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Canada


Victoria (federal)


MP: Laurel Collins (NDP)


Latest projection: February 25, 2024

NDP safe hold
Victoria 40% ± 7%▲ 22% ± 5%▼ 20% ± 5% 16% ± 5% NDP 2021 43.84% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 25, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Victoria >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 25, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Victoria

LPC 22% ± 5% CPC 20% ± 5% NDP 40% ± 7% GPC 16% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Victoria 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Odds of winning | Victoria

LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP >99% GPC <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC

Recent electoral history | Victoria



2015 2019 2021 Proj. NDP 42.3% 33.2% 43.84% 40% ± 7% LPC 11.8% 22.3% 27.18% 22% ± 5% CPC 11.8% 12.6% 13.86% 20% ± 5% GPC 32.9% 29.9% 11.2% 16% ± 5% PPC 0.0% 1.3% 3.09% 2% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0% ± 0%