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Ottawa Centre



Latest projection: April 15, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Ottawa Centre


Liberal Yasir Naqvi*
Conservative Paul d'Orsonnens
NDP Joel Harden
Green Amanda Rosenstock
Christian Heritage Marie-Chantal Leriche
Communist Cashton Perry
Canadian Future Andrea Chabot
Independent Zed Chebib
Independent Mike Salmon

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Ottawa Centre 57% ± 7% LPC 20% ± 6% NDP 18% ± 5% CPC LPC 2021 45.2% 338Canada vote projection | April 15, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa Centre >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | April 15, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ottawa Centre

LPC 57% ± 7% CPC 18% ± 5% NDP 20% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa Centre 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC 48% NDP 23% CPC 22% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 50% CPC 22% NDP 21% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 53% CPC 21% NDP 19% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 53% CPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 54% CPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 54% CPC 21% NDP 19% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 54% CPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 54% CPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 57% CPC 20% NDP 16% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 57% CPC 21% NDP 16% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 58% CPC 20% NDP 16% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 59% CPC 20% NDP 15% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 59% CPC 20% NDP 15% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 59% CPC 21% NDP 14% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 59% CPC 21% NDP 14% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 61% CPC 21% NDP 13% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 62% CPC 21% NDP 13% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 63% CPC 20% NDP 13% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 62% CPC 20% NDP 13% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 62% CPC 19% NDP 15% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 61% CPC 19% NDP 15% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 61% CPC 20% NDP 15% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 61% CPC 20% NDP 15% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 62% CPC 19% NDP 15% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 61% CPC 19% NDP 15% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 61% CPC 19% NDP 16% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 61% CPC 19% NDP 15% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 57% NDP 20% CPC 18% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 57% NDP 20% CPC 18% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 57% NDP 20% CPC 18% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Ottawa Centre

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC NDP April 15, 2025 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Ottawa Centre



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 48.6% 45.2% 57% ± 7% NDP 28.5% 32.7% 20% ± 6% CPC 13.3% 16.3% 18% ± 5% GPC 7.4% 2.8% 2% ± 2% PPC 1.0% 2.2% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.