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Canada

University—Rosedale


MP elect: Chrystia Freeland (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | University—Rosedale


Liberal Chrystia Freeland*
Conservative Liz Grade
NDP Serena Purdy
Green Ignacio Mongrell
Marxist-Leninist Barbara Biley
Communist Drew Garvie
Independent Adam Golding

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



University—Rosedale 64% ± 6%▲ LPC 23% ± 5%▼ CPC 10% ± 4% NDP LPC 2025 64.0% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% University—Rosedale >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | University—Rosedale

LPC 64% ± 6% CPC 23% ± 5% NDP 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | University—Rosedale 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 34% NDP 30% CPC 28% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 36% NDP 28% CPC 27% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 36% NDP 28% CPC 27% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 39% NDP 27% CPC 26% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 42% NDP 25% CPC 25% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 47% CPC 24% NDP 21% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 50% CPC 23% NDP 19% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 51% CPC 23% NDP 18% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 51% CPC 23% NDP 18% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 53% CPC 22% NDP 17% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 55% CPC 21% NDP 15% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 56% CPC 21% NDP 15% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 56% CPC 21% NDP 15% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 56% CPC 21% NDP 15% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 56% CPC 21% NDP 15% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 56% CPC 21% NDP 15% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 59% CPC 21% NDP 13% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 59% CPC 21% NDP 13% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 59% CPC 21% NDP 13% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 60% CPC 21% NDP 12% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 61% CPC 21% NDP 12% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 61% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 61% CPC 22% NDP 11% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 63% CPC 22% NDP 10% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 64% CPC 22% NDP 10% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 10% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 10% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 65% CPC 21% NDP 10% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 10% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 64% CPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 64% CPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 64% CPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 64% CPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 64% CPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 63% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 11% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 62% CPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 57% CPC 21% NDP 17% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 57% CPC 21% NDP 18% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 57% CPC 21% NDP 18% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 56% CPC 21% NDP 18% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 56% CPC 21% NDP 18% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 56% CPC 21% NDP 18% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 56% CPC 21% NDP 18% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 58% CPC 21% NDP 17% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 64% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 64% CPC 23% NDP 10% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | University—Rosedale

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 73% NDP 19% CPC 8% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 86% NDP 9% CPC 5% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 89% NDP 7% CPC 4% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 98% NDP 2% CPC 1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | University—Rosedale



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 64% ± 6% 51.6% 46.5% 64.0% CPC 23% ± 5% 15.7% 17.9% 23.5% NDP 10% ± 4% 23.3% 28.1% 9.9% GPC 2% ± 1% 7.9% 4.4% 1.7% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.9% 2.6% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.