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University—Rosedale

Latest update: January 11, 2026
MP: Vacant
Ontario
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | University—Rosedale


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 53% ± 7% 51.6% 46.5% 64.0% CPC 21% ± 5% 15.7% 17.9% 23.5% NDP 19% ± 6% 23.3% 28.1% 9.9% GPC 4% ± 3% 7.9% 4.4% 1.7%

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338Canada University—Rosedale projection

Latest update: January 11, 2026

338Canada projection for University—Rosedale


University—Rosedale 46% 61% 53% ± 7% LPC 16% 27% 21% ± 5% CPC 14% 25% 19% ± 6% NDP 1% 7% 4% ± 3% GPC LPC 2025 64.0% 338Canada vote projection | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% University—Rosedale >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 11, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | University—Rosedale

LPC 53% ± 7% CPC 21% ± 5% NDP 19% ± 6% GPC 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | University—Rosedale 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 56% CPC 21% NDP 18% GPC 3% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 56% CPC 21% NDP 18% GPC 3% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 58% CPC 21% NDP 17% GPC 3% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 10% GPC 2% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 64% CPC 24% NDP 10% GPC 2% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 10% GPC 2% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 64% CPC 23% NDP 10% GPC 2% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 64% CPC 24% NDP 10% GPC 2% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 64% CPC 23% NDP 10% GPC 2% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 64% CPC 23% NDP 10% GPC 2% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 64% CPC 23% NDP 11% GPC 2% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 64% CPC 23% NDP 11% GPC 2% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 63% CPC 22% NDP 11% GPC 2% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 64% CPC 22% NDP 12% GPC 2% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 64% CPC 22% NDP 12% GPC 2% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 63% CPC 22% NDP 12% GPC 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 63% CPC 22% NDP 12% GPC 2% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 63% CPC 21% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 63% CPC 21% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 62% CPC 22% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 62% CPC 22% NDP 13% GPC 2% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 61% CPC 22% NDP 14% GPC 2% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 60% CPC 22% NDP 14% GPC 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 59% CPC 22% NDP 14% GPC 2% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 59% CPC 23% NDP 15% GPC 2% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 58% CPC 23% NDP 15% GPC 2% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 59% CPC 23% NDP 15% GPC 2% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 58% CPC 23% NDP 15% GPC 2% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 58% CPC 23% NDP 15% GPC 2% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 58% CPC 22% NDP 15% GPC 2% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 59% CPC 22% NDP 15% GPC 2% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 58% CPC 22% NDP 15% GPC 2% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 58% CPC 22% NDP 15% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 58% CPC 22% NDP 15% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 59% CPC 21% NDP 16% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 58% CPC 21% NDP 16% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 58% CPC 21% NDP 16% GPC 3% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 54% CPC 21% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 54% CPC 21% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 53% CPC 21% NDP 19% GPC 4% 2026-01-11

Odds of winning | University—Rosedale

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP January 11, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-11