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Recent electoral history | Ottawa Centre


2019 2021 2025 Projection LPC 55% ± 7% 48.6% 45.2% 62.7% NDP 26% ± 6% 28.5% 32.7% 19.6% CPC 14% ± 4% 13.3% 16.3% 15.6%

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338Canada Ottawa Centre projection

Latest update: February 22, 2026

Ottawa Centre 49% 62% 55% ± 7% LPC 20% 32% 26% ± 6% NDP 10% 18% 14% ± 4% CPC LPC 2025 62.7% 338Canada vote projection | February 22, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa Centre >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | February 22, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Ottawa Centre

LPC 55% ± 7% CPC 14% ± 4% NDP 26% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa Centre 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC IND February 22, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC 49% NDP 28% CPC 18% GPC 3% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 49% NDP 28% CPC 18% GPC 3% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 49% NDP 27% CPC 19% GPC 3% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 62% NDP 20% CPC 16% GPC 1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 62% NDP 20% CPC 16% GPC 1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 62% NDP 20% CPC 16% GPC 1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 63% NDP 20% CPC 16% GPC 1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 63% NDP 20% CPC 16% GPC 1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 63% NDP 20% CPC 15% GPC 1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 63% NDP 20% CPC 15% GPC 1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 63% NDP 21% CPC 15% GPC 1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 62% NDP 21% CPC 15% GPC 1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 61% NDP 22% CPC 15% GPC 1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 61% NDP 22% CPC 14% GPC 1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 61% NDP 23% CPC 14% GPC 1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 61% NDP 23% CPC 14% GPC 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 60% NDP 24% CPC 14% GPC 1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 60% NDP 24% CPC 14% GPC 1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 60% NDP 24% CPC 13% GPC 1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 58% NDP 25% CPC 14% GPC 1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 58% NDP 25% CPC 14% GPC 1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC 57% NDP 26% CPC 14% GPC 1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC 57% NDP 27% CPC 14% GPC 1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC 56% NDP 27% CPC 14% GPC 1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC 55% NDP 27% CPC 15% GPC 1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC 55% NDP 28% CPC 15% GPC 1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC 55% NDP 28% CPC 15% GPC 1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC 55% NDP 28% CPC 15% GPC 1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC 55% NDP 28% CPC 14% GPC 1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC 55% NDP 28% CPC 14% GPC 1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC 55% NDP 28% CPC 14% GPC 1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC 54% NDP 29% CPC 14% GPC 1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC 54% NDP 29% CPC 14% GPC 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC 54% NDP 29% CPC 14% GPC 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC 54% NDP 29% CPC 14% GPC 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC 54% NDP 29% CPC 14% GPC 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC 53% NDP 30% CPC 14% GPC 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC 49% NDP 33% CPC 13% GPC 3% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC 49% NDP 33% CPC 13% GPC 3% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC 49% NDP 33% CPC 13% GPC 3% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC 49% NDP 33% CPC 13% GPC 3% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC 50% NDP 32% CPC 13% GPC 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC 54% NDP 28% CPC 13% GPC 3% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC 55% NDP 27% CPC 14% GPC 2% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC 56% NDP 26% CPC 13% GPC 2% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC 55% NDP 26% CPC 14% GPC 2% 2026-02-22

Odds of winning | Ottawa Centre

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP February 22, 2026 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-01 2026-02-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-08 2026-02-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-15 2026-02-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2026-02-22


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Demographic data | Ottawa Centre

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 85.5% English 5.2% French 1.3% Mandarin 1.3% Arabic 0.7% Spanish 0.7% Cantonese 0.5% PersianOttawa CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 3.8% No diploma 12.4% High school 2.2% Trade 13.9% College / Cégep 1.3% Some university 34.4% Bachelor's 32.0% PostgraduateOttawa CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 75.9% Not visible minority 24.1% Visible minority 5.4% Black 4.5% Chinese 4.1% South Asian 2.8% Arab 1.7% Southeast Asian 1.5% Latin AmericanOttawa CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 46.1% No Religion 23.5% Catholic 5.0% Christian (n.o.s.) 4.9% Muslim 4.2% Anglican 3.4% United Church 2.1% Orthodox 1.9% JewishOttawa CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 58.7% Renter 41.3% OwnerOttawa CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 62.6% Employed 30.4% Not in labour force 7.0% UnemployedOttawa CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 97.5% Non-Indigenous 2.5% Indigenous identity 1.2% First Nations 0.9% Metis 0.2% Inuk 0.1% Others 0.1% MultipleOttawa CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 54.8% Car / truck / van 21.1% Walking 15.4% Public transit 4.9% Bicycle 3.8% OtherOttawa CentreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.