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Canada

Vimy


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
LPC safe
Vimy 42% ± 8% LPC 23% ± 6% BQ 20% ± 6% CPC 10% ± 4% NDP 3% ± 4% PPC LPC 2021 50.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vimy >99% LPC <1% BQ <1% CPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vimy

LPC 42% ± 8% CPC 20% ± 6% NDP 10% ± 4% BQ 23% ± 6% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Vimy 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ PPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 45% BQ 23% CPC 18% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 44% BQ 25% CPC 17% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 46% BQ 24% CPC 17% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 46% BQ 22% CPC 18% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 46% BQ 22% CPC 18% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 47% BQ 21% CPC 18% NDP 9% PPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 42% BQ 22% CPC 21% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 41% BQ 23% CPC 21% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 41% BQ 23% CPC 20% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 42% BQ 23% CPC 20% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 42% BQ 23% CPC 20% NDP 10% PPC 3% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Vimy

LPC >99% NDP <1% BQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP BQ July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Vimy



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 48.2% 50.1% 42% ± 8% BQ 26.9% 22.3% 23% ± 6% CPC 11.2% 13.8% 20% ± 6% NDP 8.7% 9.3% 10% ± 4% PPC 1.4% 4.3% 3% ± 4% GPC 3.8% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.