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Surrey Centre


MP: Randeep Sarai (LPC)

Latest projection: July 6, 2025
LPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Surrey Centre


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 47% ± 9% 38.4% 44.6% 48.0% CPC 43% ± 9% 24.3% 20.7% 43.2% NDP 7% ± 4% 27.9% 27.6% 6.8% GPC 1% ± 1% 6.0% 2.2% 1.0% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.7% 3.9% 0.6%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Surrey-Centre


Surrey Centre 47% ± 9% LPC 43% ± 9%▼ CPC 7% ± 4% NDP LPC 2025 48.0% 338Canada vote projection | July 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey Centre 71%▲ LPC 29%▼ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | July 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Surrey Centre

LPC 47% ± 9% CPC 43% ± 9% NDP 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Surrey Centre 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 36% LPC 33% NDP 26% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 36% LPC 34% NDP 24% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 36% LPC 34% NDP 24% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 36% CPC 35% NDP 24% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 22% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 43% CPC 31% NDP 21% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 46% CPC 30% NDP 18% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 49% CPC 27% NDP 18% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 50% CPC 27% NDP 18% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 47% CPC 30% NDP 17% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 53% CPC 30% NDP 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 54% CPC 30% NDP 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 54% CPC 29% NDP 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 54% CPC 30% NDP 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 55% CPC 29% NDP 12% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 55% CPC 29% NDP 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 58% CPC 29% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 59% CPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 59% CPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 63% CPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 63% CPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 52% CPC 37% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 51% CPC 38% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 48% CPC 39% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48% CPC 39% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 47% CPC 39% NDP 10% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 46% CPC 39% NDP 10% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 46% CPC 40% NDP 10% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 46% CPC 40% NDP 10% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 46% CPC 40% NDP 10% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 45% CPC 41% NDP 10% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 46% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 46% CPC 41% NDP 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 45% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 44% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 45% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 45% CPC 42% NDP 9% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 45% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 45% CPC 42% NDP 8% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 45% CPC 43% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 48% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 46% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 47% CPC 44% NDP 7% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 47% CPC 43% NDP 7% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Surrey Centre

LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 6, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 70% LPC 29% NDP 1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 66% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 63% LPC 37% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 80% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 72% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 59% CPC 41% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 82% CPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 74% CPC 26% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 70% CPC 30% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 71% CPC 29% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader