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Canada

Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee


Liberal Anna Warwick Sears
Conservative Scott Anderson
NDP Leah Main
Green Blair Visscher

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee 50% ± 8% CPC 41% ± 8% LPC 6% ± 3% NDP 3% ± 3% GPC CPC 2021 43.8% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee 90%▼ CPC 10%▲ LPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee

LPC 41% ± 8% CPC 50% ± 8% NDP 6% ± 3% GPC 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP GPC April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 50% LPC 23% NDP 16% GPC 6% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 51% LPC 24% NDP 14% GPC 6% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 51% LPC 30% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 51% LPC 31% NDP 10% GPC 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 51% LPC 31% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 51% LPC 31% NDP 9% GPC 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 50% LPC 34% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 50% LPC 34% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 50% LPC 35% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 49% LPC 35% NDP 8% GPC 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 7% GPC 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 49% LPC 36% NDP 7% GPC 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 7% GPC 4% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 49% LPC 38% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 48% LPC 39% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 49% LPC 39% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 50% LPC 39% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 50% LPC 39% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 49% LPC 40% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 49% LPC 42% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 49% LPC 41% NDP 7% GPC 3% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 50% LPC 41% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 50% LPC 41% NDP 6% GPC 3% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee

LPC 10% CPC 90% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 98% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 96% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 94% LPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 92% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 87% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 86% LPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 88% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 89% LPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 91% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 90% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 45.1% 43.8% 50% ± 8% LPC 23.4% 19.8% 41% ± 8% NDP 18.1% 21.7% 6% ± 3% GPC 10.7% 5.2% 3% ± 3% PPC 2.6% 9.5% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.