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Recent electoral history | Vimy


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 52% ± 7% 48.2% 50.1% 53.4% CPC 21% ± 5% 11.2% 13.8% 24.7% BQ 19% ± 5% 26.9% 22.3% 17.2% NDP 6% ± 4% 8.7% 9.3% 4.7% PPC 0% ± 1% 1.4% 4.3% 0.0%

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338Canada Vimy projection

Latest update: February 22, 2026

Vimy 45% 59% 52% ± 7% LPC 16% 27% 21% ± 5% CPC 13% 24% 19% ± 5% BQ 3% 10% 6% ± 4% NDP LPC 2025 53.4% 338Canada vote projection | February 22, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vimy >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | February 22, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Vimy

LPC 52% ± 7% CPC 21% ± 5% NDP 6% ± 4% BQ 19% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Vimy 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC February 22, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 60% CPC 20% BQ 15% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 60% CPC 20% BQ 15% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 62% CPC 20% BQ 15% NDP 4% GPC 0% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 53% CPC 25% BQ 17% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 53% CPC 25% BQ 17% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 53% CPC 25% BQ 17% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 53% CPC 25% BQ 17% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 53% CPC 25% BQ 17% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 53% CPC 25% BQ 17% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 53% CPC 24% BQ 18% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 54% CPC 24% BQ 17% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 56% CPC 23% BQ 17% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 57% CPC 22% BQ 16% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 57% CPC 22% BQ 16% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 58% CPC 21% BQ 16% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 58% CPC 21% BQ 16% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 58% CPC 21% BQ 16% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 56% CPC 21% BQ 17% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 55% CPC 21% BQ 18% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 54% CPC 22% BQ 18% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 54% CPC 22% BQ 18% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 53% CPC 22% BQ 19% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 53% CPC 23% BQ 19% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 53% CPC 23% BQ 18% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 52% CPC 24% BQ 18% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 52% CPC 24% BQ 18% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 51% CPC 24% BQ 19% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 51% CPC 24% BQ 19% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 51% CPC 24% BQ 19% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 51% CPC 24% BQ 19% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 51% CPC 25% BQ 19% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 50% CPC 25% BQ 19% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 50% CPC 25% BQ 19% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 50% CPC 25% BQ 19% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 50% CPC 23% BQ 21% NDP 5% GPC 0% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 50% CPC 24% BQ 21% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 49% CPC 23% BQ 22% NDP 6% GPC 0% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 48% CPC 22% BQ 21% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 48% CPC 22% BQ 21% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 48% CPC 22% BQ 21% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 47% BQ 22% CPC 22% NDP 8% GPC 1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 47% CPC 22% BQ 22% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 50% CPC 22% BQ 19% NDP 7% GPC 1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 51% CPC 22% BQ 18% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 52% CPC 21% BQ 18% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 52% CPC 21% BQ 19% NDP 6% GPC 1% 2026-02-22

Odds of winning | Vimy

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 22, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-22


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Demographic data | Vimy

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 61.3% French 13.0% English 8.4% Arabic 3.3% Spanish 2.6% Armenian 1.3% Greek 1.0% RomanianVimySource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 13.7% No diploma 17.1% High school 14.1% Trade 17.1% College / Cégep 5.3% Some university 20.8% Bachelor's 12.0% PostgraduateVimySource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 59.4% Not visible minority 40.6% Visible minority 16.2% Arab 9.1% Black 4.2% Latin American 3.7% South Asian 2.2% Southeast Asian 1.9% West AsianVimySource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 38.7% Catholic 18.1% No Religion 17.3% Muslim 9.1% Orthodox 8.5% Christian (n.o.s.) 1.9% Other Christian 1.6% Buddhist 1.3% HinduVimySource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 54.5% Renter 45.5% OwnerVimySource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 55.9% Employed 37.7% Not in labour force 6.4% UnemployedVimySource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 99.2% Non-Indigenous 0.8% Indigenous identity 0.4% First Nations 0.3% MetisVimySource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 78.1% Car / truck / van 16.0% Public transit 3.7% Walking 1.5% Other 0.7% BicycleVimySource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.