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Ottawa Centre



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
NDP leaning
Ottawa Centre 35% ± 7% NDP 32% ± 6% LPC 25% ± 6% CPC 5% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 45.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa Centre 74%▲ NDP 26%▼ LPC <1% CPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ottawa Centre

LPC 32% ± 6% CPC 25% ± 6% NDP 35% ± 7% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa Centre 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 35% NDP 34% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 35% NDP 34% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 36% NDP 34% CPC 22% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 35% LPC 35% CPC 22% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 35% NDP 34% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 36% NDP 33% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 35% NDP 33% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 35% NDP 33% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 35% NDP 33% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 34% LPC 34% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 35% NDP 34% CPC 23% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 35% NDP 34% CPC 22% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 36% NDP 33% CPC 22% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 37% NDP 31% CPC 23% GPC 6% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 36% NDP 32% CPC 23% GPC 6% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 36% NDP 31% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 36% NDP 30% CPC 25% GPC 6% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 35% NDP 31% CPC 25% GPC 6% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 34% NDP 32% CPC 26% GPC 6% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 34% NDP 32% CPC 25% GPC 6% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 35% NDP 32% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 34% NDP 32% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 34% NDP 33% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 35% NDP 32% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 36% NDP 32% CPC 24% GPC 6% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 34% NDP 33% CPC 25% GPC 6% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 33% NDP 33% CPC 25% GPC 5% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 35% LPC 32% CPC 25% GPC 5% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 35% LPC 32% CPC 25% GPC 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Ottawa Centre

LPC 26% CPC <1% NDP 74% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 53% NDP 47% CPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 56% NDP 44% CPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 69% NDP 31% CPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 61% NDP 39% CPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 66% NDP 34% CPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 64% NDP 36% CPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 NDP 50% LPC 50% CPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 62% NDP 38% CPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 67% NDP 33% CPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 67% NDP 33% CPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 67% NDP 33% CPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 67% NDP 33% CPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 NDP 51% LPC 49% CPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 52% NDP 48% CPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 63% NDP 37% CPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 75% NDP 25% CPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 86% NDP 14% CPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 81% NDP 19% CPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 85% NDP 14% CPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 85% NDP 14% CPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 77% NDP 23% CPC 1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 65% NDP 34% CPC 1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 68% NDP 32% CPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 69% NDP 31% CPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 67% NDP 33% CPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 64% NDP 36% CPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 73% NDP 27% CPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 75% NDP 25% CPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 60% NDP 39% CPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 52% NDP 47% CPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 NDP 72% LPC 28% CPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 NDP 74% LPC 26% CPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Ottawa Centre



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 48.6% 45.2% 32% ± 6% NDP 28.5% 32.7% 35% ± 7% CPC 13.3% 16.3% 25% ± 6% GPC 7.4% 2.8% 5% ± 4% PPC 1.0% 2.2% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.