logo
logo
Canada

St. Albert—Sturgeon River



Latest projection: March 16, 2025
CPC safe
St. Albert—Sturgeon River 56% ± 8%▼ CPC 18% ± 5%▲ LPC 17% ± 5%▼ NDP 3% ± 4% PPC CPC 2021 56.0% 338Canada vote projection | March 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% St. Albert—Sturgeon River >99% CPC <1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | St. Albert—Sturgeon River

LPC 18% ± 5% CPC 56% ± 8% NDP 17% ± 5% PPC 3% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | St. Albert—Sturgeon River 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP PPC March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 CPC 60% NDP 23% LPC 8% PPC 3% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 60% NDP 23% LPC 8% PPC 3% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 60% NDP 23% LPC 8% PPC 3% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 60% NDP 23% LPC 8% PPC 3% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 60% NDP 23% LPC 9% PPC 3% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC 59% NDP 24% LPC 9% PPC 3% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC 60% NDP 23% LPC 9% PPC 3% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 61% NDP 22% LPC 9% PPC 3% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC 60% NDP 23% LPC 8% PPC 3% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC 60% NDP 23% LPC 8% PPC 3% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC 62% NDP 23% LPC 8% PPC 2% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC 62% NDP 23% LPC 8% PPC 2% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC 61% NDP 23% LPC 8% PPC 2% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC 62% NDP 23% LPC 9% PPC 2% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 62% NDP 22% LPC 9% PPC 2% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 62% NDP 22% LPC 9% PPC 2% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 61% NDP 22% LPC 9% PPC 2% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 61% NDP 21% LPC 11% PPC 2% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 61% NDP 20% LPC 11% PPC 2% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 63% NDP 18% LPC 12% PPC 2% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 59% NDP 19% LPC 14% PPC 3% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 59% NDP 19% LPC 14% PPC 3% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 56% LPC 18% NDP 17% PPC 3% 2025-03-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | St. Albert—Sturgeon River

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP March 16, 2025 2024-10-13 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-15 2024-12-22 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-22 2024-12-29 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-29 2025-01-05 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-05 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | St. Albert—Sturgeon River



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 69.6% 56.0% 56% ± 8% LPC 12.3% 11.4% 18% ± 5% NDP 12.4% 23.6% 17% ± 5% PPC 2.2% 7.8% 3% ± 4% GPC 2.8% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.