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Canada

University—Rosedale



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up LPC/NDP
University—Rosedale 33% ± 7% LPC 30% ± 7% NDP 27% ± 6% CPC 7% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 46.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% University—Rosedale 64%▼ LPC 29%▲ NDP 7%▼ CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | University—Rosedale

LPC 33% ± 7% CPC 27% ± 6% NDP 30% ± 7% GPC 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | University—Rosedale 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 25% GPC 8% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 36% NDP 29% CPC 25% GPC 8% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 24% GPC 8% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 36% NDP 29% CPC 24% GPC 8% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 24% GPC 8% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 37% NDP 29% CPC 24% GPC 8% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 24% GPC 8% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 37% CPC 27% NDP 26% GPC 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 37% CPC 27% NDP 26% GPC 6% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 37% CPC 27% NDP 26% GPC 6% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 37% CPC 27% NDP 26% GPC 7% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 37% CPC 27% NDP 26% GPC 6% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 36% NDP 27% CPC 27% GPC 7% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 36% NDP 27% CPC 27% GPC 7% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 37% NDP 26% CPC 26% GPC 7% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 38% NDP 26% CPC 26% GPC 7% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 38% CPC 27% NDP 25% GPC 7% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 38% CPC 27% NDP 25% GPC 7% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 37% CPC 28% NDP 24% GPC 8% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 37% CPC 29% NDP 24% GPC 7% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 36% CPC 29% NDP 25% GPC 7% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 35% CPC 28% NDP 27% GPC 7% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 35% CPC 27% NDP 27% GPC 7% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 35% NDP 28% CPC 27% GPC 7% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 35% NDP 28% CPC 27% GPC 7% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 35% NDP 28% CPC 27% GPC 7% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 36% NDP 28% CPC 27% GPC 7% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 37% NDP 28% CPC 26% GPC 7% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 35% NDP 28% CPC 27% GPC 7% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 34% NDP 29% CPC 28% GPC 7% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 33% NDP 30% CPC 27% GPC 7% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 33% NDP 30% CPC 27% GPC 7% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | University—Rosedale

LPC 64% CPC 7% NDP 29% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 87% NDP 12% CPC 1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 89% NDP 10% CPC 1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 94% NDP 6% CPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 91% NDP 9% CPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 93% NDP 7% CPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 92% NDP 8% CPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 85% NDP 15% CPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 96% CPC 2% NDP 2% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 97% CPC 2% NDP 1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 96% CPC 2% NDP 1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 96% CPC 3% NDP 1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 96% CPC 3% NDP 1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 94% NDP 3% CPC 2% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 95% NDP 3% CPC 2% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 97% NDP 2% CPC 1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP 1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 92% CPC 7% NDP 1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 86% CPC 8% NDP 6% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 90% NDP 5% CPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 91% NDP 5% CPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 91% NDP 6% CPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 90% NDP 7% CPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 93% NDP 5% CPC 2% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 95% NDP 4% CPC 1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 87% NDP 8% CPC 5% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 82% NDP 11% CPC 7% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 65% NDP 27% CPC 8% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 64% NDP 29% CPC 7% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | University—Rosedale



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 51.6% 46.5% 33% ± 7% NDP 23.3% 28.1% 30% ± 7% CPC 15.7% 17.9% 27% ± 6% GPC 7.9% 4.4% 7% ± 4% PPC 0.9% 2.6% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.