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Canada

Ottawa Centre


MP: Yasir Naqvi (LPC)

Latest projection: July 20, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Ottawa Centre


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 61% ± 7% 48.6% 45.2% 62.7% NDP 23% ± 6% 28.5% 32.7% 19.6% CPC 14% ± 5% 13.3% 16.3% 15.6% GPC 1% ± 1% 7.4% 2.8% 1.1% PPC 0% ± 0% 1.0% 2.2% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Ottawa-Centre


Ottawa Centre 61% ± 7% LPC 23% ± 6%▲ NDP 14% ± 5% CPC LPC 2025 62.7% 338Canada vote projection | July 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa Centre >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% CPC Odds of winning | July 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ottawa Centre

LPC 61% ± 7% CPC 14% ± 5% NDP 23% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa Centre 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 20, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 35% LPC 31% CPC 26% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 34% LPC 33% CPC 26% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 34% LPC 33% CPC 26% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 36% NDP 32% CPC 24% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 39% NDP 30% CPC 23% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 44% NDP 26% CPC 23% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 47% NDP 23% CPC 22% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 48% NDP 22% CPC 22% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 48% NDP 23% CPC 22% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 50% CPC 22% NDP 21% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 53% CPC 21% NDP 19% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 53% CPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 54% CPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 54% CPC 21% NDP 19% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 54% CPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 54% CPC 20% NDP 19% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 57% CPC 20% NDP 16% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 57% CPC 21% NDP 16% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 58% CPC 20% NDP 16% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 59% CPC 20% NDP 15% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 59% CPC 20% NDP 15% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 59% CPC 21% NDP 14% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 59% CPC 21% NDP 14% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 61% CPC 21% NDP 13% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 62% CPC 21% NDP 13% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 63% CPC 20% NDP 13% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 62% CPC 20% NDP 13% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 62% CPC 19% NDP 15% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 61% CPC 19% NDP 15% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 61% CPC 20% NDP 15% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 61% CPC 20% NDP 15% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 62% CPC 19% NDP 15% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 61% CPC 19% NDP 15% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 61% CPC 19% NDP 16% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 61% CPC 19% NDP 15% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 57% NDP 20% CPC 18% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 57% NDP 20% CPC 18% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 57% NDP 20% CPC 18% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 57% NDP 21% CPC 18% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 57% NDP 20% CPC 18% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 56% NDP 20% CPC 19% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 56% NDP 20% CPC 19% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 57% NDP 20% CPC 19% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 50% NDP 26% CPC 19% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 51% NDP 26% CPC 18% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 51% NDP 27% CPC 18% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 50% NDP 27% CPC 18% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 49% NDP 28% CPC 18% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 49% NDP 28% CPC 18% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 49% NDP 28% CPC 18% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 49% NDP 27% CPC 19% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 62% NDP 20% CPC 16% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 62% NDP 20% CPC 16% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 62% NDP 20% CPC 16% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 63% NDP 20% CPC 16% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 63% NDP 20% CPC 16% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 63% NDP 20% CPC 15% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 63% NDP 20% CPC 15% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 63% NDP 21% CPC 15% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 62% NDP 21% CPC 15% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 61% NDP 22% CPC 15% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 61% NDP 22% CPC 14% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 61% NDP 23% CPC 14% 2025-07-20 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Ottawa Centre

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP July 20, 2025 2025-01-12 NDP 81% LPC 17% CPC 1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 NDP 60% LPC 39% CPC 1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 NDP 56% LPC 43% CPC 1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 74% NDP 26% CPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 95% NDP 5% CPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-07-20 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader