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338Canada federal projection | Alberta, 37 districts


Latest update: April 30, 2025
Alberta 64% ± 1%▲ CPC 28% ± 1%▼ LPC 6% ± 0%▼ NDP 338Canada federal vote projection | April 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Alberta, 37 federal districts 34▲ [32-36] CPC 2▼ [0-4] LPC 1▼ [1-1] NDP 0 [0-0] IND 338Canada seat projection | April 30, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Federal vote projection | Alberta

LPC 28% ± 1% CPC 64% ± 1% NDP 6% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Alberta 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 58% LPC 18% NDP 16% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 55% LPC 22% NDP 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 55% LPC 27% NDP 11% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 12% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 54% LPC 28% NDP 12% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 54% LPC 27% NDP 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 55% LPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 55% LPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 55% LPC 28% NDP 11% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 56% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 56% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 56% LPC 28% NDP 10% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 57% LPC 27% NDP 10% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 57% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 60% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 58% LPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 58% LPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 58% LPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 58% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 60% LPC 27% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 60% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 59% LPC 28% NDP 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 59% LPC 29% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 64% LPC 28% NDP 6% 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Federal seat projection | Alberta

LPC 2 [0-4] CPC 34 [32-36] NDP 1 [1-1] Seat projection | Alberta 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 30, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 35 LPC 1 NDP 1 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 34 LPC 2 NDP 1 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 30 LPC 5 NDP 2 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 30 LPC 5 NDP 2 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 30 LPC 5 NDP 2 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 32 LPC 4 NDP 1 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 32 LPC 4 NDP 1 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 32 LPC 4 NDP 1 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 32 LPC 4 NDP 1 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 32 LPC 4 NDP 1 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 32 LPC 4 NDP 1 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 30 LPC 6 NDP 1 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 29 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 29 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 29 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 27 LPC 9 NDP 1 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 29 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 29 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 29 LPC 7 NDP 1 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 32 LPC 4 NDP 1 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 32 LPC 4 NDP 1 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 32 LPC 4 NDP 1 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 32 LPC 4 NDP 1 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 31 LPC 5 NDP 1 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 29 LPC 6 NDP 2 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 34 LPC 2 NDP 1 2025-04-30 Carney LPC leader

Seat projection | Alberta


Latest update: April 30, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2025)
29 3 2 0 34 34
0 1 0 1 2 2
1 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts | Alberta


Latest update: April 30, 2025
Electoral district Transposed
2021 winner
Latest projection
48001 Airdrie—Cochrane CPC safe
48002 Battle River—Crowfoot CPC safe
48003 Bow River CPC safe
48004 Calgary Centre CPC leaning
48005 Calgary Confederation Toss up LPC/CPC
48006 Calgary Crowfoot CPC safe
48007 Calgary East CPC safe
48008 Calgary Heritage CPC safe
48009 Calgary McKnight CPC leaning
48010 Calgary Midnapore CPC safe
48011 Calgary Nose Hill CPC safe
48012 Calgary Shepard CPC safe
48013 Calgary Signal Hill CPC safe
48014 Calgary Skyview CPC safe
48015 Edmonton Centre LPC likely
48016 Edmonton Gateway CPC safe
48017 Edmonton Griesbach CPC likely
48018 Edmonton Manning CPC safe
48019 Edmonton Northwest CPC safe
48020 Edmonton Riverbend CPC likely
48021 Edmonton Southeast CPC likely
48022 Edmonton Strathcona NDP safe
48023 Edmonton West CPC safe
48024 Foothills CPC safe
48025 Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC safe
48026 Grande Prairie CPC safe
48027 Lakeland CPC safe
48028 Leduc—Wetaskiwin CPC safe
48029 Lethbridge CPC safe
48030 Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC safe
48031 Parkland CPC safe
48032 Peace River—Westlock CPC safe
48033 Ponoka—Didsbury CPC safe
48034 Red Deer CPC safe
48035 Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC safe
48036 St. Albert—Sturgeon River CPC safe
48037 Yellowhead CPC safe