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Canada


Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke (federal)


MP: Randall Garrison (NDP)


Latest projection: October 1, 2023

NDP likely hold
Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke 36% ± 7% 27% ± 6%▼ 20% ± 5%▲ 14% ± 5% NDP 2021 42.85% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 1, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke 96%▲ 4%▼ <1% Odds of winning | October 1, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke

LPC 20% ± 5% CPC 27% ± 6% NDP 36% ± 7% GPC 14% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke

LPC <1% CPC 4% NDP 96% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke



2015 2019 2021 Proj. NDP 35.0% 34.1% 42.85% 36% ± 7% LPC 27.4% 17.9% 21.98% 20% ± 5% CPC 17.5% 19.1% 21.21% 27% ± 6% GPC 19.9% 26.4% 9.0% 14% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.6% 4.57% 2% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0% ± 0%