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Surrey Centre



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC leaning

Candidates | Surrey Centre


Liberal Randeep Sarai*
Conservative Rajvir Singh Dhillon
NDP Dominic Denofrio
Green Krishan Khurana
PPC Beverly Tanchak
Communist Ryan Abbott

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Surrey Centre 46% ± 9% LPC 40% ± 9% CPC 10% ± 5% NDP LPC 2021 44.6% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey Centre 79%▼ LPC 21%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Surrey Centre

LPC 46% ± 9% CPC 40% ± 9% NDP 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Surrey Centre 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 50% CPC 27% NDP 18% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 47% CPC 30% NDP 17% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 53% CPC 30% NDP 13% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 54% CPC 30% NDP 13% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 54% CPC 29% NDP 13% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 54% CPC 30% NDP 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 55% CPC 29% NDP 12% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 55% CPC 29% NDP 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 58% CPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 58% CPC 29% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 59% CPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 59% CPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 60% CPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 9% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 63% CPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 63% CPC 26% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 63% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 62% CPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 52% CPC 37% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 51% CPC 38% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 48% CPC 39% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 48% CPC 39% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 47% CPC 39% NDP 10% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 46% CPC 39% NDP 10% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 46% CPC 40% NDP 10% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 46% CPC 40% NDP 10% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Surrey Centre

LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 81% CPC 19% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 79% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Surrey Centre



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 38.4% 44.6% 46% ± 9% CPC 24.3% 20.7% 40% ± 9% NDP 27.9% 27.6% 10% ± 5% GPC 6.0% 2.2% 1% ± 2% PPC 1.7% 3.9% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.