Chenette (LPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
LPC likely

Recent electoral history | Thérèse-De Blainville


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 46% ± 7% 36.0% 35.2% 45.8% BQ 32% ± 7% 41.8% 40.9% 32.3% CPC 19% ± 5% 9.0% 11.0% 18.7% NDP 2% ± 2% 7.5% 7.3% 2.5% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.6% 2.7% 0.7% GPC 0% ± 0% 4.6% 1.9% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.


Thérèse-De Blainville 46% ± 7% LPC 32% ± 7% BQ 19% ± 5% CPC LPC 2025 45.8% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thérèse-De Blainville 99%▼ LPC 1%▲ BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thérèse-De Blainville

LPC 46% ± 7% CPC 19% ± 5% BQ 32% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Thérèse-De Blainville 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 46% LPC 24% CPC 16% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 45% LPC 24% CPC 17% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 44% LPC 25% CPC 16% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 44% LPC 26% CPC 16% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 41% LPC 29% CPC 15% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 40% LPC 32% CPC 15% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 39% LPC 34% CPC 15% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 37% BQ 37% CPC 14% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 37% BQ 36% CPC 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 38% BQ 35% CPC 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 40% BQ 34% CPC 14% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 14% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 14% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 14% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 40% BQ 35% CPC 14% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 40% BQ 35% CPC 14% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 43% BQ 34% CPC 13% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 43% BQ 33% CPC 13% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 44% BQ 33% CPC 13% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 44% BQ 32% CPC 14% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 45% BQ 31% CPC 14% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 45% BQ 31% CPC 14% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 45% BQ 31% CPC 14% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 46% BQ 31% CPC 14% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 47% BQ 30% CPC 14% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 48% BQ 30% CPC 14% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 48% BQ 30% CPC 14% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 47% BQ 31% CPC 14% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 47% BQ 31% CPC 14% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 47% BQ 31% CPC 14% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 47% BQ 32% CPC 13% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 46% BQ 32% CPC 13% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 48% BQ 33% CPC 13% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48% BQ 33% CPC 13% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 48% BQ 33% CPC 14% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 46% BQ 34% CPC 14% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 46% BQ 34% CPC 14% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 46% BQ 34% CPC 14% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 46% BQ 34% CPC 14% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 45% BQ 35% CPC 14% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 45% BQ 35% CPC 14% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 43% BQ 38% CPC 14% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 43% BQ 38% CPC 14% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 43% BQ 38% CPC 14% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 43% BQ 39% CPC 14% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 42% BQ 39% CPC 15% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 42% BQ 39% CPC 15% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 41% BQ 39% CPC 15% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 41% BQ 39% CPC 15% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 41% BQ 39% CPC 15% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 42% BQ 39% CPC 15% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 46% BQ 32% CPC 19% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 46% BQ 32% CPC 19% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 46% BQ 32% CPC 19% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 46% BQ 32% CPC 19% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 46% BQ 32% CPC 19% 2025-06-01 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Thérèse-De Blainville

LPC 99% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 81% LPC 19% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 51% BQ 49% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 57% BQ 43% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 68% BQ 32% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 86% BQ 14% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 88% BQ 12% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 88% BQ 12% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 88% BQ 12% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 93% BQ 7% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 97% BQ 3% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 78% BQ 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 77% BQ 23% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 78% BQ 22% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 72% BQ 28% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 67% BQ 33% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 65% BQ 35% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 65% BQ 35% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 62% BQ 38% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 69% BQ 31% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader