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Canada

Thérèse-De Blainville



Latest projection: March 25, 2025
LPC likely
Thérèse-De Blainville 43% ± 8%▲ LPC 34% ± 7%▼ BQ 13% ± 5%▼ CPC 4% ± 3%▼ NDP 3% ± 3% GPC BQ 2021 40.9% 338Canada vote projection | March 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thérèse-De Blainville 93%▲ LPC 7%▼ BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | March 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Thérèse-De Blainville

LPC 43% ± 8% CPC 13% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 3% BQ 34% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Thérèse-De Blainville 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ March 25, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 37% BQ 36% CPC 15% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 38% BQ 35% CPC 14% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 40% BQ 34% CPC 14% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 14% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 14% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 41% BQ 34% CPC 14% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 40% BQ 35% CPC 14% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 40% BQ 35% CPC 14% NDP 5% GPC 3% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 43% BQ 34% CPC 13% NDP 4% GPC 3% 2025-03-25 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Thérèse-De Blainville

LPC 93% NDP <1% BQ 7% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP BQ March 25, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 57% BQ 43% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 68% BQ 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 86% BQ 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 88% BQ 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 88% BQ 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 88% BQ 12% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 93% BQ 7% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Thérèse-De Blainville



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 36.0% 35.2% 43% ± 8% BQ 41.8% 40.9% 34% ± 7% CPC 9.0% 11.0% 13% ± 5% NDP 7.5% 7.3% 4% ± 3% GPC 4.6% 1.9% 3% ± 3% PPC 0.6% 2.7% 2% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.