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Canada

Thérèse-De Blainville



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
BQ safe
Thérèse-De Blainville 44% ± 7% BQ 26% ± 6% LPC 14% ± 5% CPC 9% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC BQ 2021 40.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thérèse-De Blainville >99% BQ <1% LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thérèse-De Blainville

LPC 26% ± 6% CPC 14% ± 5% NDP 9% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 3% BQ 44% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Thérèse-De Blainville 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ 43% LPC 29% CPC 15% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ 45% LPC 28% CPC 14% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ 44% LPC 29% CPC 14% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 42% LPC 30% CPC 15% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 41% LPC 30% CPC 15% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 41% LPC 31% CPC 15% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 43% LPC 29% CPC 15% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ 43% LPC 28% CPC 14% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ 43% LPC 28% CPC 14% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ 43% LPC 28% CPC 14% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ 43% LPC 28% CPC 14% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ 43% LPC 28% CPC 14% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 42% LPC 30% CPC 13% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 42% LPC 30% CPC 13% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 42% LPC 29% CPC 15% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 41% LPC 30% CPC 14% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 40% LPC 31% CPC 14% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 41% LPC 30% CPC 14% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 42% LPC 30% CPC 14% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 42% LPC 29% CPC 14% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 42% LPC 28% CPC 14% NDP 8% GPC 4% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ 42% LPC 28% CPC 14% NDP 9% GPC 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 42% LPC 28% CPC 13% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 42% LPC 29% CPC 13% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 43% LPC 29% CPC 13% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 43% LPC 29% CPC 13% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ 44% LPC 28% CPC 13% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 43% LPC 28% CPC 14% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 44% LPC 27% CPC 14% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ 43% LPC 27% CPC 14% NDP 8% GPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 44% LPC 26% CPC 14% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 44% LPC 26% CPC 14% NDP 9% GPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Thérèse-De Blainville

LPC <1% NDP <1% BQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 BQ 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 BQ 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 BQ 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 BQ 97% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 BQ 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Thérèse-De Blainville



2019 2021 Proj. BQ 41.8% 40.9% 44% ± 7% LPC 36.0% 35.2% 26% ± 6% CPC 9.0% 11.0% 14% ± 5% NDP 7.5% 7.3% 9% ± 4% PPC 0.6% 2.7% 2% ± 3% GPC 4.6% 1.9% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.