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Canada

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord



Latest projection: April 17, 2025
CPC likely

Candidates | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord


Liberal Stephane Proulx
Conservative Richard Martel*
NDP Raphaël Émond
Green Yves Laporte
Bloc Quebecois Marc St-Hilaire
PPC Francois Sabourin

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Chicoutimi—Le Fjord 40% ± 8% CPC 28% ± 7% LPC 27% ± 6%▲ BQ 3% ± 2% NDP CPC 2021 40.4% 338Canada vote projection | April 17, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Chicoutimi—Le Fjord 98% CPC 1% LPC 1%▲ BQ Odds of winning | April 17, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

LPC 28% ± 7% CPC 40% ± 8% BQ 27% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC BQ April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 36% BQ 35% LPC 21% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 36% BQ 34% LPC 22% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 35% BQ 34% LPC 23% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 35% BQ 33% LPC 24% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 35% BQ 33% LPC 24% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 35% BQ 33% LPC 24% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 35% BQ 34% LPC 23% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 35% BQ 34% LPC 24% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 34% BQ 33% LPC 26% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 34% BQ 33% LPC 26% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 34% BQ 32% LPC 27% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 35% BQ 32% LPC 27% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 35% BQ 31% LPC 27% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 35% BQ 30% LPC 27% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 35% BQ 30% LPC 28% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 37% LPC 29% BQ 28% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 37% LPC 29% BQ 27% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 37% LPC 30% BQ 27% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 37% LPC 30% BQ 27% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 37% LPC 31% BQ 27% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 37% LPC 31% BQ 26% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 37% LPC 31% BQ 26% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 38% LPC 31% BQ 26% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 38% LPC 30% BQ 26% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 38% LPC 30% BQ 26% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 39% LPC 30% BQ 25% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 39% LPC 30% BQ 25% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 40% LPC 27% BQ 27% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 41% LPC 27% BQ 27% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 41% LPC 27% BQ 26% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 40% LPC 28% BQ 26% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 40% LPC 28% BQ 27% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

LPC 1% CPC 98% NDP <1% BQ 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-03-15 2025-04-01 2025-04-15 2025-05-01 2025-05-15 Election 2025 Campaign begins LPC CPC NDP BQ April 17, 2025 2025-03-09 CPC 61% BQ 39% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 59% BQ 41% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 CPC 61% BQ 39% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 CPC 63% BQ 37% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 CPC 64% BQ 36% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 CPC 62% BQ 38% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 CPC 58% BQ 42% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 CPC 54% BQ 46% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 CPC 52% BQ 47% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 CPC 53% BQ 44% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 CPC 62% BQ 35% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 CPC 69% BQ 28% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 CPC 77% BQ 19% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 CPC 79% BQ 16% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 CPC 81% BQ 14% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 CPC 90% LPC 7% BQ 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 CPC 91% LPC 7% BQ 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 CPC 88% LPC 10% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 CPC 88% LPC 11% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 CPC 86% LPC 13% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 CPC 86% LPC 13% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 CPC 86% LPC 13% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 CPC 88% LPC 11% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 CPC 91% LPC 8% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 CPC 92% LPC 8% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 CPC 94% LPC 6% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 CPC 95% LPC 5% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 CPC 98% LPC 1% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 CPC 99% LPC 1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 CPC 99% LPC 1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 CPC 98% LPC 1% BQ <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 CPC 98% LPC 1% BQ 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord



2019 2021 Proj. CPC 35.7% 40.4% 40% ± 8% LPC 16.7% 18.2% 28% ± 7% BQ 35.0% 34.1% 27% ± 6% NDP 8.1% 4.7% 3% ± 2% GPC 3.1% 1.2% 2% ± 2% PPC 0.9% 1.4% 1% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.