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Davenport



Latest projection: November 17, 2024
Toss up LPC/NDP
Davenport 38% ± 7%▲ LPC 37% ± 7% NDP 18% ± 5%▼ CPC 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 43.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Davenport 55%▲ LPC 45%▼ NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | November 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Davenport

LPC 38% ± 7% CPC 18% ± 5% NDP 37% ± 7% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Davenport 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 41% LPC 35% CPC 17% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 40% LPC 36% CPC 17% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 40% LPC 37% CPC 17% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 40% LPC 36% CPC 17% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 40% LPC 36% CPC 17% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 40% LPC 37% CPC 17% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 41% LPC 36% CPC 17% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 38% NDP 36% CPC 19% GPC 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 39% NDP 35% CPC 19% GPC 4% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 38% NDP 35% CPC 19% GPC 4% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 38% NDP 35% CPC 19% GPC 4% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 38% NDP 35% CPC 19% GPC 4% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 37% NDP 37% CPC 18% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 37% NDP 36% CPC 18% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 38% NDP 36% CPC 18% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 39% NDP 35% CPC 18% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 40% NDP 33% CPC 19% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 39% NDP 34% CPC 19% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 39% NDP 33% CPC 20% GPC 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 39% NDP 33% CPC 21% GPC 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 37% NDP 34% CPC 20% GPC 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 20% GPC 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 19% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 37% LPC 37% CPC 19% GPC 5% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 19% GPC 5% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 37% LPC 36% CPC 18% GPC 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 37% NDP 37% CPC 19% GPC 5% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 38% NDP 37% CPC 18% GPC 5% 2024-11-17

Odds of winning | Davenport

LPC 55% NDP 45% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP November 17, 2024 2024-05-12 NDP 82% LPC 18% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 NDP 80% LPC 20% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 NDP 70% LPC 30% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 NDP 77% LPC 23% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 NDP 72% LPC 28% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 NDP 74% LPC 26% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 83% LPC 17% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 66% NDP 34% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 71% NDP 29% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 70% NDP 30% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 71% NDP 29% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 71% NDP 29% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 54% NDP 46% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 57% NDP 43% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 67% NDP 33% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 77% NDP 23% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 88% NDP 12% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 83% NDP 17% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 87% NDP 13% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 87% NDP 13% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 70% NDP 30% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 NDP 57% LPC 43% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 NDP 54% LPC 46% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 NDP 53% LPC 47% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 NDP 55% LPC 45% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 NDP 58% LPC 42% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 52% NDP 48% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 55% NDP 45% 2024-11-17

Recent electoral history | Davenport



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 45.4% 43.6% 38% ± 7% NDP 38.7% 39.6% 37% ± 7% CPC 9.9% 10.9% 18% ± 5% PPC 1.0% 3.3% 2% ± 2% GPC 4.5% 2.4% 5% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.