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Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee



Latest projection: March 28, 2025
CPC likely
Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee 50% ± 8% CPC 35% ± 8% LPC 8% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 4% GPC 3% ± 3% PPC CPC 2021 43.8% 338Canada vote projection | March 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee

LPC 35% ± 8% CPC 50% ± 8% NDP 8% ± 4% GPC 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC March 28, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 50% LPC 23% NDP 16% GPC 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 51% LPC 24% NDP 14% GPC 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 51% LPC 31% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 51% LPC 31% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 51% LPC 31% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 50% LPC 34% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 50% LPC 34% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2025-03-28 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee

LPC 1% CPC 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP March 28, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 45.1% 43.8% 50% ± 8% LPC 23.4% 19.8% 35% ± 8% NDP 18.1% 21.7% 8% ± 4% GPC 10.7% 5.2% 5% ± 4% PPC 2.6% 9.5% 3% ± 3%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.