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Canada

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord



Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up CPC/BQ
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord 41% ± 8% BQ 39% ± 8% CPC 10% ± 4%▼ LPC 6% ± 4% NDP CPC 2021 40.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Chicoutimi—Le Fjord 64%▲ BQ 36%▼ CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

LPC 10% ± 4% CPC 39% ± 8% NDP 6% ± 4% BQ 41% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 46% BQ 36% LPC 11% NDP 4% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 44% BQ 38% LPC 11% NDP 4% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 43% BQ 38% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 46% BQ 35% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 47% BQ 34% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 47% BQ 34% LPC 12% NDP 4% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 46% BQ 36% LPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 45% BQ 36% LPC 10% NDP 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 45% BQ 36% LPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 45% BQ 36% LPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 44% BQ 36% LPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 44% BQ 36% LPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 44% BQ 36% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 44% BQ 36% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 45% BQ 35% LPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 44% BQ 35% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 44% BQ 34% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 43% BQ 35% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 43% BQ 36% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 43% BQ 36% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 43% BQ 36% LPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 43% BQ 37% LPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 42% BQ 37% LPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 41% BQ 38% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 41% BQ 38% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 41% BQ 38% LPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 41% BQ 38% LPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 40% CPC 39% LPC 12% NDP 5% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 40% CPC 39% LPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 40% BQ 40% LPC 11% NDP 5% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 41% CPC 39% LPC 11% NDP 6% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 41% CPC 39% LPC 10% NDP 6% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

LPC <1% CPC 36% NDP <1% BQ 64% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ December 15, 2024 2024-05-12 CPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-12 2024-05-19 CPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-19 2024-05-26 CPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-05-26 2024-06-02 CPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-02 2024-06-09 CPC 98% BQ 2% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-09 2024-06-16 CPC 99% BQ 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-16 2024-06-23 CPC 96% BQ 4% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-23 2024-06-30 CPC 94% BQ 6% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-07 CPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-07 2024-07-14 CPC 92% BQ 8% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-14 2024-07-21 CPC 91% BQ 9% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-21 2024-07-28 CPC 91% BQ 9% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-07-28 2024-08-04 CPC 90% BQ 10% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-04 2024-08-11 CPC 91% BQ 9% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-11 2024-08-18 CPC 93% BQ 7% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-18 2024-08-25 CPC 93% BQ 7% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-08-25 2024-09-01 CPC 95% BQ 5% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-01 2024-09-08 CPC 90% BQ 10% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-08 2024-09-15 CPC 89% BQ 11% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-15 2024-09-22 CPC 88% BQ 12% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-22 2024-09-29 CPC 86% BQ 14% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-10-06 CPC 85% BQ 15% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-13 CPC 81% BQ 19% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-20 CPC 73% BQ 27% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-10-27 CPC 68% BQ 32% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-10-27 2024-11-03 CPC 69% BQ 31% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-03 2024-11-10 CPC 69% BQ 31% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-10 2024-11-17 BQ 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-17 2024-11-24 BQ 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-11-24 2024-12-01 CPC 53% BQ 47% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-01 2024-12-08 BQ 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-08 2024-12-15 BQ 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 35.7% 40.4% 39% ± 8% BQ 35.0% 34.1% 41% ± 8% LPC 16.7% 18.2% 10% ± 4% NDP 8.1% 4.7% 6% ± 4% PPC 0.9% 1.4% 1% ± 1% GPC 3.1% 1.2% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.