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Surrey Centre



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up LPC/CPC
Surrey Centre 35% ± 8% CPC 33% ± 8% LPC 26% ± 7% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC LPC 2021 44.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey Centre 59% CPC 39%▼ LPC 2%▲ NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Surrey Centre

LPC 33% ± 8% CPC 35% ± 8% NDP 26% ± 7% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Surrey Centre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 37% LPC 33% NDP 23% GPC 3% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 37% LPC 33% NDP 24% GPC 3% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 36% LPC 34% NDP 24% GPC 3% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 35% LPC 34% NDP 24% GPC 3% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 35% CPC 34% NDP 24% GPC 3% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 36% CPC 34% NDP 24% GPC 3% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 35% CPC 33% NDP 26% GPC 3% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 35% CPC 32% NDP 25% GPC 3% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 35% CPC 32% NDP 25% GPC 3% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 36% CPC 32% NDP 25% GPC 3% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 36% CPC 32% NDP 25% GPC 3% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 36% CPC 32% NDP 25% GPC 3% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 36% CPC 31% NDP 25% GPC 3% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 36% CPC 32% NDP 25% GPC 3% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 35% CPC 31% NDP 26% GPC 3% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 36% CPC 31% NDP 25% GPC 3% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 37% CPC 32% NDP 23% GPC 3% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 37% CPC 32% NDP 23% GPC 3% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 39% CPC 33% NDP 22% GPC 3% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 39% CPC 32% NDP 22% GPC 3% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 37% CPC 33% NDP 23% GPC 3% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 35% CPC 34% NDP 25% GPC 3% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 35% CPC 34% NDP 25% GPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 35% CPC 33% NDP 25% GPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 36% CPC 32% NDP 25% GPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 35% CPC 33% NDP 25% GPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 36% CPC 33% NDP 24% GPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 37% CPC 33% NDP 24% GPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 35% CPC 34% NDP 24% GPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 35% CPC 35% NDP 24% GPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 35% LPC 33% NDP 26% GPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 35% LPC 33% NDP 26% GPC 3% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Surrey Centre

LPC 39% CPC 59% NDP 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 79% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 52% LPC 47% NDP <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 54% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 64% CPC 35% NDP 1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 70% CPC 28% NDP 1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 72% CPC 27% NDP 1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 76% CPC 23% NDP 1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 76% CPC 23% NDP 1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 76% CPC 23% NDP 1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 80% CPC 19% NDP 1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 73% CPC 25% NDP 1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 73% CPC 25% NDP 2% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 77% CPC 22% NDP 1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 84% CPC 16% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 88% CPC 12% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 52% CPC 47% NDP 1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 57% CPC 42% NDP 1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 67% CPC 32% NDP 1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 72% CPC 27% NDP 1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 68% CPC 31% NDP 1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 60% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 59% LPC 40% NDP 1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 59% LPC 39% NDP 2% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Surrey Centre



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 38.4% 44.6% 33% ± 8% NDP 27.9% 27.6% 26% ± 7% CPC 24.3% 20.7% 35% ± 8% PPC 1.7% 3.9% 2% ± 3% GPC 6.0% 2.2% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.