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Canada

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord


MP: Richard Martel (CPC)

Latest projection: July 20, 2025
LPC leaning

Recent electoral history | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 35% ± 7% 16.7% 18.2% 31.1% CPC 31% ± 7% 35.7% 40.4% 34.1% BQ 30% ± 7% 35.0% 34.1% 31.2% NDP 2% ± 2% 8.1% 4.7% 1.9% GPC 1% ± 1% 3.1% 1.2% 0.9% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.9% 1.4% 0.7%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Chicoutimi—Le Fjord


Chicoutimi—Le Fjord 35% ± 7% LPC 31% ± 7% CPC 30% ± 7% BQ CPC 2025 34.1% 338Canada vote projection | July 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Chicoutimi—Le Fjord 71%▲ LPC 19%▼ CPC 10%▼ BQ Odds of winning | July 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

LPC 35% ± 7% CPC 31% ± 7% BQ 30% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ July 20, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 41% CPC 41% LPC 9% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 42% BQ 40% LPC 9% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 42% BQ 40% LPC 10% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 41% CPC 37% LPC 13% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 39% CPC 36% LPC 16% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 38% CPC 36% LPC 17% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 37% CPC 36% LPC 18% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 36% BQ 36% LPC 20% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 36% BQ 35% LPC 21% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 36% BQ 34% LPC 22% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 35% BQ 34% LPC 23% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 35% BQ 33% LPC 24% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 35% BQ 33% LPC 24% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 35% BQ 33% LPC 24% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 35% BQ 34% LPC 23% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 35% BQ 34% LPC 24% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 34% BQ 33% LPC 26% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 34% BQ 33% LPC 26% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 34% BQ 32% LPC 27% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 35% BQ 32% LPC 27% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 35% BQ 31% LPC 27% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 35% BQ 30% LPC 27% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 35% BQ 30% LPC 28% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 37% LPC 29% BQ 28% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 37% LPC 29% BQ 27% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 37% LPC 30% BQ 27% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 37% LPC 30% BQ 27% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 37% LPC 31% BQ 27% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 37% LPC 31% BQ 26% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 37% LPC 31% BQ 26% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 38% LPC 31% BQ 26% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 38% LPC 30% BQ 26% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 38% LPC 30% BQ 26% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 39% LPC 30% BQ 25% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 39% LPC 30% BQ 25% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 40% LPC 27% BQ 27% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 41% LPC 27% BQ 27% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 41% LPC 27% BQ 26% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 40% LPC 28% BQ 26% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 40% LPC 28% BQ 27% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 40% LPC 27% BQ 27% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 40% LPC 27% BQ 27% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 40% LPC 27% BQ 27% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 40% BQ 27% LPC 26% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 39% BQ 30% LPC 25% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 39% BQ 31% LPC 25% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 39% BQ 31% LPC 24% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 40% BQ 31% LPC 24% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 40% BQ 30% LPC 24% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 40% BQ 31% LPC 23% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 39% BQ 32% LPC 24% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 34% BQ 31% LPC 31% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 34% BQ 31% LPC 31% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 34% BQ 31% LPC 31% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 34% BQ 31% LPC 31% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 34% BQ 31% LPC 31% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 34% BQ 31% LPC 31% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 33% BQ 32% LPC 31% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 33% BQ 32% LPC 32% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 33% CPC 32% BQ 31% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 35% CPC 31% BQ 30% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 35% CPC 31% BQ 30% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 35% CPC 31% BQ 30% 2025-07-20 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

LPC 71% CPC 19% NDP <1% BQ 10% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ July 20, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 51% CPC 49% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 61% BQ 39% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 63% BQ 37% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 75% CPC 25% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 63% CPC 37% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 58% CPC 42% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 51% BQ 49% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 61% BQ 39% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 59% BQ 41% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 61% BQ 39% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 63% BQ 37% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 64% BQ 36% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 62% BQ 38% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 58% BQ 42% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 54% BQ 46% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 52% BQ 47% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 53% BQ 44% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 62% BQ 35% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 69% BQ 28% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 77% BQ 19% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 79% BQ 16% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 81% BQ 14% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 90% LPC 7% BQ 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 91% LPC 7% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 88% LPC 10% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 88% LPC 11% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 86% LPC 13% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 86% LPC 13% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 86% LPC 13% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 88% LPC 11% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 91% LPC 8% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 92% LPC 8% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 94% LPC 6% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 95% LPC 5% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 98% LPC 1% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 99% LPC 1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 99% LPC 1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 98% LPC 1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 98% LPC 1% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 CPC 98% LPC 1% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 CPC 98% LPC 1% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 CPC 98% LPC 1% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 CPC 99% BQ 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 CPC 96% BQ 4% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 CPC 92% BQ 8% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 CPC 94% BQ 6% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 CPC 95% BQ 5% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 CPC 96% BQ 4% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 96% BQ 4% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 92% BQ 8% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 63% BQ 20% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 63% BQ 20% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 61% BQ 20% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 62% LPC 19% BQ 19% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 57% LPC 22% BQ 21% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 54% BQ 24% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 47% BQ 30% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 44% BQ 28% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 47% CPC 33% BQ 20% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 63% CPC 24% BQ 13% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 68% CPC 21% BQ 11% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 71% CPC 19% BQ 10% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader