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Vimy



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
LPC likely
Vimy 36% ± 7% LPC 27% ± 7% BQ 20% ± 6% CPC 11% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 50.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vimy 95%▼ LPC 5%▲ BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vimy

LPC 36% ± 7% CPC 20% ± 6% NDP 11% ± 4% BQ 27% ± 7% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Vimy 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ PPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 45% BQ 23% CPC 18% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 44% BQ 25% CPC 17% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 46% BQ 24% CPC 17% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 46% BQ 22% CPC 18% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 46% BQ 22% CPC 18% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 47% BQ 21% CPC 18% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 42% BQ 22% CPC 21% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 41% BQ 23% CPC 21% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 41% BQ 23% CPC 20% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 42% BQ 23% CPC 20% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 42% BQ 23% CPC 20% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 42% BQ 23% CPC 20% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 43% BQ 22% CPC 19% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 43% BQ 22% CPC 19% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 42% BQ 22% CPC 21% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 43% BQ 21% CPC 20% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 45% BQ 20% CPC 20% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 44% BQ 21% CPC 19% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 43% BQ 21% CPC 20% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 40% BQ 25% CPC 19% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 39% BQ 25% CPC 20% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 38% BQ 25% CPC 20% NDP 11% PPC 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 39% BQ 25% CPC 19% NDP 11% PPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 40% BQ 26% CPC 19% NDP 11% PPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 40% BQ 26% CPC 18% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 40% BQ 26% CPC 18% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 39% BQ 27% CPC 19% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 39% BQ 26% CPC 19% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 37% BQ 27% CPC 20% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 37% BQ 26% CPC 20% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 36% BQ 27% CPC 20% NDP 11% PPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 36% BQ 27% CPC 20% NDP 11% PPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Vimy

LPC 95% CPC <1% NDP <1% BQ 5% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 99% BQ 1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 99% BQ 1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 99% BQ 1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 98% BQ 2% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 98% BQ 2% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 96% BQ 4% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 95% BQ 5% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Vimy



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 48.2% 50.1% 36% ± 7% BQ 26.9% 22.3% 27% ± 7% CPC 11.2% 13.8% 20% ± 6% NDP 8.7% 9.3% 11% ± 4% PPC 1.4% 4.3% 3% ± 4% GPC 3.8% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.