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Recent electoral history | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord


2019 2021 2025 Projection BQ 36% ± 7% 35.0% 34.1% 31.2% CPC 29% ± 6% 35.7% 40.4% 34.1% LPC 27% ± 6% 16.7% 18.2% 31.1% NDP 4% ± 3% 8.1% 4.7% 2.0%

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338Canada Chicoutimi—Le Fjord projection

Latest update: January 25, 2026

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord 29% 43% 36% ± 7% BQ 23% 35% 29% ± 6% CPC 21% 33% 27% ± 6% LPC 1% 7% 4% ± 3% NDP 0% 5% 3% ± 2% GPC CPC 2025 34.1% 338Canada vote projection | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Chicoutimi—Le Fjord 90%▼ BQ 7%▲ CPC 3%▼ LPC Odds of winning | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

Popular vote projection | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

LPC 27% ± 6% CPC 29% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 3% BQ 36% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC January 25, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 40% BQ 30% LPC 24% NDP 3% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 40% BQ 31% LPC 23% NDP 3% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 39% BQ 32% LPC 24% NDP 2% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 34% BQ 31% LPC 31% NDP 2% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 34% BQ 31% LPC 31% NDP 2% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 34% BQ 31% LPC 31% NDP 2% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 34% BQ 31% LPC 31% NDP 2% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 34% BQ 31% LPC 31% NDP 2% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 34% BQ 31% LPC 31% NDP 2% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 33% BQ 32% LPC 31% NDP 2% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 33% BQ 32% LPC 32% NDP 2% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 33% CPC 32% BQ 31% NDP 2% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 35% CPC 31% BQ 30% NDP 2% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 35% CPC 31% BQ 30% NDP 2% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 35% CPC 31% BQ 30% NDP 2% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 35% BQ 31% CPC 30% NDP 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 36% BQ 30% CPC 30% NDP 2% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 35% BQ 31% CPC 30% NDP 2% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 34% BQ 32% CPC 31% NDP 2% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 33% BQ 32% CPC 31% NDP 2% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 33% BQ 32% CPC 31% NDP 2% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 BQ 33% LPC 32% CPC 31% NDP 3% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 BQ 33% LPC 32% CPC 31% NDP 2% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 BQ 32% CPC 32% LPC 32% NDP 2% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 33% BQ 32% LPC 31% NDP 2% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 33% BQ 32% LPC 31% NDP 2% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 BQ 33% CPC 33% LPC 30% NDP 2% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 BQ 33% CPC 33% LPC 30% NDP 2% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 BQ 33% CPC 33% LPC 30% NDP 2% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 BQ 33% CPC 33% LPC 30% NDP 2% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 33% BQ 33% LPC 30% NDP 2% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 34% BQ 33% LPC 29% NDP 2% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 CPC 33% BQ 33% LPC 29% NDP 2% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 33% BQ 33% LPC 29% NDP 2% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 BQ 35% CPC 31% LPC 29% NDP 2% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 BQ 36% CPC 31% LPC 29% NDP 2% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 BQ 36% CPC 31% LPC 28% NDP 2% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 BQ 36% CPC 29% LPC 28% NDP 4% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 BQ 36% CPC 29% LPC 28% NDP 4% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 BQ 36% CPC 29% LPC 28% NDP 4% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 BQ 36% CPC 28% LPC 28% NDP 4% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 BQ 36% CPC 29% LPC 27% NDP 4% 2026-01-25

Odds of winning | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

LPC 3% CPC 7% NDP <1% BQ 90% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ January 25, 2026 2025-04-26 CPC 96% BQ 4% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 CPC 96% BQ 4% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 CPC 92% BQ 8% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 CPC 63% BQ 20% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 CPC 63% BQ 20% LPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 CPC 61% BQ 20% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 CPC 62% LPC 19% BQ 19% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 CPC 57% LPC 22% BQ 21% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 CPC 54% BQ 24% LPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 CPC 47% BQ 30% LPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 CPC 44% BQ 28% LPC 27% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 47% CPC 33% BQ 20% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 2025-07-06 LPC 63% CPC 24% BQ 13% NDP <1% 2025-07-06 2025-07-13 LPC 68% CPC 21% BQ 11% NDP <1% 2025-07-13 2025-07-20 LPC 71% CPC 19% BQ 10% NDP <1% 2025-07-20 2025-07-27 LPC 70% CPC 15% BQ 14% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-03 LPC 74% CPC 13% BQ 12% NDP <1% 2025-08-03 2025-08-10 LPC 64% BQ 21% CPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-08-10 2025-08-17 LPC 54% BQ 27% CPC 20% NDP <1% 2025-08-17 2025-08-24 LPC 45% BQ 32% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-08-24 2025-08-31 LPC 41% BQ 35% CPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-09-07 BQ 49% LPC 29% CPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-09-07 2025-09-14 BQ 41% LPC 31% CPC 28% NDP <1% 2025-09-14 2025-09-21 BQ 35% CPC 33% LPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-09-21 2025-09-28 CPC 43% BQ 36% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-10-05 CPC 44% BQ 35% LPC 21% NDP <1% 2025-10-05 2025-10-12 BQ 47% CPC 40% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-10-12 2025-10-19 BQ 50% CPC 37% LPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-10-19 2025-10-26 BQ 48% CPC 40% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-10-26 2025-11-02 BQ 48% CPC 40% LPC 12% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-11-09 CPC 48% BQ 42% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-11-09 2025-11-16 CPC 54% BQ 38% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-11-16 2025-11-23 BQ 46% CPC 46% LPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-11-30 CPC 46% BQ 45% LPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-11-30 2025-12-07 BQ 71% CPC 19% LPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-12-07 2025-12-14 BQ 75% CPC 18% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-12-14 2025-12-21 BQ 82% CPC 14% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-12-21 2025-12-28 BQ 87% CPC 8% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-12-28 2026-01-04 BQ 87% CPC 8% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2026-01-04 2026-01-11 BQ 88% CPC 7% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2026-01-11 2026-01-18 BQ 91% CPC 6% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2026-01-18 2026-01-25 BQ 90% CPC 7% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2026-01-25


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Demographic data | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

Canadian Census, 2021
Language most spoken at home 98.7% French 0.7% English 0.1% Spanish 0.1% Arabic 0.1% Algonquian 0.0% Portuguese 0.0% PersianChicoutimi—Le FjordSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 11.6% No diploma 15.0% High school 26.9% Trade 20.5% College / Cégep 3.8% Some university 14.3% Bachelor's 7.9% PostgraduateChicoutimi—Le FjordSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 97.7% Not visible minority 2.3% Visible minority 1.1% Black 0.3% Arab 0.3% Latin American 0.1% Chinese 0.1% Southeast Asian 0.1% South AsianChicoutimi—Le FjordSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 71.3% Catholic 21.2% No Religion 5.5% Christian (n.o.s.) 0.7% Muslim 0.4% Other Christian 0.3% Other Religions 0.2% Baptist 0.1% Jehovah's WitnessChicoutimi—Le FjordSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 62.3% Owner 37.7% RenterChicoutimi—Le FjordSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 55.5% Employed 40.9% Not in labour force 3.6% UnemployedChicoutimi—Le FjordSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 96.1% Non-Indigenous 3.9% Indigenous identity 2.1% Metis 1.5% First Nations 0.2% Others 0.1% MultipleChicoutimi—Le FjordSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 91.6% Car / truck / van 4.0% Walking 2.0% Other 1.9% Public transit 0.4% BicycleChicoutimi—Le FjordSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.