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Canada

Ottawa Centre


Latest projection: July 21, 2024
Toss up LPC/NDP
Ottawa Centre 35% ± 7% LPC 33% ± 7% NDP 23% ± 5% CPC 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 45.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa Centre 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | July 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ottawa Centre

LPC 35% ± 7% CPC 23% ± 5% NDP 33% ± 7% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa Centre 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 35% NDP 34% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 35% NDP 34% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 22% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 35% LPC 35% CPC 22% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 35% NDP 34% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 36% NDP 33% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 35% NDP 33% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 35% NDP 33% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-07-21

Odds of winning | Ottawa Centre

LPC 67% CPC <1% NDP 33% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 21, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 53% NDP 47% CPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 56% NDP 44% CPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 69% NDP 31% CPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 61% NDP 39% CPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 66% NDP 34% CPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 64% NDP 36% CPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 50% LPC 50% CPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 62% NDP 38% CPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 67% NDP 33% CPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 67% NDP 33% CPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 67% NDP 33% CPC <1% 2024-07-21

Recent electoral history | Ottawa Centre



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 48.6% 45.2% 35% ± 7% NDP 28.5% 32.7% 33% ± 7% CPC 13.3% 16.3% 23% ± 5% GPC 7.4% 2.8% 5% ± 4% PPC 1.0% 2.2% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.