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Canada

Davenport


MP elect: Julie Dzerowicz (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Davenport


Liberal Julie Dzerowicz*
Conservative Francis Lavoie
NDP Sandra Sousa
Green Lilian Barrera
Communist Dave McKee

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Davenport 58% ± 6% LPC 23% ± 5% CPC 17% ± 4% NDP LPC 2025 57.8% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Davenport >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Davenport

LPC 58% ± 6% CPC 23% ± 5% NDP 17% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Davenport 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 40% LPC 32% CPC 21% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 39% LPC 34% CPC 20% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 39% LPC 35% CPC 20% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 38% NDP 37% CPC 19% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 41% NDP 34% CPC 18% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 46% NDP 29% CPC 18% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 49% NDP 27% CPC 17% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 50% NDP 26% CPC 17% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 49% NDP 27% CPC 17% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 52% NDP 25% CPC 17% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 55% NDP 23% CPC 16% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 55% NDP 23% CPC 16% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 55% NDP 23% CPC 16% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 55% NDP 23% CPC 16% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 56% NDP 23% CPC 16% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 56% NDP 22% CPC 16% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 59% NDP 19% CPC 16% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 59% NDP 19% CPC 16% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 60% NDP 19% CPC 16% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 61% NDP 18% CPC 16% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 61% NDP 17% CPC 16% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 62% NDP 17% CPC 16% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 62% CPC 17% NDP 16% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 63% CPC 17% NDP 16% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 65% CPC 17% NDP 15% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 65% CPC 16% NDP 15% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 65% CPC 16% NDP 16% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 65% CPC 16% NDP 15% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 65% CPC 16% NDP 16% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 64% CPC 16% NDP 16% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 64% CPC 16% NDP 16% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 65% NDP 16% CPC 16% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 64% NDP 16% CPC 16% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 61% NDP 18% CPC 16% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 62% NDP 18% CPC 16% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 62% NDP 18% CPC 16% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 62% NDP 18% CPC 16% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 62% NDP 18% CPC 16% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 62% NDP 18% CPC 16% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 62% NDP 18% CPC 16% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 61% NDP 18% CPC 17% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 61% NDP 18% CPC 16% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 60% NDP 19% CPC 17% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 56% NDP 23% CPC 17% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 56% NDP 23% CPC 17% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 57% NDP 23% CPC 17% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 56% NDP 23% CPC 17% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 56% NDP 23% CPC 17% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 56% NDP 24% CPC 17% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 56% NDP 23% CPC 17% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 53% NDP 25% CPC 17% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 58% CPC 23% NDP 17% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 58% CPC 23% NDP 17% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 58% CPC 23% NDP 17% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 58% CPC 23% NDP 17% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Davenport

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 92% LPC 8% CPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 77% LPC 23% CPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 73% LPC 27% CPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 55% NDP 45% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 87% NDP 13% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Davenport



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 58% ± 6% 45.4% 43.6% 57.8% CPC 23% ± 5% 9.9% 10.9% 23.2% NDP 17% ± 4% 38.7% 39.6% 17.1% GPC 1% ± 1% 4.5% 2.4% 1.3% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.0% 3.3% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.