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Canada


Ottawa West–Nepean (federal)


MP: Anita Vandenbeld (LPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

Toss up LPC/CPC
Ottawa West–Nepean 36% ± 7%▲ 35% ± 7% 21% ± 5% 7% ± 4% LPC 2021 45.15% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Ottawa West–Nepean 57%▲ 43%▼ <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Ottawa West–Nepean

LPC 36% ± 7% CPC 35% ± 7% NDP 21% ± 5% GPC 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa West–Nepean 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Ottawa West–Nepean

LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Ottawa West–Nepean



2015 2019 2021 Proj. LPC 55.9% 45.6% 45.15% 36% ± 7% CPC 30.0% 27.1% 28.63% 35% ± 7% NDP 9.8% 18.7% 19.43% 21% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.3% 3.35% 2% ± 2% GPC 2.8% 6.3% 2.85% 7% ± 4%