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Canada

Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
LPC likely
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle 30% ± 7% LPC 21% ± 6% CPC 21% ± 6% BQ 19% ± 5% NDP 6% ± 4% GPC LPC 2021 52.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle 97% LPC 1%▼ CPC 1%▼ BQ <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle

LPC 30% ± 7% CPC 21% ± 6% NDP 19% ± 5% GPC 6% ± 4% BQ 21% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC 42% BQ 19% CPC 18% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC 42% BQ 20% CPC 17% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC 43% BQ 19% CPC 16% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC 44% BQ 18% CPC 17% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC 41% CPC 20% BQ 17% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC 41% CPC 20% BQ 17% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC 37% CPC 23% BQ 18% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC 36% CPC 23% BQ 18% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC 36% CPC 22% BQ 18% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC 37% CPC 22% BQ 18% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC 37% CPC 22% BQ 18% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC 37% CPC 22% BQ 18% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC 38% CPC 21% BQ 18% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC 38% CPC 21% BQ 17% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC 37% CPC 23% BQ 17% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC 38% CPC 22% BQ 17% NDP 14% GPC 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC 39% CPC 22% BQ 16% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC 39% CPC 21% BQ 17% NDP 15% GPC 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC 38% CPC 21% BQ 17% NDP 15% GPC 6% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC 35% CPC 20% BQ 20% NDP 17% GPC 6% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC 33% CPC 20% BQ 20% NDP 18% GPC 6% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC 33% CPC 20% BQ 20% NDP 18% GPC 6% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC 33% BQ 20% CPC 20% NDP 18% GPC 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC 34% BQ 20% CPC 19% NDP 18% GPC 6% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC 34% BQ 21% CPC 19% NDP 17% GPC 6% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC 34% BQ 21% CPC 19% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC 34% BQ 21% CPC 20% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 33% CPC 21% BQ 21% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 32% CPC 22% BQ 21% NDP 17% GPC 5% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 31% CPC 22% BQ 21% NDP 17% GPC 6% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 30% CPC 21% BQ 21% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 30% CPC 21% BQ 21% NDP 19% GPC 6% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle

LPC 97% CPC 1% NDP <1% BQ 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 LPC >99% BQ <1% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 LPC >99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 LPC 99% BQ <1% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 LPC 98% CPC 1% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 LPC 98% CPC 2% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 LPC 97% CPC 2% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 LPC 97% CPC 1% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 52.7% 52.2% 30% ± 7% BQ 17.2% 15.7% 21% ± 6% NDP 11.9% 13.1% 19% ± 5% CPC 10.5% 11.9% 21% ± 6% PPC 1.0% 4.2% 2% ± 3% GPC 5.6% 2.8% 6% ± 4%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.