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Canada

Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
LPC leaning
Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester 35% ± 7% LPC 30% ± 6% CPC 26% ± 6% NDP 6% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 49.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester 84% LPC 15% CPC 2% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester

LPC 35% ± 7% CPC 30% ± 6% NDP 26% ± 6% GPC 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 38% CPC 28% NDP 25% GPC 6% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 38% CPC 28% NDP 25% GPC 6% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 40% CPC 28% NDP 24% GPC 6% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 39% CPC 28% NDP 25% GPC 6% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 39% CPC 28% NDP 24% GPC 6% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 40% CPC 27% NDP 25% GPC 6% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 39% CPC 27% NDP 26% GPC 6% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 38% CPC 28% NDP 25% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 39% CPC 28% NDP 24% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 39% CPC 28% NDP 24% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 38% CPC 28% NDP 24% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 38% CPC 28% NDP 24% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 38% CPC 27% NDP 25% GPC 6% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 38% CPC 28% NDP 25% GPC 6% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 39% CPC 27% NDP 25% GPC 6% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 40% CPC 26% NDP 24% GPC 6% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 40% CPC 27% NDP 23% GPC 6% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 39% CPC 28% NDP 23% GPC 6% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 39% CPC 29% NDP 22% GPC 6% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 38% CPC 30% NDP 22% GPC 6% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 38% CPC 30% NDP 23% GPC 6% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 23% GPC 6% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 37% CPC 30% NDP 23% GPC 6% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 37% CPC 29% NDP 23% GPC 6% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 37% CPC 29% NDP 24% GPC 6% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 37% CPC 29% NDP 24% GPC 6% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 38% CPC 29% NDP 24% GPC 6% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 39% CPC 28% NDP 24% GPC 6% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 37% CPC 29% NDP 24% GPC 6% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 36% CPC 30% NDP 24% GPC 6% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 35% CPC 30% NDP 26% GPC 6% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 35% CPC 30% NDP 26% GPC 6% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester

LPC 84% CPC 15% NDP 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 97% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 84% CPC 15% NDP 2% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 84% CPC 15% NDP 2% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 51.1% 49.0% 35% ± 7% NDP 20.6% 23.3% 26% ± 6% CPC 18.1% 20.5% 30% ± 6% PPC 1.6% 3.2% 2% ± 2% GPC 7.5% 3.0% 6% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.