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Canada

Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester


MP elect: Mona Fortier (LPC)

Latest projection: April 30, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester


Liberal Mona Fortier*
Conservative Dean Wythe
NDP Tristan Oliff
Green Christian Proulx
PPC Marty Simms
Marxist-Leninist Christian Legeais
Rhinoceros Peter White
Independent Elizabeth Benoit

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester 68% ± 0%▲ LPC 22% ± 0%▼ CPC 8% ± 0% NDP LPC 2025 67.5% 338Canada vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester

LPC 68% ± 0% CPC 22% ± 0% NDP 8% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 50% CPC 26% NDP 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 52% CPC 25% NDP 15% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 55% CPC 24% NDP 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 55% CPC 24% NDP 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 55% CPC 24% NDP 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 55% CPC 24% NDP 13% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 56% CPC 24% NDP 13% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 56% CPC 24% NDP 13% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 58% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 58% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 58% CPC 24% NDP 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 59% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 60% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 60% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 60% CPC 24% NDP 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 61% CPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 62% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 63% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 62% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 62% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 63% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 63% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 63% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 63% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 63% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 62% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 62% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 62% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 62% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 63% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 63% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 63% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 63% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 62% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 62% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 62% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 63% CPC 23% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 68% CPC 22% NDP 8% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 68% ± 0% 51.1% 49.0% 67.5% CPC 22% ± 0% 18.1% 20.5% 21.7% NDP 8% ± 0% 20.6% 23.3% 7.6% GPC 2% ± 0% 7.5% 3.0% 2.0% IND 1% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 1% ± 0% 1.6% 3.2% 0.5%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.