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Canada


Dufferin–Caledon (federal)


MP: Kyle Seeback (CPC)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

CPC safe hold
Dufferin–Caledon 58% ± 7% 17% ± 5%▼ 11% ± 4% 10% ± 5% 4% ± 3% CPC 2021 48.02% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Dufferin–Caledon >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Dufferin–Caledon

LPC 17% ± 5% CPC 58% ± 7% NDP 11% ± 4% GPC 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Dufferin–Caledon 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Dufferin–Caledon

LPC <1% CPC >99% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Dufferin–Caledon



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 46.3% 42.0% 48.02% 58% ± 7% LPC 39.1% 33.0% 30.3% 17% ± 5% NDP 7.3% 11.6% 10.47% 11% ± 4% PPC 0.0% 2.2% 6.69% 4% ± 3% GPC 7.3% 10.6% 4.2% 10% ± 5% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.32% 0% ± 0%