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Canada


Chicoutimi–Le Fjord (federal)


MP: Richard Martel (CPC)


Latest projection: September 24, 2023

CPC likely hold
Chicoutimi–Le Fjord 45% ± 8% 32% ± 7% 14% ± 5% 5% ± 3% 3% ± 2% CPC 2021 40.95% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Chicoutimi–Le Fjord 98%▼ 2%▲ <1% Odds of winning | September 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Chicoutimi–Le Fjord

LPC 14% ± 5% CPC 45% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 3% BQ 32% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Chicoutimi–Le Fjord 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Odds of winning | Chicoutimi–Le Fjord

LPC <1% CPC 98% NDP <1% GPC <1% BQ 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ

Recent electoral history | Chicoutimi–Le Fjord



2015 2019 2021 Proj. CPC 16.6% 36.8% 40.95% 45% ± 8% BQ 20.5% 34.9% 33.38% 32% ± 7% LPC 31.1% 17.1% 18.35% 14% ± 5% NDP 29.7% 6.5% 4.62% 5% ± 3% PPC 0.0% 0.8% 1.54% 1% ± 1% GPC 2.1% 3.2% 1.16% 3% ± 2%